US Election: Live Blog.

My dear Richard,

I wish you all joy of your experiment. But I expect to be safely tucked up in bed. If I were a Yank I’d vote for the Trumpster rather than the strumpet. But I’m not so I can’t.

Pity they can’t bring back Ronald Reagan or Ike.

Toodle pip.

I’d like to bet on an electoral college tie 269:269. Are there any bookmakers offering odds?

Stats wise 15 Vice Presidents have become President i think (admittedly some after deaths or scandals) and only 1 former President has become President again (Cleveland in the 1890s) so the trends overwhelmingly favour Comma Laugh.

I recall an ASI alumnus writing an essay about why it makes sense to bet against the outcome you want. There will be several hours tomorrow to find it.

Morning, where in Cyprus are you?

Where you here for the storm?

Fingers crossed for a Trump win but I fear the worst…

. . . only 1 former President has become President again . . .

I don’t think you can observe a trend from that. Only a few tried and the ones that failed attempted via a third party ticket or just gave up when they didn’t get nominated. The one that succeeded (Cleveland) was very similar to Trump’s situation, coming back as the main opposition candidate against the guy he lost to (who by then wasn’t popular with his own party).

Of the VPs who made it into the presidential election as VPs (as opposed to having already become President due to vacancy), six won and seven lost. The political conventions during the time of the first two were radically different, and Nixon didn’t directly succeed his president.

No guidance here, methinks.

I’m gonna go for both: a Trump landslide, but then they find enough “postal votes” down the back of a sofa somewhere to turn it into a narrow Harris win.

The fix is already in

Kamala by a nose

Democracy wins….

“Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump needs to flip at least three of these to win”

I think it depends which three, because of the different numbers of electoral college votes.

The FT has a nice little fantasy election tool here (free, but needs email registration):
https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/polls/

If they’ve got it right, and everywhere except your six go the way they’re expected to, then I think:
– he could do it with just two of the six, if they’re Pennsylvania and North Carolina;
– he could get three of them and still lose, if one’s Nevada and he doesn’t get Pennsylvania.

Calculators at the ready!

I’d have thought CapX would have better standards than allowing TDS articles – https://capx.co/american-democracy-is-hanging-in-the-balance/

The Leftist really like to project their own prejudices onto others don’t they!

The average age of homebuyers in the U.S. has risen by six years since July 2023 — another sign that younger Americans are being priced out of the market due to escalating ownership costs.

The average age of homebuyers is now 56

Bloody hell.

“The average age of homebuyers is now 56”

First time homebuyers?

I confidently predict a record number of votes counted.
Even more than last time.
Maybe not actually cast, but certainly counted.

Henry Crun – the list of formerly counterculture or “radical” celebrities now supporting the regime nomenklatura BlackRock wants you to vote for is long.

Rage Against The Machine are now Rage Against The White Working Class.

Steve – So how does cutting public services help the white working class. How does cutting taxes for the Rich help the white working class.
You are as thick as pig **** for thinking a billionaire far right winger cares about the white working class.

Real Man – how angry are you going to be if Trump wins?

Will you bite your pillow?

Real Man
“So how does cutting public services help the white working class”

Because with lower taxes and less government interference, the economy improves and they have jobs. And that’s important. For a lot of people, providing for yourself and your family is more important than getting government handouts.

It’s sort of in the name ‘working class’.

And homophobic people are normally repressed homsexuals. FACT.

Aranchnophobe, eh? I bet you secretly want to fuck spiders.

But fear of spiders is not sexual. Why do you fear gays enough to insult gays?
I think we all know why?
Homophobes are normally repressed gay people..

Progressive policies don’t help the working class though they do provide comfy government paid sinecures for progressive policy makers.

Generally, red states, largely governed by Republicans, are economically outperforming blue states. California, a Democratic governed state, has the highest poverty rate in the nation when adjusted for living costs per the US Census Dept. As for those mentions about young people not being able to buy houses and the average age of buyers is creeping up, well older folks are largely white, and their kids will likely one day inherit well, whereas many of their minority peers often will not.

There’s a reason the Democratic party has lost of a lot of its white working class support and why it may be losing some minority support. Their policies harm the people they purport to help.

“So now you accuse people of being gay.”

Are you not proud to be gay? Its called Pride Month after all. Be out and proud!

Anyone would think you are ashamed that someone might think you like a bit of bum fun (as Myfanwy might have said to Dafydd)

“Using that logic any man who calls himself by his own name is not really called that.”

I believe some rappers used that style in the nineties/noughties or so.
They weren’t men indeed. They were poncy pratts with overinflated ego’s.
So yeah…… the logic is sound..

‘Aranchnophobe, eh? I bet you secretly want to fuck spiders.’

Thank you Steve.

I wonder whether he’d like a funnel-web?? Plenty of them in Oz.

@Henry Crun
Rogan leans towards drug legislation and often talks about benefits of psychedelic therapy so The Needle and The Damage done would be a interesting discussion if they ever did a podcast together

Real Man – that’s quite enough of your gay spider erotica, thank you.

Bboy – they say it takes all sorts, but they’re wrong.

TD – There’s a reason the Democratic party has lost of a lot of its white working class support and why it may be losing some minority support. Their policies harm the people they purport to help.

Well, yarp. Having a two party system where both parties are out to rob you blind, fill your town with Haitians, and leave you dead in a Net Zero ditch is suboptimal. In this election, the Insane Clown Posse is offering a future of insanity and death, as the town bike erupts pharmaceutical grade cackles and her trusted imperial eunuch Tim Walz gaily prances across the stage to do his best impression of a 1980’s TV dad.

Are Americans dumb or crooked enough to put a ho in the White House? Did Peanut the squirrel die in vain? Is there a brand of Febreeze strong enough to get the smell of fish out of the Oval Office soft furnishings? Steve no have answers, only time will tell.

Deeply ignorant question for our hosts. We all know with a UK election we can listen out for Sunderland, or whoever is competing to be first to declare, and already know whether we are looking at a clear victory for one side (not the individual constituencies but the overall numbers) or a long night. That Sunderland is always labour doesn’t matter, the shift in the vote tells us enough.

Is there anywhere in the US that is equally early and useful? Obviously not Dixon’s Bucket or wherever. But anywhere else? What is our earliest indication?

Andrew, yes, your best bet for cambeings is spiders tonight. As a longstanding member of the squirrel-suited-identifying community, I can confirm we are still in an official period of mourning and live entertainment options are thus very limited.

Link to CNN video clip for above comment

https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1853742847997997495

It’s almost as if America (PBUH) doesn’t want any politician to win both Houses and likes politicians to not be able to do things to them.

Can’t blame them for that. The best state is small enough to drown in your bath tub. USA is a long way from that, so keeping the mad pols from having both House and Senate at the same time is sensible.

Useful.

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/

Kentucky called for Trump (8 EC)

Vermont called for Harris (3 EC)

West Virginia called for Trump (4 EC)

Early showings look good.
Beer three cracked.

No surprises for either side thus far though.

Plenty of cheat indicators coming in.

Betfair Now:
Trump 1.4 – lowest ever
Harris 3.5 – (highest ever matched was 150 so a long way to drift yet)

Gosh, Harris is only 0.2% ahead in Virginia, with 40% of the vote counted.

OK, it depends on which areas count first as to whether that’s relevant. But if Trump did win there, that’s a game changer; he could then win without Pennsylvania.

Gosh, Harris is only 0.2% ahead in Virginia, with 40% of the vote counted.

My counter shows Trump ahead in VA by a cvnthair (0.2%)

I think our local businessman is going to do it for a second time. Unbelievable.

The only question is whether Trump will also take the popular vote.

He’s slightly ahead on the popular vote, but it’s like +0.4% probability.

Very close and narrow victory if he does win the popular vote.

New York Times currently estimating Electoral Collage of 295:243 in favour of Trump.

Nate Cohn Chief political analyst

“For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.”

PJF said:
“We’ve been here before, happy in the first half of the night.”

Aye, it’s all feeling a bit too familiar for any certainty. There seem to still be a lot of big city votes left to count, and who knows what they’ll find down the back of the watercooler.

CNN is saying they’ll tabulate 100K absentee ballots in PA at midnight

Nate Cohn Chief political analyst

“Another hour has gone by, but the story is still the same: Trump is favored in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and we’ll just have to wait longer to see whether, maybe, just maybe, Harris will do better than expected in key Democratic areas.”

The Harris spokeshole has come out and told all of her supporters to go home. They also told the media to leave. She didn’t even have the courage to come out and address her supporters. Very Hillary like

Nate Cohn Chief political analyst

“While it might be several hours until the race can be called, our estimates say Donald Trump is very likely to win the presidency. Kamala Harris almost certainly needs to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and Trump is a clear favorite in each.”

The first major cloggie news outlets are calling it for Trump.

Mainly based on the principle that Harris did not get enough margin in the generally more “progressive” urban areas, versus the far more “conservative” rural areas.
General undercurrent in the ..Opinions.. of the Journo’s seems to be the Dems turned too “progressive” too fast, which caused a “conservative” backlash.

The more socialist Progressive outlets are of the opinion the Long March should be resumed with greater vigour, as one does in tose circles of course…

@Grikath
After P’Nut squirrels are too Trumpian.

It looks to be in the bag, too big to cheat (maybe 290+ when done). Likewise the Senate. Even the House is in play.

Yay.

BBC’s just called Pennsylvania for Trump.

I bet that was a hard pill to swallow.

I know about the ‘Red Wave’, I believe if cheating can do it, they will, but….please can I celebrate now?

They think it’s all over…

IT IS NOW!

Break out the popcorn, are going to be some epic meltdowns today

– I’m going to bed now.

I’m just going to stay up and zombie through the day.

Wow, just wow

I just didn’t think it was possible with the massed ranks of lefties controlling the vote and media

New ron rule of US politics: leftie harridans don’t become President ?

Now all he has to do is stay alive until inauguration…

Now we need a Project MEGA

Make England Great Again

Unless some really weird things happen, it looks like Reps are actually going to do a hattrick…

When was the last time President, House, and Senate aligned?

@Andy: ’Break out the popcorn, are going to be some epic meltdowns today’

None likely to be more epic than Matlis and Guru-Murthy on Ch4!

Nice news to wake up to…

When do the new Senate and House commence? Is it the same as the Presidency in January.

If so there might still be some petty malarkey and shenanigans in a lame duck senate and maybe even courtesy of some dripping wet congressional RINOs .

On the plus side not long to wait until we hopefully see Secretary of State for Defence Tulsi Gabbard (very happy face).

https://babylonbee.com/news/tulsi-gabbard-finally-realizes-shes-far-too-attractive-to-be-a-democrat

“ I suspect he’ll propose that Putin can hold the provinces he’s won, and the rest of Ukraine’ll be independent.”

Kursk throws a spanner in those works. If Putin wants Kursk back he’ll be expected to give up on one of the areas he’s occupied, for now.

Ukraine has no choice but the Arnold J. Rimmer option. Their only flexibility is how many more Ukrainians they sacrifice before doing this.

“We surrender, totally, unconditionally, and immediately”.
Broadcast on all known frequencies in all known languages.

That Chinese chappie had something to sday about how to avoid being annihilated by an overwhelminingly superior foe.

An object lesson in what happens to US pawns. Taiwan should take note.

It didn’t have to be this way, but they permitted the comedian to dance as instructed. They can still save what’s left of their nation, and start to learn to live with the neighbours. A western rump of “Ukraine” may be allowed to continue, in a Finlandised manner. But for sure, it matters not one whit what anyone in the US or EU thinks about it.

Next up: when will Germany realise they are being sacrificed too?

@Boganboy
Why would the Chinese need to invade Oz when they can just buy it?
IIRC, huge swathes of agricultural land have been bought up by Chinese businesses, as have a lot of your politicians. I read a book recently on just how infiltrated your government/education/law has become.

On the upside, perhaps they’ll bring some power stations 🙂

BiND – The disquiet felt by China over the sending of North Korean troops to Ukraine

I would put money on there being zero North Korean troops in or anywhere near Ukraine. It’s a story that makes no sense unless we live in the Team America World Police universe, but it does make a lot of sense for propaganda purposes.

You’ve got a point TtC.

Hopefully they’ll be nukes instead of windmills!!

@Steve
It’s difficult to see how effective they’d be. The modern battle space is an information war as much as anything else. To disseminate information of value you need rapid & reliable communications because information goes stale very fast. The Russians haven’t shown much capability in this on their own, working in their own language. Add a big language barrier?
N. Korean “special forces” might be very capable troops. But how are you coordinate their actions in real time with other forces at squad level? So they’d end up as just mass attack cannon fodder. Unlikely they could be used effectively in a defensive role, where you need to be responding quickly to your opponent’s moves.

As for the Ukraine war under Trump. Trump’s a poker player rather than a chess player whereas the Biden administration would struggle with Happy Families. He’s actually similar to Putin. It’s notable that Putin didn’t make any serious excursions in Ukraine in the period 16-20. Was that because he couldn’t predict what US reactions could be? Trump’s quite capable of saying one thing for public consumption while actually doing something entirely different. He doesn’t leave a chessboard where you can analyse future moves. Putin’s just looking at the reverse side of a hand of cards.

Channel 4 risks self-immolation.
One gathers Boris took the piss out of them most royally.