The UK economy had zero growth between July and September and is expected to have stagnated over the entire second half of 2024, undermining Keir Starmer’s promise to reboot growth.
In an unexpected downgrade as Labour comes under pressure over its economic management since taking power in July, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed growth in the third quarter was revised down to zero, below an initial estimate of 0.1% made last month.
Growth in the second quarter was also downgraded, from 0.5% to 0.4%.
Imagine you were trying to do that Keynesian demand management. You were aboslutely certain that this is the way the economy works, you should be fiddling with tax and spending – and the deficit – to ensure growth at a steady pace without inflation.
Then you find out that the information you’ve got to work with is always 6 months out of date by the time it is finally nailed down – as with that Q2 number.
You should – note should – conclude that even if the theory’s right you’ve not the info to make it work.
You know, Hayek was right?
That’s a standard effect from control theory. You expect negative feedback to smooth out variations but if it’s delayed you get oscillation instead. Pilots also know it as ‘pilot induced oscillation’, with predictably bad effects.
“That’s a standard effect from control theory.” It’s also a standard effect of being in the school showers after rugby.
I remember a documentary where Soviet era Russian economists were being interviewed on how they managed the Soviet economy. They were very proud of the work they did, with their models and computer systems where they would calculate all sorts of things such as the optimal number of miles per year that a taxi driver should drive. They also did things like provide guidance to clothing manufacturers such as they should design and make nice summer dresses for women as the summer was going to be a scorcher that year.
And yet they were so upset and disappointed that it never seemed to work as intended. The clothing manufacturers would nearly always ignore their guidance due to the lack of any incentive to follow it. As for the taxi drivers, they would talk to a mechanic friend who would help them exceed their yearly milage quota.
On the general subject of “It’s all lies” I’ve just come across this.
Many performance cars now have a soundtrack so that full throttle sounds like you are really beating the ponies senseless. On some cars, it is a recorded soundtrack. On some, a microphone feeds some of the real exhaust sound through your speakers.
Nowadays, I have only a passing interest in the Budget, but even so I do wonder where the “Re-” came from. To me it just seemed as if “boot” was the purpose as in “put the boot in”. If an economy had testicles, that’s where Reeve’s “stimulus” would have been applied, leaving the economy writhing on the ground wishing it was dead. I suppose that job’s been delegated to Ed…
dearieme: I read somewhere that this is a thing on EVs too. In the US you can even get one that ‘changes gear’, with acceleration glitches…
In an unexpected downgrade
Unexpected by who?
I’d also note, that in the US, these statistics have a remarkable tendency to “miss” in a predictable pattern. When a Dem is President, especially the closer you get to an election, the job numbers that are announced and widely discussed in the media tend to be adjusted downward quietly some weeks later. Just one example.
And in 2012 when Hopey McChange was running for reelection the last report before the election showed, mirabile dictu, that unemployment had finally fallen below 7%. It was some weeks later that it was discovered that a number of Democrat-run areas hadn’t reported their numbers in time to be included.
So, not only out of date, but dishonest information.
Outrageous idea: Government ceases economic management, returns public services to the private sector (whence they came), stops taxing, stops spending.
Just like it was at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution which happened despite/because no Government economic management, taxation, etc.
The only surprise I have is that these numbers are being reported on, and relatively timely.
In the US, the numbers would have been juiced up to provide positive reports for the media to report on. Then some time later they would have been revised downward and no reporting would have been done on the revision (save for the ‘bad people who notice things’).
OT but that thing that was never supposed to happen has happened again:
Canada’s assisted-death law is unconstitutional and exposing people with coexisting physical and mental illness to “heightened risks of premature death” facilitated by the state, according to a wrongful death claim filed by the family of a 52-year-old man who was euthanized in a Vancouver clinic while out on a day pass from a hospital psychiatric ward.
Dr Mengle wasn’t a one off:
Among those named is Dr. Ellen Wiebe, one of Canada’s most prolific providers of medically assisted death who has administered life-ending drugs to more than 400 people.
Despite having three children and other relatives who presumably love him, the Canadian authorities decided to talk a psychiatric patient on day release into suicide. This guy should have been feeding the ducks or something, and they straight up murdered him:
Identified only as J.M.M., the B.C. man had a long history of mental illness and was formally diagnosed with bipolar disorder around 2013, according to a statement of claim filed in the Supreme Court of British Columbia by the man’s former spouse, his father and his three children.
He also suffered from “remediable,” meaning treatable, chronic back pain, the family alleges. His back pain “was neither grievous nor irremediable and therefore did not meet the statutory eligibility criteria for MAID,” according to their claim.
No, they really did:
In late 2022, the family obtained a court order committing J.M.M. to the psychiatric ward of St. Paul’s Hospital, where his treating doctors “opined that J.M.M. should not receive MAID due to his mental illness, which impaired his capacity to consent,” according to the claim.
“Nonetheless, the defendants negligently or recklessly” allowed J.M.M. to leave the hospital on a day pass, the family alleges. The man went to Wiebe’s clinic that afternoon and died “through the improper administration of MAID,” according to the claim. The family said they only learned of his death afterward.
Anybody want to bet that when the NHS officially starts killing people, it’ll be the quickest and most efficient service they provide (except parking tickets)?
If you fancy frightening yourself stupid, google images of Dr Ellen Wiebe, its as if the angel of death has human form.
salamander: Exactly. From the outside, the whole Gosplan business was obviously a metric cartload of absolute bollocks. “Ah, Comrade, we will need 27.6% more yellow toothbrushes over the next five years.” But imagine living inside that system: you’ve got all these well-paid, highly educated Experts spending their whole lives beavering away at figuring all this out, examining statistics, producing Reports and Plans… there must be something to it, right?
“The family said they only learned of his death afterward.”
Well that must have been a bitter blow to Aunty Mystic Mavis.
Jim – this isn’t even the first mental patient Dr Wiebe has killed, or tried to kill, despite mental illness not currently being included in the laws permitting murder by doctor:
The woman had applied for Maid citing akathisia, a movement disorder linked to changing doses of psychotropic or antipsychotic medication. The woman experienced
“distressing side-effects” after reducing her dosage of a medication used to treat bipolar disorder. Among the symptoms were “an inner sense of terror all day long, the inability to sleep at night, nightmares, the inability to lie down during the day due to a feeling of falling, the inability to sit or remain still, suicidal thoughts”.
The woman and her partner were told that the condition was treatable and that the symptoms could resolve within months, according to court documents. As a result, doctors did not approve her request for assisted death.
The woman found Wiebe and met with her via Zoom. “At the end of the first meeting, Dr Wiebe approved [the woman] for Maid,” the claim says.
Dr Shipman is back, except this time, he’s doing it openly and smirking that it’s about “human rights”.
Like Norman Bates and his interest in taxidermy and dresses, serial killers often have related hobbies:
In addition to her MAID work, Wiebe runs a contraception and medical abortion clinic in Vancouver.
The UK weather has hovered at zero temperatures and is expected to stay the same, undermining Keir Starmer’s promise to boost nice sunny days.
In an unexpected downgrade as Labour comes under pressure over its weather management since taking power in July, figures from the Met Office showed growth in nice days in the third quarter was revised down to zero.
WTF will politicians learn that “the economy” is an external environment that you live in.
“If you fancy frightening yourself stupid, google images of Dr Ellen Wiebe, its as if the angel of death has human form.”
Er, no noticing please.
@Steve – “OT but that thing that was never supposed to happen has happened again:”
What was the thing that was never supposed to happen? Unless it’s “someone makes an allegation about MAID”, what you have quoted is not evidence of it happening. An allegation is not necessarily true. Gte back to us when the case has been decided.
Unrelated, but I thought our host might enjoy this exchange.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os6Ex7-ZOi8
Snigger
“ What a horrible, rude,. disrespectful and obnoxious guest that Richard Murphy is. Ghastly. Don’t ever invite him back again.”
Charles – well, we have one doctor who boasts of killing over 400 Canadians so far, (not including all the babbies she’s snuffed).
Her colleague boasts of a killstreak of over 300. These are undisputed facts. In addition to the rapidly accreting complaints and lawsuits, there is also a growing track record of the Canadian authorities allowing these serial killers with medical degrees to do whatever they want, even when it’s blatantly in defiance of their own laws and procedures governing doctors killing patients:
A Vancouver doctor accused of “sneaking in and killing someone” at a Jewish nursing home has been cleared of wrongdoing by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of B.C.
…
In a July 5 letter, the college’s lawyer informed Wiebe she would not face any discipline for helping Hyman defy the rules and die in his room.
…
Louis Brier allows residents to undergo assessments for a medically-assisted death on site, but says they must be transferred to another health-care facility to have the procedure done. It’s common for faith-based facilities to bar assisted death and sometimes even assessments for the procedure on site.
We also know that Canadia plans to loosen the death rules – which they already don’t enforce – even further.
If you can’t see danger here, perhaps you have the survival instincts of one of Calhoun’s rats? Which would seem to be a Charles problem, and not a Steve one.
I mean, “hurr durr do we have any EVIDENCE two doctors who have killed over 700 people between them are BAD?” – I bet you got the Covid jabs.
The comments under that clip (thanks,Bathroom Moose) are very perceptive. Marvellous how Capt. Potato has worked on his rictus smile but he still needs to work on attenuating the snarl.
It has to be asked, after seeing the photographs, is Dr Ellen Wiebe really a she?
Thanks bathroom moose…. 😀
Now it’s waiting for the Diatribe on Spud’s usual Outlets to see how he has been Wronged… 😉
@Steve – “…rapidly accreting complaints and lawsuits…”
So more unproven allegations. And complaints that people have used the service that you think shouldn’t be available to them. You’re not helping your case here.
– “If you can’t see danger here, perhaps you have the survival instincts of one of Calhoun’s rats?”
On the contrary, I am very keen on assisted suicide being out in the open and legal so that it doesn’t leave medics presuming what I want.