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I dunno, really, I dunno

So, a claim here:

We know that more than a dozen trans teens have taken their lives since the puberty blocker ban was introduced in the UK, despite the government’s best efforts to cover that up: its small inquiry into trans suicides discounted documented trans suicides.

We don;t know where that proof or claim comes from. But:

NHS England appraisal of Tavistock audit
I have examined the figures provided by NHSE on deaths in each year between 2018-19 and 2023-24. They are based on an internal audit by the Tavistock of deaths among current and former GIDS patients, divided by age (under 18 or 18 plus) and cause of death (suicide or other/suicide not confirmed).

It is important to acknowledge in describing suicide statistics that the figures are not dry data; they represent real lives lost.

The numbers are small: by this breakdown, by year, age and cause, the highest count is 2. Conventional practice in presenting small numbers, based on guidance from the Office for National Statistics, is not to present figures lower than 3, to avoid possible identification of individuals. In this review I refer to aggregate figures only.

In this period of 6 years the data show a total of 12 suicides: 6 in the under 18s, 6 in those 18 and above. In the 3 years leading up to 2020-21, there were 5 suicides, compared to 7 in the 3 years after. This is essentially no difference, taking account of expected fluctuations in small numbers, and would not reach statistical significance. In the under 18s specifically, there were 3 suicides before and 3 after 2020-21.

And, well, I dunno, eh? Because who do we believe? A highly committed polemicist or the government?

11 thoughts on “I dunno, really, I dunno”

  1. I’d trade a dozen mentalists topping themselves to avoid society mutilating 100s of children in the name of wokeism.

  2. Once read that suicide attempts outnumber suicides by 12:1 in NI&GB. The ratio is 6:1 in US, presumably because guns mean you’re more likely to succeed. Could be misremembering the numbers but the point is this: because of the low numbers of successful suicides if any social science researcher ever finds a way to accurately and consistently record suicide attempts then kudos! : you’ve just made a number of disciplines an order of magnitude more useful or less unuseful.

  3. I ask myself: irrespective of the facts what would the goollie-loppers say, in their own self-interest? Then I compare it with what they’ve said. Not much difference!

  4. “Who do we believe? A highly committed polemicist or the government?”

    Tough one. Are we allowed to answer “neither”?

  5. You believe whichever confirms your own prejudice, obvs. It’s highly unlikely that you’ll get the information to form a sound opinion.

  6. This is pretty much what I thought when I first heard it. Changes in policy make no measurable difference in suicide rates because they’re unhappy people to start with and no policy change will make them measurably less unhappy.

  7. Isn’t the relevant statistic comparing suicide levels between those who had the op vs those with transsexual leanings who didn’t? That doesn’t seem to be given.

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