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So they didn’t publish the letter then. Ho Hum

Sirs,

Carole Cadwalladr says (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/17/how-to-survive-the-broligarchy-20-lessons-for-the-post-truth-world-donald-trump) that “Elon Musk isn’t worrying about the midterms. He’s thinking about flying a SpaceX rocket to Mars and raping and pillaging its rare earth minerals before anyone else can get there.” That Musk wants to get to Mars is well known, before anyone else is rather assumed. But for rare earths? Umm, no.

I write as one who actually did advise Musk, some years back, on the use of rare earths in his rockets. The Earth’s lithosphere itself contains some 10 million billion (yes, m, then b) tonnes of rare earths – and that’s just for one of the 17 of them. An 80 million year supply at current usage rates. Mars varies from 40 to 250 million miles from Earth. Transport costs are in the millions of dollars per kg, maybe tens of millions round trip at present. Rare earths cost between 50 cents and a couple of hundred dollars per kg right here right now dependent upon which one.

Getting to Mars for rare earths is just not one of those things. I’m unsure as to which of mining, geology, transport costs or capitalism Ms. Cadwalladr is uncertain about but it’s at least one of, if not a combination or all.

yours etc

52 thoughts on “So they didn’t publish the letter then. Ho Hum”

  1. Very true. There is no physical export from Mars that is going to be worth the cost of bringing it back to Earth. Not even precious metals. However if Musk’s aim of true colonization is achieved, the “Life on Mars” reality TV series could be a great money spinner. Consequently the first wave of colonization is likely to consist of a disproportionate number of settlers chosen as “eye candy” rather than technical skill and ability to work hard in difficult conditions. The first structures built are likely to be for habitation, power, air and water then closely followed by the hair and nail salon. Only then will food production become a goal.

  2. Bloke in North Dorset

    Even if Elon’s aims were to bring back rare earth metals, so what? It’s not like there’s some colony of natives that need them for survival.

    She really is stark raving bonkers.

  3. Remember only a couple of years ago Elon Musk could do no wrong, as far as the media was concerned?

    Then they discovered he’s mildly right of centre, which is why the Labour Party was coordinating with the Democrats to arrest and imprison Musk and confiscate his businesses if Trump lost.

  4. How much dumb bitch juice does Carole Cockmongler guzzle in an average day anyway?

    Listen to women of colour. Everything bad that happened on the internet happened to them first. The history of technology is that it is only when it affects white men that it’s considered a problem. Look at how technology is already being used to profile and target immigrants. Know that you’re next

    Ah, yes. The world’s most productive citizens: fat black women. Ooga booga magic fondleslab be’s raciss innit

    Protect your private life. The broligarchy doesn’t want you to have one. Read Shoshana Zuboff’s The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: they need to know exactly who you are to sell you more shit. We’re now beyond that. Surveillance Authoritarianism is next. Watch The Lives of Others, the beautifully told film about surveillance in 80s east Berlin. Act as if you are now living in East Germany and Meta/Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp is the Stasi. It is.

    Brb, my mate got shot by border guards trying to escape from Facebook.

    Take the piss. Humour is a weapon. Any man who feels the need to build a rocket is not overconfident about his masculinity. Work with that.

    Tell us a joke then you miserable prawn-faced cow.

  5. The Left are so poor at doing good things they have to make up offences to accuse others of committing and the fact that they themselves pretend not to do them makes them look good.
    So mining is the latest fashion as I suppose we all know TGQT+zrtphobia is stalling and transphobia is losing its shine. Islamophobia was always a bit of a non-starter because it’s so easily proved by killing some Lefties daughter after giving her a bit of a bonking with your mates or, rather more satisfyingly, throwing Owen Jones off a tall building. Admittedly, raping and pillaging an uninhabited planet is a bit of a pathetic concept but then Ms Catweazle is, um, a bit pathetic. Apologies to jgh for her incorrect naming.
    The perfect example is the Labour prat – sorry, MP – who wants to ruin farmers because Fatcher did that to miners 40 years ago, conveniently overlooking the fact that his minister of energy security (!) would machine gun any miners he came across. When people accuse the current rabble of morons and thieves in power of being sixth form politicians I think they’re about 15 years out.

  6. Thatcher didn’t close any mines. Not one.
    Her government just stopped subsidising them.
    An option which should be copied for the farmland owners if Labour are to be consistent.

  7. Any man who feels the need to build a rocket is not overconfident about his masculinity.

    Is she talking about the man with so many kids, he has to give them serial numbers?

  8. The only profit I can imagine coming from the colonisation of Mars is shipping convicts there.

    Perhaps you could grant the illegals asylum on the condition that they reside in a particular British territory – Mars. Don’t know if it’d cost more than the bribes to Rwanda!!

  9. If Elon has any access to rare minerals on Mars then he’ll be using them on Mars to develop Mars itself.

    If he needs stuff like Lithium, it’s likely to be found on Mars in similar quantities to Earth given that Mars developed in pretty much the same conditions as Earth did, the only exception being the Thea impactor.

    The gravity on Mars is a fraction of that on Earth, so sending out mining teams for stuff not found on Mars would go out to the asteroid belt rather than anywhere else, but that isn’t going to happen for a long time.

    The vast majority of goods shipped will be finished goods from Earth to Mars, the only thing coming back will be people.

  10. “Protect your private life. The broligarchy doesn’t want you to have one. Read Shoshana Zuboff’s The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: they need to know exactly who you are to sell you more shit. We’re now beyond that. Surveillance Authoritarianism is next. ”

    This is pure comedy gold…
    The people who actually started the ET Phone Home monetisation scheme of “private” data are some of the staunchest supporters of the Progressive Save The Planet Democrat Cause…
    Each and every one of them also has been in the top 5 of Richest People on the Planet at one time…
    The people who get wet panties just dreaming about Total Surveillance are, in fact, Proud Progressives..
    It is Labour which even contemplates a “Dob in Your Neighbour” scheme to “Aid the StaSi Police in their Endeavours”.

    She truly is blind as the proverbial bat ….

  11. BiW – Her argument is that she’s totally not obsessed with the richest man in the world, who has a tiny penis according to Carole Cadfael. Also it’s very important that Elon Musk isn’t able to spy on her purchases of boxed wine and cat litter:

    Pay in cash. Ask yourself what an international drug trafficker would do, and do that. They’re not going to the dead drop by Uber or putting 20kg of crack cocaine on a credit card. In the broligarchy, every data point is a weapon. Download Signal, the encrypted messaging app. Turn on disappearing messages.

    Colonising Mars will never make money. Mars is a shithole anyway, we need O’Neill cylinders to distribute humanity across the solar system in comfort and style. Instead of squatting in freezing holes on failed planets, let’s build our own planets.

  12. I can’t trust anybody who can’t even spell ‘Cadwallader’ correctly.

    Cadwaladr (sometimes with two l’s) is the correct spelling for the 7thC Welsh prince.

  13. These people assume that tech entrepreneurs create companies to make lots of money, when it’s really about solving interesting problems. Most of these people don’t care that much about personal wealth (houses, yachts, cars, clothes). They want to do things and the money enables that. Some things might be profitable, but if they have the money to do unprofitable things, they do.

    Like Steve Jobs could have taken his money from his first time at Apple and just lived on that. He drove a nice Mercedes, lived in a nice house, but nothing extraordinary. He wore Levi’s jeans to work. But he put money into companies like Pixar and NeXT because they were interesting projects to him.

  14. I’m surprised she still has a platform after her previous travails, but then I guess the Graun feels it needs to support the idiot sisterhood.

  15. Tim

    Your mistake was to use the patriarchal “Sirs”. No letter to the Guardian addressed thus is going anywhere but the bin.

  16. @BF: what if he’d used Dear Sir/Madam? Or abbreviated it to Dear Sadam?

    The latter sounds pretty suitable for the G.

  17. Colonising Mars will never make money. Mars is a shithole anyway, we need O’Neill cylinders to distribute humanity across the solar system in comfort and style. Instead of squatting in freezing holes on failed planets, let’s build our own planets.

    When you’re the richest man on the planet, what use is another couple of billion? What additional marginal utility would that provide to Elon Musk personally, whereas “The Man who conquered Mars” is an almost Alexandrian epithet.

    People like Musk, Bezos and Gates are past making a buck or two. They are looking for a legacy that will live on beyond their own mortality.

    That being said, would a Mars colony survive the death of Musk? Harder to answer, maybe Bezos might take up the mantle, maybe nobody, maybe the next trillionaire who today remains unknown.

  18. JG – When you’re the richest man on the planet, what use is another couple of billion? What additional marginal utility would that provide to Elon Musk personally, whereas “The Man who conquered Mars” is an almost Alexandrian epithet.

    Yes, but the rest of us need to make money in order to live. How will Martians pay the mortgage? What – if any – options will they have?

    Or will they be essentially slaves or serfs, owned by the Wayland-Yutani corporation and spending every penny in the company store? If you’re going somewhere where even the air you breathe needs to be expensively piped in and you can’t afford to leave, are you a colonist or a prisoner?

  19. Theo. There is no way of correctly spelling C7th Welsh princes. Standardised spelling isn’t really a thing before the C18th. And there is no way of transcribing the C7th Welsh language into the Latin character set. We have enough trouble with English. Cadwallader is simply a spelling some Englishman (an historian?*) came up with more recently. For a start there isn’t a Welsh language for the time. There were at least 3 regional variants & 4 periodic variants. I believe the Welsh may have had their own character set, in the same way that the precursor to English had. And how accurately they transcribed Welsh is anyone’s guess.
    I did at one time actually know a few words in Welsh picked up from a friend. There are sounds that are just impossible to represent in Latin characters. The letters used in modern written Welsh are really just placeholders.
    * I used that particular indefinite article to indicate how hard this is. Depends how you pronounce ‘historian’ when spoken. English doesn’t like consecutive vowels.

  20. Cadwaladr (sometimes with two l’s) is the correct spelling for the 7thC Welsh prince.

    Ahbut, is she writing in English or Welsh?

    I used Cadwallader as a user name in the ’80s, after finding it in a book of baby names.

  21. Oops with the closing of tags! Note to self: Look below for the WYG. No the site doesn’t need an edit function. It’s contributors do!

  22. Incidentally the double-L in written Welsh definitely isn’t the double-L in written English. As it isn’t in Spanish. So I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be Cadwalladar. You’d tie your tongue in a knot trying to say the letter sequence.

  23. Oh & she maybe entirely correct with that final “dr” The “a” stuck in between them could be an entirely English convenience. Try speaking Polish

  24. “Try speaking Polish”

    I have. And got some very dirty looks. As, in Polish, I have a terribly strong Russian accent.

    In Czech it was just easier to speak Russian anyway…

  25. Steve,

    “Yes, but the rest of us need to make money in order to live. How will Martians pay the mortgage? What – if any – options will they have?

    Or will they be essentially slaves or serfs, owned by the Wayland-Yutani corporation and spending every penny in the company store? If you’re going somewhere where even the air you breathe needs to be expensively piped in and you can’t afford to leave, are you a colonist or a prisoner?”

    It doesn’t sound a lot different to London. They nearly all work for the state, spend nearly all their money on rent. Maybe they’ll be less crime on Mars, though.

    Get your ass to Mars.

  26. Or will they be essentially slaves or serfs, owned by the Wayland-Yutani corporation and spending every penny in the company store? If you’re going somewhere where even the air you breathe needs to be expensively piped in and you can’t afford to leave, are you a colonist or a prisoner?”

    Yes, Alien: Romulus illustrates this exact problem. Quite a good movie as well.

  27. @John Galt
    That being said, would a Mars colony survive the death of Musk?

    That is a very important question to consider especially for anyone silly enough to be thinking of becoming a colonist. From a medical perspective it’s quite possible that returning to earths gravity, after say five years on Mars, would kill you. It’s also possible that their might not be the ships, propellant and food to bring everyone back should that be necessary.
    Mars colonization is a black hole that will consume endless capital. Post Musk, with any normal company a share holder revolt would eventually choke off that cash drain. To give colonist a fighting chance I believe Musk would need to set up some form of trust that was legally bound to support Mars colonization and bequeath it voting control all of his SpaceX shares.

  28. A century or so back, Ms. Cadwallad(e)r’s condition was referred to as hysteria. A good seeing-to was recognised as a treatment, and the vibrator was invented to save doctors the onerous chore of administering it.

    That said, I can’t imagine treating Ms. Cadwallad(e)r being a great deal of fun. It’d be a bit like trying to shag Shelob.

  29. “How will Martians pay the mortgage?”

    Well, I suspect that Mars will be settled (if it is) rather the same way that the New World was. You went out and staked a claim. Or you bought a claim from someone who had.
    But you either had enough money to buy equipment here and ship it, or you worked a term of service for passage, i.e. “indenture”.

    “Mortgages” exist in a settled land. Mars isn’t.

    Which means it’s entirely possible that Mars will be settled, at least at first, by:
    a) religious types, who pool together their money to buy stuff, and probably mostly end up dead due to insufficient supplies.
    b) exiled types, e.g. Cavaliers, who have the money to pay for passage. And they’ll probably die a lot too, since they don’t know how to actually work.

    It does also assume that Earth gets sufficiently unpleasant for them that these types actually ship off to Mars, instead of trying to live in Monaco or the Amazon or something.
    Given the number of people now saying they’ll scream and hold their breath and move to Canada from the US, and the number who will actually do it, I’m not sanguine about this.

  30. WB – In London, Noone Can Hear You Scream

    JG – I haven’t seen any of those films since the one where Sigourney Weaver was bald and miserable.

    M – How much is it gonna cost to send humans and cargo to Mars? Probably aren’t enough billionaires to justify a first class deck.

    Also the Europeans who conquered America were taking valuable land with a reasonable ROI, but land on Mars is worthless. Can’t grow corn or raise cattle in Valles Marineris. Assuming bioengineering ever works, you’ll see a return in 10,000 years maybe?

    And you wouldn’t really be living on Mars, you’d be living in an oxygen tent on Mars. That sounds like a nightmare.

    But with a cluster of O’Neill cylinders, we can have entire cities* in space. Free solar energy, 24/7. Spun at a comfortable 0.9g that won’t cause bone deformities in your children. Cheap resources nudged your way by automated spaceships surveying the asteroid belt. Places you can live in, and still walk on grass or fly kites.

    *Gleaming high tech metropolises a la 21st century Asia, not modern Western cities (eww)

    My theory is, there needs to be a better reason for colonising Mars than “it might eventually save mankind from extinction”. Either a pressing social, cultural or religious need that is so powerful it can command enormous resources on Earth, or cold, hard cash that you can spend on triple-breasted Martian hookers.

  31. @Western Bloke – “These people assume that tech entrepreneurs create companies to make lots of money”

    One of the main motivations of the left is greed (the other being envy), so it is impossible for them to imagine someone operating a commercial business for any reason other than greed.

  32. Plenty of CO2 on Mars. So plants could do well if watered. Not sure about our modern cereal crops, adapted to very low CO2 levels, though.
    Might have to engineer some variants of prehistoric ferns or something

  33. But with a cluster of O’Neill cylinders, we can have entire cities* in space.

    Oxygen tents in space instead of on Mars. And unlike on Mars, where there can be many tents for multiple redundancy, these will be single giant tents with multiple single points of total failure.

    Having a population the size of Britain’s living in an area half the size of London is going to be problematic; a reality very much unlike those fanciful arcadian artistic impressions. A hundred and ninety two 15 minute cities sounds like no fun. The population will have to be highly monitored and regulated too, since one of the single points of total failure is suicide sabotage by some nutter or nutters.

    The most off planet we’ll get without some kind of science fiction level technology is Antartic base style arrangements that can be regularly supplied from Earth. There will be no demand for permanent settlement, just as there is no such demand for cities at the poles or underwater on the continental shelves (which would be much easier to establish than anything outside our gravity well).

  34. What Ted S. says.

    Mars’ atmosphere is mostly CO2, mainly from geological processes. O2 and H2O, even N2 are simply too light to stay on Mars due to not enough gravity, solar wind, and lack of magnetic field. Everything Mars once had got blown away by the Sun.
    The atmophere is t.h.i.n.

    Mind.. it’s not so thin you can’t work with it at all… But you’d have to figure a way to harvest it, bottle it, and then ship it to where you need.

    And only an utter fool would stay on the surface of Mars for a long time. Those dust storms are nasty, and radiation is, shall we say, an Issue.
    You’ll have to go Troglodyte like on the Moon to set up any possible permanent residence that has even a remote possibility to succeed.

    Which means we have to get better at digging, and better at maintaining an ecology in a limited enclosed space. And get those backyard nukes sorted, we need those.

    It’s not technically impossible. It simply won’t happen seriously in our lifetime.

  35. The radiation problems of living on the surface of the Moon or Mars would be solved by issuing the girls with purple wigs.

  36. I’m cautiously optimistic about Mars. There would have to be a reason for the intelligent and productive to go there. But, given the mess that governments all over the world are determined to make and keep doubling-down on, it could be attractive, especially to the more intelligent and productive if things get bad enough.

    Looking at previous space programs and extrapolating isn’t necessarily valid. Space programs have in the past been ways of transferring hundreds of billions of dollars to corporations so that they can make hundreds of millions in ‘campaign donations’ to the politico class, and if there are some successes along the way then that’s a bonus. The likes of Musk and Bezos — while quite different in their engineering approaches — are similar in that they care about the end result, and have a track record of making things work. The efficiency of SpaceX and Blue Origin are, whodathunkit, way higher than government programs.

    The test for “are they serious about long-term presence” is if the first load to Mars doesn’t go to the surface, but instead is Starlink-equivalent and GPS-equivalent hardware that’s deployed in Mars orbit. Yes there may be a trial landing of the empty ship afterwards because why not, but the payload would be infrastructure for future missions.

  37. Instead of spending all this dosh on getting to Mars and making it ‘habitable’, I wish Elon would spend it on making the planet we’ve already got a bit more pleasant.

  38. Those dust storms are nasty, and radiation is, shall we say, an Issue. You’ll have to go Troglodyte like on the Moon to set up any possible permanent residence that has even a remote possibility to succeed.

    There’s been quite a lot of work done on this and movie portrayals down reflect reality (The Martian et al).

    Dust storms while problematic aren’t as bad as portrayed or anywhere near Earth dust storms. The particulates are far smaller than Earth dust storms (closer to cigarette smoke/ash) and the thinness of the atmosphere means they are a fraction of the density. The biggest hazard from dust storms is visibility and reduced solar power generation.

    Radiation is problematic, but they’ve also found that close to the walls of Martian craters and canyons (Mars has lots of these), they are much reduced aided by marginally increased atmospheric pressure in the deeper canyons.

    While using Martian soil is an obvious solution to reducing radiation, it doesn’t need to be total, a shielded covering on top being sufficient to bring radiation down to a manageable level while leaving the sides open for light are a feature of much of the proposed Martian habitation design.

  39. Mars’ atmosphere is mostly CO2, mainly from geological processes. O2 and H2O, even N2 are simply too light to stay on Mars due to not enough gravity
    O² is not a natural gas anywhere. It’s too reactive. O² on earth is a transient atmosphere the result of chlorophyll in plants splitting CO² to produce various H+O combinations with O² as a waste product.
    It seems likely there’s a complete atmosphere & hydrosphere on Mars combined with clays containing iron as FeO & methane. Atmospheres may be transient phenomena on rocky planets

  40. Ottokring
    “The radiation problems of living on the surface of the Moon or Mars would be solved by issuing the girls with purple wigs.”
    And pointy bras?

    As for power, it’s windy and sunny up there so, you know, we could send Milliband Minor there to set up the windmills and solar panels.

  41. “How will Martians pay the mortgage?”

    Well, I suspect that Mars will be settled (if it is) rather the same way that the New World was. You went out and staked a claim. Or you bought a claim from someone who had.

    It is an an interesting question. Kim Stanley Robinson has a go at it in the Red/Green/Blue Mars trilogy which goes from second landing through terraforming. But predictably as an an environmentalist/socialist his is a Big Government/because it’s there, motivated project all the way through. Although you do get a failed war of independence & later a Mars/Earth military confrontation. Yanks to tend to reprise US history.
    I think Musk sees it as more of a Disneyland. People would go there to be there, simples. But that could work. That’s really the why of where I’m living. This was the poorest part of Spain. Then Torremolinos happened. Tourism needed a tourist industry to support it. And a tourist industry needs an economic infrastructure to supply it. And now people come to benefit from/be part of that infrastructure until you end up with an entire economy. There’s actually very few people here directly involved with the tourists. It’s not far off a self contained economy.
    Doubt there would ever be a Mars/Earth physical commerce unless the price of DeltaV became trivial.. But you could very well get M/E trade in information
    space. Mars society/economy could very leading edge.

    Another question is why climb up out of a gravity well just to drop down into another? The DeltaV to Earth orbit takes you half way to anywhere. With space, you do have to stop thinking in terms of distance & start thinking in terms of DeltaV & time. Things that seem to be very close together in physical space can be a long way apart in DeltaV/time & vica versa.

  42. Hell of a lot easier to get out of the Martian gravity well than Earth’s gravity well.

    You could also use Phobos and Deimos as orbitting real estate with very marginal Delta V’s use them as storage and transfer stations for everywhere else.

    One of the things I don’t agree on is the use of Starship beyond the first landings, since setting up multiple, large and comfortable Aldrin cyclers between Earth LEO/Moon and Earth LEO/Mars would be a better way of covering the distances on the regular. Then just use Starship as the shuttle that gets you from the surface to the Aldrin cycler and at the other end from the Aldrin cycler to the surface.

    Since the Aldrin cyclers take a lot of effort to start, but little effort to keep in motion, it makes more sense than having hundreds or even thousands of Starships doing the long ass journey to Mars (or even the Moon).

    Better to invest in something that is massive, comfortable, fits thousands and can reliably run for decades instead of flying people for months in a tin can.

    The nearest comparison was probably the ships that ploughed the route between UK and Australia during the £10 Pom era. Make it more like a cruise to a new life / home than with plenty of good food and entertainment on the way.

    About the only concern is that you’d have more traffic going to Mars than coming back from Mars (at least initially), whereas lunar traffic would be more balanced simply because of the reduced transit time when compared to Mars.

  43. Good point, Mr Galt. One wonders about similar for the Earth/Luna trade. The Apollo series did it quickly because the spacecraft couldn’t support a crew for much longer. But it meant they had a helluva clip on for aerobraking on the return & used a lot of propellant. There’s much more economical transfer orbits take longer used for unmanned probes. means you don’t have to lift the same masses of propellant to Earth orbit because you don’t need the DeltaV. And much less at each end for relatively small craft make the rendezvous. Consumables to support crew for the duration would be far less mass than propellant for the short duration transfer. The cycler only needs its DeltaV the once.
    What I meant about that distance/time/DeltaV thing. The Earth/Luna trip can be different things depending how you do it. One tends to think of it as Earth/Luna. But it isn’t. It’s low Earth orbit to a higher Earth orbit the Moon’s in. So a velocity change & you want to do the least of that.

  44. The lowest cost of delta-v exists at apogee and perigee, depending whether you want to raise or lower your orbit.

    What the lunar probes tend to do is once per orbit at perigee (lowest point in the orbit closest to Earth) is undertake a short burn to raise the orbit at the other end, so that gradually, orbit-by-orbit your apogee ends up being closer to the Moon and eventually just beyond it.

    It used to have to be done in a single engine burn because engine restarts were either limited to once-only or few-times-only. We don’t tend to do that nowadays and engines are designed for multiple restarts in space.

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