“The Guardian is offering counselling and therapy to staff as it vowed to support its workforce after Donald Trump’s “upsetting” US election victory this week. In the US, some colleges have given students time off, an extension on deadlines, art therapy classes and access to a therapy duck in response to Trump’s win. Students at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy were reportedly told this week that they could play with Lego, colouring books, and have milk and cookies in “self-care suites” following the result”
##########
Kentucky called for TRUMP (8 EC)
Vermont called for HARRIS (3 EC)
Indiana called for TRUMP (11 EC)
West Virginia called for TRUMP (4 EC)
South Carolina called for TRUMP (9 EC)
Florida called for TRUMP (30 EC)
New Jersey called for HARRIS (14 EC)
Massachusetts called for HARRIS (11 EC)
Rhode Island called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Connecticut called for HARRIS (7 EC)
Maryland called for HARRIS (10 EC)
Illinois called for HARRIS (19 EC)
Alabama called for TRUMP (9 EC)
Mississippi called for TRUMP (6 EC)
Tennessee called for TRUMP (11 EC)
Missouri called for TRUMP (10 EC)
Oklahoma called for TRUMP (7 EC)
Arkansas called for TRUMP (7 EC)
New York called for HARRIS (28 EC)
Colorado called for HARRIS (9 EC)
Texas called for TRUMP (40 EC)
Kansas called for TRUMP (6 EC)
North Dakota called for TRUMP (3 EC)
South Dakota called for TRUMP (3 EC)
Wyoming called for TRUMP (3 EC)
Nebraska (statewide) called for TRUMP (2 EC)
Louisiana called for TRUMP (8 EC)
District of Columbia called for HARRIS (3 EC)
Ohio called for TRUMP (17 EC)
Delaware called for HARRIS (3 EC)
New Hampshire called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Utah called for TRUMP (6 EC)
Montana called for TRUMP (4 EC)
Iowa called for TRUMP (6 EC)
California called for HARRIS (54 EC)
Oregon called for HARRIS (8 EC)
Washington called for HARRIS (12 EC)
Maine split votes HARRIS (3 EC) TRUMP (1 EC)
Idaho called for TRUMP (4 EC)
North Carolina called for TRUMP (16 EC)
New Mexico called for HARRIS (5 EC)
Georgia called for TRUMP (16 EC)
Hawaii called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Pennsylvania called for TRUMP (19 EC)
Minnesota called for HARRIS (10 EC)
Wisconsin called for TRUMP (10 EC)
That’s it! There is now no path to victory for Kamala Harris. Donald J Trump will be the 47th President of the United States after winning the state of Wisconsin.
######## 0650 GMT
Trump is now on 267. Assuming Alaska comes in for Trump he’s on 270. However Alaska hasn’t counted yet. The state that will put him over the top is most likely to be either Wisconsin or Nevada on the current trend.
### 0624 GMT
Arizona was home to two former Republican presidential candidates, Barry Goldwater and John McCain. It used to be a fairly reliable Republican state until 2020 when Biden won it by 0.3%.
This is another must win for Trump even though Republicans are fighting a demographic rear guard action here. In many ways the 48th state in the US is steadily moving from being a wild frontier state to an extension of Southern California.
########0227 GMT
Minnesota is the home state of Harris’ running mate Tim Walz. It was also home to Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, both Democratic Vice Presidents and unsuccessful presidential candidates. Minnesota was the one state that voted for Mondale during Ronald Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984. When asked a few weeks later what he would like for Christmas, President Reagan replied “Minnesota would’ve been nice.”
Minnesota is a potential wild card for Republicans. If this state is even close Harris and Walz should be worried.
######## 0158 GMT
In half an hour many states in the Mid-West will close their polls. Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska (statewide), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming jointly hold the record as the longest continuously Republican states along with Alaska. The last time they voted for a Democrat was for Lyndon B Johnson in 1964. If any of these states are even close Trump should be worried.
######## 0134 GMT
West Virginia used to be a solid Democrat state but it was the second strongest state for Trump, Virginia is the other way around. It is curious that these states have crossed over each other, only on rare occasions voting for the same party.
######## 0126 GMT
Possibly the most anticipated of all the battleground states, Pennsylvania will close its polls in ten minutes.
Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2%. He is originally from Scranton.
Trump won the state in 2016, being the first Republican to do so since the 1980s.
This state is a must win for both candidates. It is difficult for both campaigns to win without those 19 EC votes.
######## 0050 GMT
Florida will close its polls in a few minutes. It was won by Trump in 2020 by 3.4%. This is a bigger margin than in 2020 even though the national swing was against him.
Ron DeSantis was re-elected as Governor by 20% in 2022.
No Republican has won the presidency without Florida since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.
The 2000 debacle in Florida is still controversial, with many Democrats still believing Al Gore was robbed.
If Harris has a chance here she needs to be miles ahead in the early returns as the Pan Handle is very Republican and counts later.
The Latino vote is vital to the Democrats in the South West however most Latinos in Florida are Cuban rather than Mexican and exhibit different voting behaviour.
####### 0046 GMT
Polls will close in a few minutes in North Carolina.North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 except in 2008 when they voted for Barack Obama.
Trump won here by 1.4% in 2020.
North Carolina is the home state of Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara who has been campaigning heavily here. It has been rumoured for some time that she will run for office herself in due course.
## 0024 GMT
Ohio had a very long streak as the bellwether state in Presidential elections until 2020 when it voted for Trump. The previous occasion on which Ohio voted for the losing candidate was in 1960 when they voted for Richard Nixon.
Ohio is the home state of Donald Trump’s running mate Senator JD Vance.
No Republican president has ever been elected without carrying Ohio. Trump won here by 8% in 2020.
If Trump is heading back to the Whitehouse he should win here by at least 9% to overperform from his narrow loss in 2020.
The Democrats may be close here even though they will likely lose. This is because urban areas count more quickly. Like many other places in the US, the UK and other countries there’s a very stark urban/rural divide.
####### 0022 GMT
In about ten minutes the polls will close in Virginia. The Commonwealth was a reliable state for the GOP from 1968 until 2008 when Obama won here. The state has remained in the Democratic column ever since. Joe Biden won it by 10% in 2020 however the following year they elected a Republican governor Glenn Youngkin.
Donald Trump held a rally in Salem, VA on Saturday. Is he just shoring up North Carolina or does he know something we don’t?
It is unlikely that Harris will lose here but if she does she’s probably toast.
#######23:48GMT
13 Tabulation machines in Wilwaukee are not collecting ballots correctly, some 38,000 votes have been cancelled and have to be recast.
#######23:40GMT
In 45 minutes the polls will close in Georgia. Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. He carried the state by less than a quarter of a percent.
Georgia is a supreme example of the lingering racial divide in the politics of the Deep South. The state has a large population of African Americans as well as many White conservatives. John F Kennedy won this state in 1960 overwhelmingly by carrying both of these demographic groups. Since then no president has been elected with the support of both groups. Whether this is possible anymore remains to be seen.
If Trump loses here again he will almost certainly lose the election.
######## 2315 GMT
48 or the 50 states have a simple FPTP “winner takes all” system for electoral college votes. However Maine and Nebraska have split electoral votes. This means that whoever wins the state overall will take two votes but then one vote each for the individual congressional districts. There are two districts in Maine and three in Nebraska.######## 2252 GMT
@blokeingermany That is an excellent question. It will be difficult to determine based on the first state calls which will likely by states such as Vermont for Harris and Kentucky for Trump. However the first clues will be when we compare individual county results in those states. Trump needs to over-perform his 2020 showing by roughly 2% to be home and dry. I hope this answers your question. Let us know in the comments.########## 2240 GMT
The first states will close their polls at 7pm Eastern Standard Time which is midnight in the UK. These states include the key battleground state of Georgia. Half an hour later the polls will close in Ohio and North Carolina. If you’re a British observer maybe get some sleep now because it might be a long night.######## 1535 GMT
The United States elect their presidents not by direct popular vote but by the Electoral College. The largest state by population is California with 54 votes. Wyoming is the least populous state and has three. Votes are allocated by the total number of congressional seats a state has. California has 52 representatives and Wyoming only one, however both states have two Senators. There is a total of 538 EC votes so the winning number is 270.########## 0856 GMT
While this election is being fought in all fifty US states, in reality it is six battleground states who will decide who is the next president. Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump needs to flip at least three of these to win however if Kamala Harris can hold five of them she will be home and dry.
########## 0741 GMT
I’m pinching myself slightly this morning, it’s been four years and today is the day. Now we just have 17 hours until the first polls close.
########## 0702 GMT
We are ready, gin is chilled, we have three screens going, markets, this blog and fox.
We’ve 10 pages of notes, maga hats and a flag.
Plus the Russians are next door 🤷🤫
########## 04-11-2024
Howdy! Richard here (webmaster of this parish). My friend Henry—who I’ve known for far too long—and I will be live blogging the US election tomorrow from 10 p.m. We’ll be covering the battlegrounds, offering live analysis, and tracking state-by-state swing numbers.
We’re out in Cyprus, so it’ll be a late one. Expect typos, a bit of drunken rambling, and our personal takes (which you may or may not agree with).
And a big thank you to Timmy for letting us witter on!
My dear Richard,
I wish you all joy of your experiment. But I expect to be safely tucked up in bed. If I were a Yank I’d vote for the Trumpster rather than the strumpet. But I’m not so I can’t.
Pity they can’t bring back Ronald Reagan or Ike.
Toodle pip.
My US election prediction: we won’t know the result for several days yet. And we may never know the true result.
I’d like to bet on an electoral college tie 269:269. Are there any bookmakers offering odds?
Stats wise 15 Vice Presidents have become President i think (admittedly some after deaths or scandals) and only 1 former President has become President again (Cleveland in the 1890s) so the trends overwhelmingly favour Comma Laugh.
I recall an ASI alumnus writing an essay about why it makes sense to bet against the outcome you want. There will be several hours tomorrow to find it.
I’m guessing either a narrow Harris win or a Trump landslide. Whoever wins, I predict a riot.
Morning, where in Cyprus are you?
Where you here for the storm?
Fingers crossed for a Trump win but I fear the worst…
Hi, YES it was absolutely amazing! Im in Tala – live out here too. drop me an email at ri*****@*******co.uk
. . . only 1 former President has become President again . . .
I don’t think you can observe a trend from that. Only a few tried and the ones that failed attempted via a third party ticket or just gave up when they didn’t get nominated. The one that succeeded (Cleveland) was very similar to Trump’s situation, coming back as the main opposition candidate against the guy he lost to (who by then wasn’t popular with his own party).
Of the VPs who made it into the presidential election as VPs (as opposed to having already become President due to vacancy), six won and seven lost. The political conventions during the time of the first two were radically different, and Nixon didn’t directly succeed his president.
No guidance here, methinks.
– I’m guessing either a narrow Harris win or a Trump landslide.
Likewise.
https://www.timworstall.com/2024/11/seems-a-bit-odd-2/#comment-1350736
I’m gonna go for both: a Trump landslide, but then they find enough “postal votes” down the back of a sofa somewhere to turn it into a narrow Harris win.
Can I guess there’ll be so much obvious fraud, there’ll be lawyers swarming all over for both sides, civil war will break out and the whole thing will eventually be redone under military supervision with voter id, one day voting in person, with paper ballots counted and reported on site on the same day. Today is justhe beginning
The fix is already in
Kamala by a nose
Democracy wins….
@ John Turning:
“I’d like to bet on an electoral college tie 269:269. Are there any bookmakers offering odds?”
Currently 23/1 on the Betfair exchange:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.234813991
This is the main Presidential Election market:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927
It’s an amusing read now, as you can see all the names who were talked up as candidates at one time or another, from JD Vance down to George Clooney.
“Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump needs to flip at least three of these to win”
I think it depends which three, because of the different numbers of electoral college votes.
The FT has a nice little fantasy election tool here (free, but needs email registration):
https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/polls/
If they’ve got it right, and everywhere except your six go the way they’re expected to, then I think:
– he could do it with just two of the six, if they’re Pennsylvania and North Carolina;
– he could get three of them and still lose, if one’s Nevada and he doesn’t get Pennsylvania.
Calculators at the ready!
“Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump needs to flip at least three of these to win”
That’s assuming he wins Georgia. Some polls are showing that as more marginal than Arizona.
I’d have thought CapX would have better standards than allowing TDS articles – https://capx.co/american-democracy-is-hanging-in-the-balance/
The Leftist really like to project their own prejudices onto others don’t they!
Amusement: popular podcaster Joe Rogan endorses Donald Trump.
The Guardian article about this doesn’t dwell on any of the reasons why he prefers Trump in this race, instead it’s a charge sheet listing his offences against Small Souled Urban Bugmen (he interviewed people they don’t like and asked questions about the Safe and Effective jabs):
In January 2022, a group of 270 US doctors, scientists, professors, and other healthcare professionals wrote an open letter to Spotify, raising concerns about Rogan’s podcast and what they called its “concerning history of broadcasting misinformation, particularly regarding the Covid-19 pandemic”.
“Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, Joe Rogan has repeatedly spread misleading and false claims on his podcast, provoking distrust in science and medicine. He has discouraged vaccination in young people and children, incorrectly claimed that mRNA vaccines are “gene therapy,” promoted off-label use of ivermectin to treat Covid-19,” the letter said.
Rogan had been previously called out by the White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci for telling his audience that young, healthy Americans did not need to be vaccinated against Covid.
Imagine still believing in Vaxxianity in 2024. Embarrassing.
In early 2022, musician Neil Young demanded that the streaming platform remove his music, arguing that “Spotify is spreading fake information about vaccines,”
There were quite a lot of elderly mask and jabs nuts who wanted to force the entire world to get novel experimental vaccines to assuage their fear of death. Have any of them apologised yet?
The average age of homebuyers in the U.S. has risen by six years since July 2023 — another sign that younger Americans are being priced out of the market due to escalating ownership costs.
The average age of homebuyers is now 56
Bloody hell.
In early 2022, musician Neil Young demanded that the streaming platform remove his music, arguing that “Spotify is spreading fake information about vaccines,”
Neil Young? The chap that wrote “The Needle And The Damage Done”?
That Neil Young?
“The average age of homebuyers is now 56”
First time homebuyers?
This appears to a source for the comment about the average age of home buyers being 56 .
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/money-report/the-average-age-of-u-s-homebuyers-jumps-to-56-homes-are-wildly-unaffordable-for-young-people-real-estate-expert-says/3687895/#:~:text=The%20average%20age%20of%20homebuyers%20is%20now%2056%2C%20up%20from,40s%20in%20the%20early%202010s.
It goes on to say: “The median age of first-time buyers also rose from 35 to 38, while the share of first-timers dropped from 32% to 24% of all buyers for the year ending July 2024. That marks the lowest percentage since NAR started tracking the metric in 1981.”
I confidently predict a record number of votes counted.
Even more than last time.
Maybe not actually cast, but certainly counted.
I hope Harris wins.
Trump is likely to withdraw support for NATO. Which could lead to Putin conquering Europe.
Trump stacking the Supreme Court, has also made abortion illegal in some states, and made it that child abuse victims and rapists can be forced to give birth to their rapist’s child.
Henry Crun – the list of formerly counterculture or “radical” celebrities now supporting the regime nomenklatura BlackRock wants you to vote for is long.
Rage Against The Machine are now Rage Against The White Working Class.
I hope Harris wins.
Trump is likely to withdraw support for NATO. Which could lead to Putin conquering Europe.
Trump stacking the Supreme Court, has also made abortion illegal in some states, and made it that child abuse victims and rapists victims can be forced to give birth to their rapist’s child.
Steve – So how does cutting public services help the white working class. How does cutting taxes for the Rich help the white working class.
You are as thick as pig **** for thinking a billionaire far right winger cares about the white working class.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/trump-budget-deeply-cuts-health-housing-other-assistance-for-low-and-moderate-income
Explain why these facts help white working class people.
The only reason any white working class person would vote Trump, is because that person is as thick as pig s***.
Real Man – how angry are you going to be if Trump wins?
Will you bite your pillow?
‘Real Man’
Tywin Lannister: “Any man who must say, “I am the king” is no true king.”
Real Man
“So how does cutting public services help the white working class”
Because with lower taxes and less government interference, the economy improves and they have jobs. And that’s important. For a lot of people, providing for yourself and your family is more important than getting government handouts.
It’s sort of in the name ‘working class’.
I don’t bite pillows. I am not gay.
So now you accuse people of being gay.
Pillow biter is a term used by homophobes.
You are a warped, twisted, bully.
And homophobic people are normally repressed homsexuals. FACT.
And homophobic people are normally repressed homsexuals. FACT.
Aranchnophobe, eh? I bet you secretly want to fuck spiders.
Andrew C ; Using that logic any man who calls himself by his own name is not really called that. And remember how many Trump has described himself as intelligent.
Hoist by your own petard.
RichardT working class people need public services and handouts and it is cloud cuckoo land nonsense to claim that taking away their handouts will help the poorest people. Maybe your Butler and maids could teach you that?
But fear of spiders is not sexual. Why do you fear gays enough to insult gays?
I think we all know why?
Homophobes are normally repressed gay people..
But fear of spiders is not sexual
That’s what all the arachnophobes say.
Why do you want to have sex with tarantulas? Sicko.
Progressive policies don’t help the working class though they do provide comfy government paid sinecures for progressive policy makers.
Generally, red states, largely governed by Republicans, are economically outperforming blue states. California, a Democratic governed state, has the highest poverty rate in the nation when adjusted for living costs per the US Census Dept. As for those mentions about young people not being able to buy houses and the average age of buyers is creeping up, well older folks are largely white, and their kids will likely one day inherit well, whereas many of their minority peers often will not.
There’s a reason the Democratic party has lost of a lot of its white working class support and why it may be losing some minority support. Their policies harm the people they purport to help.
I’ve seen reports that there are (already) 80 million postal votes* – over 30% of the potential electorate. Jesus wepped – why not just abolish the secret ballot altogether? I thought things were bad in UK elections, but this is another league.
* looking into it further, it seems The Grauniad is muddling advance ballots (which some states allow) with genuine postal votes, so I’m not sure of the real number, but it must be substantial
“So now you accuse people of being gay.”
Are you not proud to be gay? Its called Pride Month after all. Be out and proud!
Anyone would think you are ashamed that someone might think you like a bit of bum fun (as Myfanwy might have said to Dafydd)
Steve You are obviously projecting your sick sexual desires on to other people. Nobody was talking about fancying spiders and then you start bringing it up. So you are a homophobe and have an obsession with spiders and sex. You have a warped obsession with spiders and sex. That is not my fault.
Jim : You are another homophobe. As I said most homophobes are repressed homosexuals. Maybe you and Steve need to meet up some time. You are very protective of him. You have lots in common? Creepy, depraved and homophobic. A couple of right s******s. You two and the spider should have fun together.
“Using that logic any man who calls himself by his own name is not really called that.”
I believe some rappers used that style in the nineties/noughties or so.
They weren’t men indeed. They were poncy pratts with overinflated ego’s.
So yeah…… the logic is sound..
@ “Real” Man
…phobias are fears of ….
Homophobia is fear of homosexuals usually because many (but far from all) homosexuals are sexula predators – it is the predatory nature of those homosexuals – not your ridiculously far-fetched suggestion that homophobes are repressed homosexuals (if they were why would they fear other homosexuals?) that causes the fear.
I have no dog in this fight being neither homosexual nor homophobic but having to study Euclidean geometry for ‘A’ level hammered some elementary logic into my brain.
‘Aranchnophobe, eh? I bet you secretly want to fuck spiders.’
Thank you Steve.
I wonder whether he’d like a funnel-web?? Plenty of them in Oz.
“I predict a riot”
I predict if Harris wins protests by Trump supporters will be called a riot while if Trump wins actual riots by Harris supporters will be called peaceful protests
@Henry Crun
Rogan leans towards drug legislation and often talks about benefits of psychedelic therapy so The Needle and The Damage done would be a interesting discussion if they ever did a podcast together
BB: I believe the true enthusiasts prefer redbacks for the exquisite intensity of the final act…
Real Man – that’s quite enough of your gay spider erotica, thank you.
Bboy – they say it takes all sorts, but they’re wrong.
TD – There’s a reason the Democratic party has lost of a lot of its white working class support and why it may be losing some minority support. Their policies harm the people they purport to help.
Well, yarp. Having a two party system where both parties are out to rob you blind, fill your town with Haitians, and leave you dead in a Net Zero ditch is suboptimal. In this election, the Insane Clown Posse is offering a future of insanity and death, as the town bike erupts pharmaceutical grade cackles and her trusted imperial eunuch Tim Walz gaily prances across the stage to do his best impression of a 1980’s TV dad.
Are Americans dumb or crooked enough to put a ho in the White House? Did Peanut the squirrel die in vain? Is there a brand of Febreeze strong enough to get the smell of fish out of the Oval Office soft furnishings? Steve no have answers, only time will tell.
Deeply ignorant question for our hosts. We all know with a UK election we can listen out for Sunderland, or whoever is competing to be first to declare, and already know whether we are looking at a clear victory for one side (not the individual constituencies but the overall numbers) or a long night. That Sunderland is always labour doesn’t matter, the shift in the vote tells us enough.
Is there anywhere in the US that is equally early and useful? Obviously not Dixon’s Bucket or wherever. But anywhere else? What is our earliest indication?
Bit boring so far.
Harris 0-0 Trump.
Might surf the net for some hot spider on spider action.
Andrew, yes, your best bet for cambeings is spiders tonight. As a longstanding member of the squirrel-suited-identifying community, I can confirm we are still in an official period of mourning and live entertainment options are thus very limited.
Link to CNN video clip for above comment
https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1853742847997997495
@BiG: I like Dixon’s Bucket NEW HAMPSHIRE – voted 5-1 REP for one House and 2-4 DEM for the other House.
It’s almost as if America (PBUH) doesn’t want any politician to win both Houses and likes politicians to not be able to do things to them.
Can’t blame them for that. The best state is small enough to drown in your bath tub. USA is a long way from that, so keeping the mad pols from having both House and Senate at the same time is sensible.
There better not be any squirrelphiliaphobes on this blog!
Useful.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/
Must admit I’m wondering how my cousins in Minnesota have voted.
Kentucky called for Trump (8 EC)
Vermont called for Harris (3 EC)
Indiana called for Trump (11 EC)
West Virginia called for Trump (4 EC)
Hes going to do it.
Early showings look good.
Beer three cracked.
Trump now down to 1.5 on Betfair
Lowest ever matched odds on him were 1.41 so still less likely now than when his chances were bestest
No surprises for either side thus far though.
Watch North Carolina; exit polls are all over the place. If he doesn’t get that, he might need Nevada, which is 50:50 in most predictions.
But the biggie will be Pennsylvania. 19 electoral college votes, very close, polls were mostly slightly his way. If he doesn’t get that, he needs to win somewhere he’s not expected to, like Wisconsin or Michigan.
Plenty of cheat indicators coming in.
What does “called for” mean – is it just a bit of reckon it will based on a bit history, some polls and a big TV station, ‘cos some states are labelled “called for” after 1% of the votes or fewer
Betfair Now:
Trump 1.4 – lowest ever
Harris 3.5 – (highest ever matched was 150 so a long way to drift yet)
North Carolina seems to be turning to Trump
Gosh, Harris is only 0.2% ahead in Virginia, with 40% of the vote counted.
OK, it depends on which areas count first as to whether that’s relevant. But if Trump did win there, that’s a game changer; he could then win without Pennsylvania.
PJF said:
“Plenty of cheat indicators coming in.”
Interesting; what are you seeing?
My counter shows Trump ahead in VA by a cvnthair (0.2%)
@ RichardT
Mostly extended voting hours called for by Dems. It’s one of the tricks.
I think our local businessman is going to do it for a second time. Unbelievable.
The only question is whether Trump will also take the popular vote.
He’s slightly ahead on the popular vote, but it’s like +0.4% probability.
Very close and narrow victory if he does win the popular vote.
New York Times currently estimating Electoral Collage of 295:243 in favour of Trump.
It’s still looking nice but I don’t know how many of these favourable looking states (inc PA) are going to change when postal ballots are included. We’ve been here before, happy in the first half of the night.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Trump will win. Whiskey running low…
PJF said:
“We’ve been here before, happy in the first half of the night.”
Aye, it’s all feeling a bit too familiar for any certainty. There seem to still be a lot of big city votes left to count, and who knows what they’ll find down the back of the watercooler.
Looks like the Republicans will take control of the Senate. This is important because they will control the appointment of federal judges and high level executive appointments, no matter who wins the presidency.
CNN is saying they’ll tabulate 100K absentee ballots in PA at midnight
All of the MSM talking heads look like they have eaten a turd. Both the White House and the Harris campaign have gone lights out. The Harris campaign has told their supporters to go home and come back tomorrow. Looks a lot like the Hillary campaign in 2016. Barring a midnight miracle like 2020, it looks like Trump is going to win it.
The Harris campaign has just hung up their party (as Hillary did in 2016) without an announcement.
Feeling like 2016 again.
The Harris spokeshole has come out and told all of her supporters to go home. They also told the media to leave. She didn’t even have the courage to come out and address her supporters. Very Hillary like
Zeit Online reporting comfortably ahead in swing states:
“According to the current count, Trump is also ahead of Kamala Harris in other swing states: In Wisconsin, around 83 percent of the votes have been counted, in Pennsylvania 88. Trump is several percent ahead in each case.”
Fox News just called Pennsylvania for Trump. It’s over, Trump has won. He is getting to talk to his supporters. Wisconsin and Michigan are also trending Trump, so he should have a comfortable margin.
The first major cloggie news outlets are calling it for Trump.
Mainly based on the principle that Harris did not get enough margin in the generally more “progressive” urban areas, versus the far more “conservative” rural areas.
General undercurrent in the ..Opinions.. of the Journo’s seems to be the Dems turned too “progressive” too fast, which caused a “conservative” backlash.
The more
socialistProgressive outlets are of the opinion the Long March should be resumed with greater vigour, as one does in tose circles of course…What’s with all the spider sex stuff? Can’t we go back to good old family friendly squirrel furry play like before?
Trump is likely to withdraw support for NATO. Which could lead to Putin conquering Europe.
We can only hope.
@Grikath
After P’Nut squirrels are too Trumpian.
Oops, that should have been @Cherny Drakon. Up way too late here.
It looks to be in the bag, too big to cheat (maybe 290+ when done). Likewise the Senate. Even the House is in play.
Yay.
Ooh, and Kamala gets to certify the election results. Joe will like that.
BBC’s just called Pennsylvania for Trump.
I bet that was a hard pill to swallow.
LOL
I know about the ‘Red Wave’, I believe if cheating can do it, they will, but….please can I celebrate now?
@PPJF; the Senate results aren’t getting much publicity, are they?
They think it’s all over…
IT IS NOW!
Wisconsin has been called for Trump. It’s over beyond the margin of cheating. I’m going to bed now.
Break out the popcorn, are going to be some epic meltdowns today
The lefty tears shall flow like a river to the sea.
– I’m going to bed now.
I’m just going to stay up and zombie through the day.
Victory speech now!
Wow, just wow
I just didn’t think it was possible with the massed ranks of lefties controlling the vote and media
New ron rule of US politics: leftie harridans don’t become President ?
Now all he has to do is stay alive until inauguration…
“Now all he has to do is stay alive until inauguration…”
The lawfare will be dialled up to 11…. You just know the idorts in the Dems will be stupid enough…
Now we need a Project MEGA
Make England Great Again
The lawfare will be dialled up to 11…. You just know the idorts in the Dems will be stupid enough…
Republicans have taken the Senate and look close to taking Congress, so at least he won’t get bogged down in eternal impeachments or fighting to get his senior appointments approved.
Unless some really weird things happen, it looks like Reps are actually going to do a hattrick…
When was the last time President, House, and Senate aligned?
– Republicans have taken the Senate and look close to taking Congress . . .
Such lovely oversight committees they’ll command. All those special secret things to discover.
Trump should pardon the non violent Jan 6th protestors as soon as he takes office.
“Unless some really weird things happen, it looks like Reps are actually going to do a hattrick…
When was the last time President, House, and Senate aligned?”
2016 actually
PJF
Surely the first thing he should do is pardon himself!!
@Andy: ’Break out the popcorn, are going to be some epic meltdowns today’
None likely to be more epic than Matlis and Guru-Murthy on Ch4!
Don’t suppose the infestation blighting No 10 is too happy this morning.
Nice news to wake up to…
https://x.com/addicted2newz/status/1854046217279262790?t=8Nb496AkQ8ZupO3emYiZcA&s=07
Excellent!
When do the new Senate and House commence? Is it the same as the Presidency in January.
If so there might still be some petty malarkey and shenanigans in a lame duck senate and maybe even courtesy of some dripping wet congressional RINOs .
On the plus side not long to wait until we hopefully see Secretary of State for Defence Tulsi Gabbard (very happy face).
https://babylonbee.com/news/tulsi-gabbard-finally-realizes-shes-far-too-attractive-to-be-a-democrat
One does wonder how Trump will handle Ukraine, and Taiwan.
I suspect he’ll propose that Putin can hold the provinces he’s won, and the rest of Ukraine’ll be independent.
As for Taiwan, damnifino.
“ I suspect he’ll propose that Putin can hold the provinces he’s won, and the rest of Ukraine’ll be independent.”
Kursk throws a spanner in those works. If Putin wants Kursk back he’ll be expected to give up on one of the areas he’s occupied, for now.
Real Man – Your spiders are taking a terrible beating!
Ukraine has no choice but the Arnold J. Rimmer option. Their only flexibility is how many more Ukrainians they sacrifice before doing this.
“We surrender, totally, unconditionally, and immediately”.
Broadcast on all known frequencies in all known languages.
That Chinese chappie had something to sday about how to avoid being annihilated by an overwhelminingly superior foe.
An object lesson in what happens to US pawns. Taiwan should take note.
It didn’t have to be this way, but they permitted the comedian to dance as instructed. They can still save what’s left of their nation, and start to learn to live with the neighbours. A western rump of “Ukraine” may be allowed to continue, in a Finlandised manner. But for sure, it matters not one whit what anyone in the US or EU thinks about it.
Next up: when will Germany realise they are being sacrificed too?
TtC
If Taiwan should take note, maybe South Korea should as well. After all the Chinese could just drive straight in. After they’ve repaired the roads Kim’s blown up of course.
But if China could take Taiwan, it could also have a good go at taking Japan. Then of course comes the push to the south towards Oz.
@Boganboy
Why would the Chinese need to invade Oz when they can just buy it?
IIRC, huge swathes of agricultural land have been bought up by Chinese businesses, as have a lot of your politicians. I read a book recently on just how infiltrated your government/education/law has become.
On the upside, perhaps they’ll bring some power stations 🙂
If this is to be believed China is more concerned about NK than about Sk
https://mickhartley.typepad.com/blog/2024/11/a-quasi-world-war.html
BiND – The disquiet felt by China over the sending of North Korean troops to Ukraine
I would put money on there being zero North Korean troops in or anywhere near Ukraine. It’s a story that makes no sense unless we live in the Team America World Police universe, but it does make a lot of sense for propaganda purposes.
Any truth in the rumours of mass suicides in the BBC newsroom?
You’ve got a point TtC.
Hopefully they’ll be nukes instead of windmills!!
Alas BiS I’ve heard nothing about the mass suicides in the BBC newsroom.
And I must concede Steve, that I agree with your scepticism about the North Korean troops being sent to Ukraine. It really doesn’t make much sense for the Russians and Norks to put themselves to the bother.
@Steve
It’s difficult to see how effective they’d be. The modern battle space is an information war as much as anything else. To disseminate information of value you need rapid & reliable communications because information goes stale very fast. The Russians haven’t shown much capability in this on their own, working in their own language. Add a big language barrier?
N. Korean “special forces” might be very capable troops. But how are you coordinate their actions in real time with other forces at squad level? So they’d end up as just mass attack cannon fodder. Unlikely they could be used effectively in a defensive role, where you need to be responding quickly to your opponent’s moves.
Bboy, BiS – Yarp, there’s big practical downsides with the idea of Russians fighting alongside Norks, foreigners who don’t know any Russian or Ukrainian and who use different doctrines and equipment, and whose country isn’t a party to the war and which hasn’t fought a war since the 1950’s. People who might also be very tempted to escape as soon as they got the chance to leave the Worker’s Paradise, which would embarrass Kim.
More trouble than it could possibly be worth, when the Russians have plenty of glide bombs and arty to lob at the Kursk salient, which the Ukrainians have failed to break out from since the invasion got bogged down a couple of days into the offensive.
If there were 12,000 North Koreans waiting in Kursk, NATO ISR would already be crawling all over them and the radio chatter would be undeniable proof. There’s no proof, just talk. Ukraine’s government is in a desperate situation and will say anything at this point. But I see President Zelensky has congratulated President Trump. Trump will be generous to Ukraine, but he’s inheriting a weak hand and – after £200 billion plus of military aid – there’s not much more the US can do wrt the conflict if they don’t want to start WW3.
Maybe Trump can pull off the deal of the century, but it’s hard to see Ukraine getting anywhere close to the generous peace terms Russia was offering in spring 2022, before Boris flew to Kiev to tell them we would abandon Ukraine unless they continued the war.
As for the Ukraine war under Trump. Trump’s a poker player rather than a chess player whereas the Biden administration would struggle with Happy Families. He’s actually similar to Putin. It’s notable that Putin didn’t make any serious excursions in Ukraine in the period 16-20. Was that because he couldn’t predict what US reactions could be? Trump’s quite capable of saying one thing for public consumption while actually doing something entirely different. He doesn’t leave a chessboard where you can analyse future moves. Putin’s just looking at the reverse side of a hand of cards.
BiS: « Any truth in the rumours of mass suicides in the BBC newsroom? »
Channel 4 risks self-immolation. Frabjous day!
Channel 4 risks self-immolation.
One gathers Boris took the piss out of them most royally.
So Mel Brooks was right.
https://youtu.be/1zY1orxW8Aw?si=kH20aE0VGmgm6PE6