Sir Keir Starmer has announced he is “ready and willing” to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal.
So, the Rooskies have 250,000 troops on the ground? The Ukies 200k? Those numbers are wrong, obviously, but they’re of the right sort of order.
British Army is 25k troops all told? 50k?
So British troops would be a tripwire. Kill any of ours and we’ll send a really stiffly worded letter you know. Because international law really does mean something. No, really.
It’s abject nonsense, no?
Peacekeepers usually are. Mighty military powers such as Ireland and Austria often provide troops to the UN in their dozens. Mind you any actual shooting and they’re out of there.
British peacekeepers ( eg in ex Yugoslavia ) have an unfortunate tendency to ‘get stuck in’ if a ruck starts. Mind you with Spanner at the helm, I can see this as being one almighty balls up like post invasion Iraq was for the Army.
He cares about the Ukranian border then? At least he’s found one he likes.
The British Army of the Balkans era was a very different beast to that of today. More importantly, the British public and political class bears almost no resemblance.
I wonder if this is Starmer – who, remember, said he chose Davos over Westminster – floating the possibility of an action that might drag the US in via NATO?
If so he’s even more stupid than I thought; I think Trump is more likely just to leave NATO than be suckered.
I’m sure Macron would like to play “Emperor of Europe” with the British army under his command as small part of the European army.
I see Stammer in more of a Baldrick role.
Mutinies have been the catalyst for collapse of regimes and political orders before now. I think that could be the next exiting stop on the Yookays never ending helter skelter..
Funny how he seems comfortable with a ‘peace deal’ that hands over sovereign territory to an aggressor, yet also happy to hand over £18bn of our money just because ‘international law’ says so.
Flexible sort of thing, this international law; almost seems it’s whatever politicians want it to be.
It’s abject nonsense, no?
Abject?
Starmer is dim enough not to realise that this is Trump’s punishment:
The US gets rid of the Ukrainian tarbaby and Europe gets to bear all the costs and risks going forward. The stuff about rare earths was Trump looking for an exit. He famously doesn’t like the US coming home empty handed.
So British troops would be a tripwire. Kill any of ours and we’ll send a really stiffly worded letter you know
Yarp, the Yanks aren’t coming if things kick off.
NB that the danger isn’t only or even necessarily chiefly from Russia. Ukraine is full of heavily armed Nazis who have persuaded themselves they would have defeated the Russian Orc, if not from the “stab in the back” of NATO only giving them hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid instead of all the military aid.
Everything about this bloke is abject nonsense. He gets an HIV test for no reason at all, just to encourage other world leaders to get one. Nothing at all to do with his staying with a gay Moslem during lockdown which was simply to give his son a bit of peace to study. He sends Labour activists to the USA to try to get the nutcase vegetable Harris elected and thinks this will have no effect on President Trump. He gives away property to a country that his other good friend is acting for and pays someone £18,000,000,000 up front to make sure they take it. He says open borders are great except one 1500 miles away which he will send a couple of far right white blokes to defend against 9,542,637 Russians. He appoints as energy security minister a bloke prone to wandering around windmills playing a ukulele while singing Dylan songs. I give up, just let me out of here…
I’d have to agree Grist!!
I’ve been wondering what Trump is actually trying to achieve here. I suspect it’s mainly getting the Euro to pick up the tab for their own defense needs. They’ve been freeloading on the US of A since at least ’89 if not ’45. The price being a slice of Ukraine.
But I think there’s something else. Rightly, he sees the Euro political class as a hostile power. This is going to drive a great big wedge through the EU. Between the nations who will step up & pay their share & the ones who’ll talk about it & won’t. The Vance speech indicates he’d like to liberate Europeans from their own political classes.
Brilliant summary Grist.
I was originally going to make a Dads Army joke about Starmer. But they were patriots fighting for Britain so it didn’t feel right.
BiS – I think the Americans have realised that paying for the defence of countries that despise them, and that are rapidly replacing their own people with Muhammadjihads who also despise them, is a waste of cash.
Now Sir Keir and the other AIDS test people get to put their taxpayers’ money where their mouths are (Zelenskyyy’s boxer shorts). They “can’t afford” £2bn to save British pensioners from freezing to death, but they can afford £3Bn a year for Ukraine.
Now Europe and the UK will discover lots more things they can’t afford.
As usual with this type of statement, the interesting part will be the implementation.
For one example, oft overlooked, we’ve had a battlegroup (getting on for a thousand troops) in Estonia for years now (Op CABRIT). The intent is not that they will single-handedly turn back the Red Horde if it tries to seize the Suwalki Gap, but that – as part of a multinational force – if the Russians kick off, they’ll cause casualties to a number of NATO nations, which triggers deploying the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps to do more than write a sternly-worded letter to Putin to tell him how angry we are.
Now, there’s always the issue of how credible that is (think back to 1990, and the US 82nd Airborne thinly spread along the Saudi border with Iraq and its new “nineteenth province” – militarily they were just speedbumps on the road to Riyadh, but politically killing some US troops was going to end badly for Hussein) but the uniformed personnel involved are definitely taking it seriously all the way up to Innsworth.
But also, remember that there’s not just “us and the US” in NATO, and wonder just what would happen if – for a thought experiment – the Russians decided to stage a “demonstration” against the peacekeeping force, and killed a few Polish troops in the confusion; and the Poles decide that, to avoid overreaction and limit escalation, they need to advance “peace preservation forces” into Kaliningrad to reduce the risk of any further “misunderstandings”. Not sure the Russians have much left in the locker to stop them with… or who’d pile in on their side.
The Russians tickling Poland would be …interesting….
The Polish are simply waiting for an excuse….
and wonder just what would happen if – for a thought experiment – the Russians decided to stage a “demonstration” against the peacekeeping force, and killed a few Polish troops in the confusion; and the Poles decide that, to avoid overreaction and limit escalation, they need to advance “peace preservation forces” into Kaliningrad to reduce the risk of any further “misunderstandings”.
Poland would find out what nuclear weapons taste like.
‘Poland would find out what nuclear weapons taste like.’
Well Steve, I see you support my view that the Ukies’ biggest error was to get rid of their nukes.
Of course the Aussie government even forbids nuclear power stations.
How is it that the same people who keep telling us the Russians are a busted flush also keep telling us that if we don’t stop him in Ukraine he’ll be in Kent next week?
The truth is in the middle. The Russians have plenty lefty but they have no interest in Kent.
NATO is fuck all without the Septics, sorry to say.
Starmer is a complete yard
Any peacekeeping deployment to Ukraine would not be under the NATO banner (the US would veto it)
Of course starmer and turnip would get the ultimate lefty justification, a United Nations mandate. That’s worked well in the middle east
Time for the EU to put it’s house in order if it believes what it says
If I were a squaddie ordered to deploy to Ukraine by Starmer, Hermer and the other lawyer-cvnts actually or de-facto running our govt I’d tell them to fvck off.
Things would likely get pretty tasty in Ukraine and the knowledge that my leaders are ambulance-chasing, traitorous human rights litigators who’d sue me, permit me to be sued or subject me to years of enquiry, merely for using harsh words against an enemy, is not a good basis for me to be there.
Vance has essentially just told the Euro political class that they’re a bunch of useless, powerless cunts, and he’s right. The USA is going to do what it wants – what’s actually needed – and the EU can do jack shit about it because they’ve pissed away all their power with Net Zero and unfettered immigration.
In the long term Trump wants Russia in the Western orbit – an actual part of the West – because he thinks their fundamental values align with his. This is necessary to keep the lid on China.
As far as the Mozzers are concerned, China gives them no quarter anyway so a Western/Chinese alliance in this regard will eventually put them back in their box. Actually sorting out the Middle East – i.e. giving Iran back to the Persians, ejecting the pikeys from Gaza to Jordan where the 1922 Mandate says they should always have been, and restoring Israel From The river To The Sea – is part of this.
Europe can join in or die. Trump would rather it joins in but if it’s determined to commit suicide, Trump won’t stop it. What he will do – is doing – is help the Euro political movements that will oust the useless, powerless cunts, and which also happen to have values more aligned with his and Russia’s.
Bboy – Well Steve, I see you support my view that the Ukies’ biggest error was to get rid of their nukes.
No Eastern European country should be allowed nukes. They’re not stable or wise enough for that to be a good idea. The Poles or Lithuanians might start WW3 on the basis that, although it’ll lead to their total annihilation, it will also kill a lot of Russians.
In Ukraine’s case, it would have been much cheaper to just not become a political chew toy contested by bigger dogs. But Ukraine has been stuck with a revolving cast of Slavic kleptocrats since 1991, who have stolen all the wealth and assets the Ukrainian state used to command. They achieved “independence” without achieving sovereignty, that’s their tragedy. (Same as ours)
If the collective rulers of the UK/EU think they’ll be able to use the peace settlement as a vehicle for more anti-Russian fuckery, the nukes will fly. Oreshnik was their final warning and the Roosians have been practicing atomic strike drills, next time the Russians will simply burn Two Tier, and his AIDS test, to a greasy crisp in a shower of highly energetic neutrons. NATO has lost this proxy war, there’s no future in pretending to have won.
Blyat!
There is, of course, that other area of dispute. Transnistria. Which is relevant to the EU frontier Romania/Moldova. And no Steve, Moldovans aren’t more of your fictional Nazis
And in passing, there’s little more irritating than reading the opinions of Brit suburban provincials on Eastern Europe.
We should listen to geriatric pimps in Spain instead?
“they were patriots fighting for Britain”: aye, but the bastards never returned my father’s shotguns. Light fingered so-and-sos.
In lighter news, here’s the degree of delusion Vice President Vance is dealing with:
Joint statement from the Nordic-Baltic leaders
We stand fully and firmly behind Ukraine. Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia’s war of aggression, to ensure a just and lasting peace. The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security.
Our priority now is to strengthen Ukraine. Our countries are some of the largest per-capita contributors of military assistance to Ukraine. We will further bolster our support.
We are engaging with Ukraine, the United States and all our NATO Allies and EU partners on how to achieve peace through strength. We fully commit to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine should be given strong security guarantees. Ukraine and Europe must be involved in any negotiations to achieve just and lasting peace.
We are investing strongly in our own defence. We are determined to further strengthen our collective security and defence, and to shoulder our responsibility for peace and security in Europe.
Talking mad shit for people who have just lost a war.
There’s a good joke from SpongeBob Squarepants, that goes: “How many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man?”
In the case of the Scandicucks and those little barky Baltic states, I don’t think they’ll ever learn.
British troops protecting Russia’s treaty formalised occupation of Ukrainian territories is what the Russians claim Trump’s “peace plan” entails. That Starmer appears to be onboard with this is interesting in many ways, but if such a disaster comes to pass it’ll at least be amusing to watch the pro-Russian contingent here juggling “Starmer is a moron” for doing what “Trump the genius says”.
I have no idea what Trump intends at these negotiations; the statements and rollbacks in recent days have been quite Bidenesque. He has two main control levers: increase or decrease military support for Ukraine; increase or decrease sanctions on Russia. I doubt either has quite the pull he thinks to bring the conflict to a quick end.
– And in passing, there’s little more irritating than reading the opinions of Brit suburban provincials on Eastern Europe.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Why do it then?
‘The Poles or Lithuanians might start WW3 on the basis that, although it’ll lead to their total annihilation, it will also kill a lot of Russians.’
This IS the whole principle of nuclear deterrance, Steve.
I’d argue that the Eastern Europeans are just as fit to have nukes as the rest of us. Of course you might care to argue that none of us are fit to have the damn things.
As for the Ukies, I’d argue that my opinion was much the same as yours. I was perfectly happy when Gorby and his lot withdrew from Eastern Europe. Being a totally selfish bloke, the notion I’d always supported was that I shouldn’t be communised. Once the Russkies no longer threatened to do that, I wasn’t concerned that they’d still be oppressing those they’d enslaved.
Alas the Yanks decided to make sure Ukraine was completely liberated. And now it’s turned into another forever war, they’ve decided to dump it in Europe’s lap. Damifino what you’ll do with it.
But if it was my problem, I’d push the Germans and East Europeans into a massive nuclear armament drive. Of course, this could lead to most of Europe nuking itself to hell, while the Russians kill themselves laughing.
As for Oz, I naturally believe that we need more nukes than the lot of you could build in a century.
– In Ukraine’s case, it would have been much cheaper to just not become a political chew toy contested by bigger dogs.
Please explain, preferably without the use of psychoactive substances, quite how Ukraine would have achieved this status, cheaply or otherwise.
Steve, you’ve repeatedly proved you know little of Eastern European history. You ever even been there?
Transnistria isn’t going to be a factor any time soon.
Ukraine wants it because of the giant arms store there (they won’t get it. No doubt its been rigged so it goes boom before our favourite penis piano player has a chance of getting his hands on it (the weapons, not his penis).
Moldova consider it theirs. Transnistria wants to be independent of Chisinau.
Neither Moldova or Transnistria are a threat to anyone except each other and there isn’t the popular support for fighting over it anymore anyway. A lot of People in that area have lots of family on both sides so don’t want to see more fighting over it.
Russia have a small peacekeeping force on the “border”, that usually looks very bored. I think it’s more of a publicity thing. “Look we send our troops as peacekeepers and it works!”
Ukraine actually offered to kick the Russians out of Transnistria for Moldova in exchange for the weapons store as payment.
Chisinau, not being complete idiots despite their cosying up to the EU, said No Thanks.
. . . we’ve had a battlegroup (getting on for a thousand troops) in Estonia for years now (Op CABRIT). The intent is not that they will single-handedly turn back the Red Horde if it tries to seize the Suwalki Gap . . .
Well no; they’re hundreds of klicks and three countries away for one thing. I’ve always thought the Suwalki Gap notion has been overstated. It only exists on a map because the borders are stable and peaceable. Should the Russians / Belarusians suddenly attempt to join up and close it, the borders will become meaningless and there will be hundreds of miles of manouvre space.
It’s worth mentioning that there were no permanent NATO forces in the Balts for years after they joined. It was only when Russia started hoovering its old friends that arrangements were made.
@Cherny
I was thinking in terms of Putin using Transnistria to muddy the water. As you say, there are Russian “peacekeepers” policing a border outside of Russia.
PJF – but if such a disaster comes to pass it’ll at least be amusing to watch the pro-Russian contingent here juggling “Starmer is a moron” for doing what “Trump the genius says”.
Hopefully Trump tells him to jump off a cliff.
I have no idea what Trump intends at these negotiations; the statements and rollbacks in recent days have been quite Bidenesque. He has two main control levers: increase or decrease military support for Ukraine; increase or decrease sanctions on Russia. I doubt either has quite the pull he thinks to bring the conflict to a quick end.
This is indeed quite a problem for President Trump and there seems to only be a narrow path to thread the needle between winding down a failed proxy war and avoiding a humiliating, Afghanistan style black eye.
Russia gets a vote too. However, President Trump’s plan of talking to the Russians seems more likely to end in success than Biden’s plan to not talk to them.
Please explain, preferably without the use of psychoactive substances, quite how Ukraine would have achieved this status, cheaply or otherwise.
They should have adhered to the Minsk Agreements they signed with Russia and the West, that would have spared Ukraine being used as a speartip pointed at Moscow.
Bboy – No, the point of nuclear deterrence is that we *don’t* die in a flash fire. Dying means losing. We’d prefer the other guy to die or nobody to be killed.
But if it was my problem, I’d push the Germans and East Europeans into a massive nuclear armament drive. Of course, this could lead to most of Europe nuking itself to hell, while the Russians kill themselves laughing.
Germany would never risk the safety and comfort of its priceless Muslims and Africans that way.
BiS – Steve, you’ve repeatedly proved you know little of Eastern European history. You ever even been there?
The cycle of BiS:
10 Ignore what other people say
20 Accuse them of being ignorant
30 GOTO 10
I was thinking in terms of Putin using Transnistria to muddy the water.
Russia doesn’t need to muddy the waters, because Russia has won the war. We’re talking about the terms of Ukraine/NATO’s defeat here.
Unsurprisingly, the most deluded politicians in the world are keen to keep acting the Big Man, but being forced to expensively defend Ukraine’s new borders in perpetuity is not a prize, it’s a kick in the nutsack.
NO REFUNDS!
I’m interested in Bravefart’s suggestion that our troops might mutiny. Can officers simply resign their commissions?
What might the squaddies do? Pretend to be unwell? Go awol? Go on strike? Stage a putsch?
I suppose it never crossed the mind of Sir Pink Blancmange and other such creatures that their actions against soldiers might have Consequences. What interesting times we live in.
Only applies to you, Steve. You talk a lot of bollocks. Stick to your god-bothering.
BiS – You’re quite mardy for a madam. Meow!
DM – Bravefart is correct that Things would likely get pretty tasty in Ukraine
I think we’re going to see the war come home in the form of terrorism and organised crime. There’s going to be a lot of heavily armed but now unemployed drone specialists in Ukraine, plus all the military grade weapons that will be sold on the black market.
From a British army pov, patrolling the Dnieper is going to be NornIron 2.0. The Russians will be looking to fuck with them, and there will also be huge numbers of angry, disillusioned Ukrainians to deal with. It won’t be like Germany in 1988, that’s for sure.
. . . because Russia has won the war.
You forgot to stick your fingers in your ears and add the “tra, la, la, la.”
Russia hasn’t won. It holds some territories that it has acquired at enormous cost; and the holding appears to be at the limits of its powers. It is diplomatically isolated and economically vulnerable. In fact, it can now only win if Trump decides to let it. If Trump keeps things similar to the status quo (supplies, sanctions) then Russia will eventually falter. If Trump dials it up then Russia will falter more quickly.
I’ve no idea why Trump 2.0 would want Russia to win. Trump 1.0 upped the ante every time with them. He’s just stationed another 8,000 troops in Poland and the flow of weapons to Ukraine continues. He knows Russia is in serious trouble (tip: he doesn’t see your posts). To give Russia a victory would be dumb and make him look like a dumb loser.
It makes sense for Trump to be seen to make every gracious effort to accomodate Putin before chopping him off at the knees. I hope that’s what he’s up to, but buggered if I know.
Wiki say 75k full time plus others – 100k total.
If you mobilized every single one the UK would be lucky to put 25k *actual fighters* (the rest being support) on the line. That’s if you mobilized the whole Army, Ghurkas, reserves, etc.
>Interested
>February 17, 2025 at 8:20 am
>. . .
>I wonder if this is Starmer – who, remember, said he chose Davos over Westminster – floating the possibility >of an action that might drag the US in via NATO?
He would have to be mental if so. Putting tripwire troops in harm’s way isn’t going to pull the US in and if the UK an Russia actually go to way *because the UK starts it* I don’t believe there’s any obligation on NATO to support the UK. And the US can always walk away.
I mean, if TTK’s plan is to destroy NATO by sacrificing the UK . . .
>dearieme
February 17, 2025 at 3:32 pm
I’m interested in Bravefart’s suggestion that our troops might mutiny. Can officers simply resign their commissions?
They can resign (assuming they’ve met their minimum obligations) but the military doesn’t have to accept their resignation. They can’t just leave.
I’ve been wondering what Trump is actually trying to achieve here. I suspect it’s mainly getting the Euro to pick up the tab for their own defense needs. They’ve been freeloading on the US of A since at least ’89 if not ’45. The price being a slice of Ukraine.
Pretty much bollocks. Europe is already outspending the US in Ukraine, and for obvious reasons.
@PJF
He knows Russia is in serious trouble (tip: he doesn’t see your posts). To give Russia a victory would be dumb and make him look like a dumb loser.
Trump appears to be having a senile moment, thinking it’s still the 80’s and Russia is the other superpower.
Watching the sycophants on here trying to simultaneously justify every random pronouncement Trump makes and ignore the fact he goes on to flat out contradict them within days is amusing.
Though Starmer and Labour are looking far out of their depth here, the long term consequences could be worse for the Right in the UK. If Trump continues to act like a loose cannon with Russia, anyone not putting clear distance from him could end up looking badly compromised by a botched deal over Ukraine.
PJF – Russia hasn’t won.
“I’m not owned! I’m not owned!!”,
PJF continues to insist as he slowly shrinks and transforms into a corn cob
It holds some territories that it has acquired at enormous cost; and the holding appears to be at the limits of its powers
I bet Putin feels very silly now that Russia has grown by several million people and moved its borders west?
Britain and Russia paid a much higher price to defeat Nazi Germany, but I don’t see anyone claiming that means we didn’t *really* win WW2.
It is diplomatically isolated and economically vulnerable.
All those photos of Putin gladhanding Modi, Xi, various other Asian and African leaders suggest they’re not isolated.
Vulnerable? Sure – we’re all economically vulnerable due to this war. It cost the European economy trillions in energy bills alone. Several European governments have fallen so far, and the future in Europe looks very dangerous as Germany deindustrialises and socially disintegrates.
In fact, it can now only win if Trump decides to let it. If Trump keeps things similar to the status quo (supplies, sanctions) then Russia will eventually falter. If Trump dials it up then Russia will falter more quickly.
You’re assuming Russia is on the clock, but everyone else can take their sweet time. That’s not the case. The status quo is completely unsustainable – Ukraine can’t keep keep doing this indefinitely and it would be monstrous to expect them to. Russia is continuing to advance and take Ukrainian territory while we debate the war. NATO’s cupboard is bare and the European economy is dying due to high energy costs.
Politically, Americans are sick of this war and want out.
Something’s gotta give. If Trump did nothing, the UAF would give. Ukraine’s ability to resist would be ground down to nothing and then it’d be a rout. Nobody wants that, unless they live in Moscow.
I’ve no idea why Trump 2.0 would want Russia to win. Trump 1.0 upped the ante every time with them. He’s just stationed another 8,000 troops in Poland and the flow of weapons to Ukraine continues. He knows Russia is in serious trouble (tip: he doesn’t see your posts). To give Russia a victory would be dumb and make him look like a dumb loser.
The reason you’re having difficulty reconciling this is, as I told the honourable gentleman some moments ago, Russia has won the war. You will never be able to understand what’s happening while maintaining a false belief that Russia was about to collapse any day now etc.
Trump’s mission is to extricate the US – and hopefully also Ukraine – from this disastrous loss as gracefully as possible. This is a glitter rolling exercise, but I see the British government is insisting that it’s a glittery chocolate cake. My advice is not to eat it.
Ag – Putting tripwire troops in harm’s way isn’t going to pull the US in and if the UK an Russia actually go to way *because the UK starts it* I don’t believe there’s any obligation on NATO to support the UK. And the US can always walk away.
What’s been floated in the press is that they won’t be tripwire troops, they’ll be holding the entire bag. No NATO membership for Ukraine and no NATO presence in postwar Ukraine – Brits and Frogs will be there representing their own governments, not as a FOB for the US.
The US wants out, and the peace plan they’re allegedly looking at will be a peace plan – not a plan to rearm Ukraine and do it all over again in 2030. It’s the Euroweenies who couldn’t hear what Vice President Vance was trying to tell them over the sound of their own purple rage who are talking as if their imminent loss to Russia can be reframed as a victory.
But the exact same people think Net Zero and infinity immigration can be sustained, so don’t expect reason.
As to mutinying officers, the best example is Gen Sir Charles Harington. He ignored Lloyd George and attempted to arrive at a peaceful conclusion of the Chanak Crisis, where Kemal faced off against Allied troops in Constantinople.
Of course there is also the late Gen Mike Jackson, who when ordered to surround the Russian contingent at Pristina told Gen Wesley Clark “Shove it up your arse, gitfeatures.” Or something like that. My memory is not what it was…
Taking Trump literally but not seriously was the dems’ famous mistake.
The MSM seems to be taking Starmer seriously but not literally.
Another mistake. The man is a fantasist.
International law? ICJ, ECHR, blah blah. The man con’t even police 21 miles of English channel but thinks he can secure 1,000 miles of East European border.
Only when everything that comes out of Starmer’s mouth (including Lord Ali’s penis) is greeted with hoots of derision will I begin to believe we can recover our wits.
was thinking in terms of Putin using Transnistria to muddy the water. As you say, there are Russian “peacekeepers” policing a border outside of Russia.
Russia isn’t going to throw Transnistria around to try and gain anything. why would they?
They’re winning already.
And it would make them look bad for trying to screw over an area which they recognise as a country and is friendly.
Plus their peacekeeping force is doing a good job. There’s no fighting there. Which is what you want with a peacekeeping force. It’s quite an easy job at the moment as i said before, but they’re doing it well.
@PJF
Russia hasn’t won. It holds some territories that it has acquired at enormous cost; and the holding appears to be at the limits of its powers. It is diplomatically isolated and economically vulnerable. In fact, it can now only win if Trump decides to let it. If Trump keeps things similar to the status quo (supplies, sanctions) then Russia will eventually falter. If Trump dials it up then Russia will falter more quickly.
Russia is winning. It’s doing it steadily and carefully, trying to minimise civilian casualties. It is inflicting far more casualties on Ukraine than it suffers, despite what the MSM would have you think. Their armed forces are now larger than at the start of the conflict and they have more troops in the area than at the start, even with people leaving after their term was up (which has now been stopped).
It is trading with many countries, India, China, plenty of others, hardly isolated.
Ukraine on the other hand is having manpower problems, desertion problems, equipment problems, munition problems. They’re going to lose. Dragging it out at this point is immoral and will cost people their lives.
News of Russia’s victory is going to be warmly greeted by the hundreds of thousands of Russian refugees currently complaining about the quality of the ‘temporary’ accommodation they’ve been allocated after being ‘temporarily’ evacuated from their homes in Kursk for the last six months.
Also by the surviving North Korean troops who have ‘temporarily’ fled the battlefield in Kursk.
Also by the residents of Krasnodar, Bryansk, Volgograd, Astrakhan, etc., etc., who film Ukrainian-manufactured drones and Ukrainian-manufactured missiles setting Russian oil refineries, terminals and gas-processing plants aflame night after night.
Also by the Russian business community now enjoying ‘temporary’ central bank interest rates of 21%.
Also by the Russian front-line troops currently posting videos of donkeys trudging through the snow to replace their lost motor transport. And by those Russian troops currently retreating south of Pokrovsk, a city whose imminent fall the gullible online Putin community has been confidently predicting for weeks.
– I bet Putin feels very silly now that Russia has grown by several million people and moved its borders west?
It’s possible he feels like Adolf did when Germany grew by several million people and moved its borders east. This is jolly nice, Germany has won the war. There’s Moscow just over there, and Leningrad just over there. What could go wrong?
If Trump ups support for Ukraine and puts proper sanctions on Russia (and anyone who supports them), then Russia is fucked. Isolated Russia vs western backed Ukraine, is fucked. That’s why I’m saying Russia hasn’t won; its gains are not in the bag. It’s not over yet. If Trump throws in the towel and forces a settlement on Ukraine that formalises Russia’s gains – that’s when Russia has won.
If you can read Trump you have better tea leaves than me. But we probably have less than a week to find out, ‘cos the 22nd is coming up fast . . .
“How is it that the same people who keep telling us the Russians are a busted flush also keep telling us that if we don’t stop him in Ukraine he’ll be in Kent next week?”
Like Spud, it depends which day of the week it is. Its Monday today so the line is ‘The Russians are heading for the Chunnel!!’ Maybe tomorrow will be ‘Russia is down to its last Lada, send the Ukrainians more cash!!’
@bloke in spain – “I’ve been wondering what Trump is actually trying to achieve here.”
If we assume that dropping support for Ukraine is intended to cause the likely effects, then it would seem that the USA has tired of being the world’s only superpower and decided to give up that role by giving up its position as influencer of wars. Maybe it thinks Russia is so weak it can be disregarded (the logical purpose of supporting Ukraine was not some principled stance against invasion, but as a way of bleeding Russia dry while taking negligible losses). Maybe Trump thinks Russia is now so weak that Europe should be able to cope alone and does not fancy paying for any support. While that might be true, it disregards the value in the USA being seen to stand up for countries it has backed, leading China to think that it can safely take Taiwan. It also ignores the risk that a Europe string enough to not need the USA might be a lot less friendly to the USA in the long term.
Or maybe Trump thinks that it’s bad to let Russia get too weak as that leaves a power vacuum for China to step into. That would be a mistake as China is almost certainly already powerful enough to take Russia easily if it cared to, and is far more likely to use commercial advantage to get Russian support.
Or maybe it’s all just random bluster.
. . . cos the 22nd is coming up fast . . .
24th, of course. :eyeroll:
Otto – Of course there is also the late Gen Mike Jackson, who when ordered to surround the Russian contingent at Pristina told Gen Wesley Clark “Shove it up your arse, gitfeatures.” Or something like that. My memory is not what it was…
Hopefully British army officers in 2025 are as wise as Michael Jackson and James Blunt were in 1999. But Russia Derangement Syndrome wasn’t a thing in them days, although Blur were.
CD – Ukraine on the other hand is having manpower problems, desertion problems, equipment problems, munition problems.
A woman suicide bombed herself outside a UAF recruiting centre the other day. The press is working overtime to try to convince people like PJF it was all Putler’s doing, naturally, but I’ve also seen the very many other videos of Ukrainians fighting military recruiters in the streets.
It’s a shite situation and I’m amazed the Ukrainian government has lasted this far.
Paul – can I clarify something first? When I point out that Russia has won the war, that’s not a value judgement, not me bragging about the Crystal Palace score or summat.
News of Russia’s victory is going to be warmly greeted by the hundreds of thousands of Russian refugees currently complaining about the quality of the ‘temporary’ accommodation they’ve been allocated after being ‘temporarily’ evacuated from their homes in Kursk for the last six months.
No doubt. Do you think it’ll matter?
Also by the surviving North Korean troops who have ‘temporarily’ fled the battlefield in Kursk.
The North Koreans nobody has seen – to the point it’s a standing joke among Ukrainian troops? Yet are the subject of lots of entertaining stories, despite no actual evidence? Mmmkay. It’s possible I’m more sceptical of this story because I’ve seen how difficult it can be for the army to organise things in peacetime and among people who all speak the same language. Cmon buddy. Holy Kuwaiti incubators, Paulman!
Your other points – yes, many things can be simultaneously true alongside the fact Russia won this war. I still think Russia looks like a shite place to live, and Putin is a bad man, if that helps any.
PJF – It’s possible he feels like Adolf did when Germany grew by several million people and moved its borders east. This is jolly nice, Germany has won the war. There’s Moscow just over there, and Leningrad just over there. What could go wrong?
You bastard. Always teasing me about WW2 convos. I practically lived through WW Bloody Two. I was mostly raised by my grandparents, and it’s the only thing they ever talked about. Then my grandad would introduce me to other old men, who would tell me about how much they hate the Japanese, and why. Bloody inventive, those Japs.
So, who do you think you are kidding, Mr PJF?
You’ve pinned the tail on the wrong end of the Hitler. It’s Ukraine that’s found itself in eerie echoes of German idealism. For the past two years it’s all been Model for them, and like Generalfeldmarschall Walter Model, they’ve been tenacious and persistent defenders.
But you can’t win a war defensively.
The Neo Kurk Offensive is just rubbing the comparisons in our noses. Yet again, a spectacular concentration of modern military hardware and elite troops has been thrown against the Russians at Kursk. To what strategic effects? It’s like pottery.
If Trump ups support for Ukraine and puts proper sanctions on Russia (and anyone who supports them), then Russia is fucked. Isolated Russia vs western backed Ukraine, is fucked. That’s why I’m saying Russia hasn’t won; its gains are not in the bag. It’s not over yet. If Trump throws in the towel and forces a settlement on Ukraine that formalises Russia’s gains – that’s when Russia has won.
Mate. This is around a million Ukrainian casualties and several hundred billions of pounds worth of military and financial aid into the game. The sanctions from Hell (Swindon) have been in place for 3 years. There’s nowhere left to escalate to, except Silly Scary Funny Mushroom Cloud Time.
That cost, at the bottom of the sea? Time to leave it be. Bar’s shut, etc.
Yes, crystallising a loss is painful, but no more Mykolas need to die in a lonely field for this.
If you can read Trump you have better tea leaves than me. But we probably have less than a week to find out, ‘cos the 22nd is coming up fast . . .
I have been communing with the Trumpwave quite heavily since the White Swan Event of his missing a
CIAhaha actually we don’t know anything at all about the shooter bullet.I can now feel the MAGA flowing through me like the wolf’s cry to the blue corn moon, and it is telling me that whatever happens next, Trump’s gonna fix it all soon.
Trump’s coming around to put it back the way it ought to be.
PS – and apologies for non-Steve content fans and to our host if I’m using up too many electrons. I aim for brevity, just as Werner von Braun aimed for the stars, but – y’know – London.
PJF – you inadvertently got me thinking about my grandparents. It’s true to say I shared most/all of their values and cultural assumptions and for the most part still do. The Jesuits were right.
And, candidly, one was a sense of quiet – but very deep, never doubt it – patriotism. They might have hated Them Bastard Tories, but they loved this country and so do I. I’m mentioning this because I don’t see anything like it amongst young people in general these days. There are exceptions, but it’s not the universal shared assumption it used to be. I sense a lack of strong identity, and perhaps the (they/them) fake identities are compensation in part.
But I do think people want to be proud of Britain again, and anybody who can tap into that in a positive, generous way can win Big Prizes. (Not Tommy Robinson)
– A woman suicide bombed herself outside a UAF recruiting centre the other day.
That’s what the Russians say, so that’s what Steve parrots. Most go, “don’t know” but Steve knows.
– It’s a shite situation and I’m amazed the Ukrainian government has lasted this far.
Yes, it’s amazing. Hundreds of thousands under arms having been brutally pressganged by Victoria Nuland’s Nazi mates, and the big insurrection happens in – Russia! Yeah, I’m sure Yevgeny just wanted to tell Putin directly how great things were going at the front.
– You’ve pinned the tail on the wrong end of the Hitler.
No, I think I made the point pretty well. It’s not over until it’s over, now matter how progressed things seem. I’ve said before this war won’t be won on the battlefield but in the corridors of Washington and Moscow. The Ukrainians are still up for it but it doesn’t matter if Trump wants a piece of paper saying, “Peace in Our Time”.
– But you can’t win a war defensively.
Tell it to the Russians circa 1812.
– Yet again, a spectacular concentration of modern military hardware and elite troops has been thrown against the Russians at Kursk.
Except this time it’s the Russians throwing everything. They’ve split their gliding bomb force such that they can no longer advance at Pokrovsk. It’s not me that thinks the Kursk occupation is strategically important, it’s the Russians; they’re pouring blood and treasure into it. The Soviet victory flags flown by the latest lot to be wiped out were a stylish flourish.
– This is around a million Ukrainian casualties and several hundred billions of pounds worth of military and financial aid into the game.
It’ll be 10 million Ukrainian casualties next week. Russia will say and Steve will loyally parrot. Monetarily, it’s an incredibly cheap war for the west. But will Trump cash in and see it through to victory?
– The sanctions from Hell . . . have been in place for 3 years.
They’re pretend sanctions (even the Poles are still buying Russian energy). For some reason the US wants the festering, drunken pykies to remain being a threat to civilisation.
– Yes, crystallising a loss is painful, but no more Mykolas need to die in a lonely field for this.
But they’re willing to regardless of your faux concern. If they fight the Russians now they won’t have to fight for them later against the next poor country that’s always been a part of Russia and is shelling their noble Russian minority as we speak.
‘Bboy – No, the point of nuclear deterrence is that we *don’t* die in a flash fire. Dying means losing. We’d prefer the other guy to die or nobody to be killed’
Yes Steve, the bluff is that they won’t have a go at us because we’ll blow them to hell. The deterrence is the mutual annihilation.
Since the Yanks aren’t prepared to back you up, you need to be prepared to commit mutual suicide. Since I don’t believe the Poles’d want the Russkies to fuck ’em again, I’d argue that they’re the ones to rely upon. But the Germans, Romanians, Serbs, Latvians, Finns etc would provide a good back up.
Thus if the Russians and Poles committed mutual suicide, the Germans and the rest would swarm into the radioactive Russian desert. I suspect the prospect of this’d so piss off the Russkies that they’d decide not to commit mutual suicide after all.
Of course I’m sure Puke would be happy to point out that I’m wrong!!
“How is it that the same people who keep telling us the Russians are a busted flush also keep telling us that if we don’t stop him in Ukraine he’ll be in Kent next week?”
That sums up my cynicism as well.
PJF – That’s what the Russians say, so that’s what Steve parrots. Most go, “don’t know” but Steve knows.
Yes, I do know a woman suicide bombed herself outside a UAF recruiting centre. Nobody is disputing that, except you apparently.
the big insurrection happens in – Russia!
Member I told you it would be contained in 24 hours, but you didn’t want to believe me?
Grr, Russia!
Russia will say and Steve will loyally parrot
Thought-terminating cliche.
They’re pretend sanctions (even the Poles are still buying Russian energy). For some reason the US wants the festering, drunken pykies to remain being a threat to civilisation.
“It was a stab in the back, Hans!”
But they’re willing to regardless of your faux concern
I have more genuine concern for Ukrainian lives than you, and the rest of the Commando Comics Russia Hating Warspunkers club put together. One of the most absurd aspects of this war is how it has convinced bloodthirsty low-information civilians that supporting murder and death in a foreign country makes them the Goodies.
No, Ukrainians aren’t willing to keep dying for this, that’s why they have to kidnap men off the streets. That’s why millions of them are refugees.
Bboy – Thus if the Russians and Poles committed mutual suicide, the Germans and the rest would swarm into the radioactive Russian desert.
How about we don’t commit suicide, and say we did?
Just to offer an alternative observation on Russia’s effortless triumph over the West…
As Pyrrhus described his triumphant smashing of the evil Romans at Asculum, “one more such victory and we are lost”.
Except it can’t even be called a victory yet: for instance having thrown massive meat waves at Pokrovsk, the Russians have not only failed so far to take it but are being driven back in disorder (using the same terms for both sides, anyway – if the Russians taking one field at the cost of a few hundred troops[1], is supposed to be a stunning victory, then their being pushed back from Pischane is equally a Ukranian triumph of truly epic, war-winning proportions?)
The notion that they were “tying down Ukraniain forces there” fell over when the Russians tried to re-enact Enemy at the Gates in the Kursk oblast (after the North Koreans who were definitely never there, left), sending a headlong charge of AFVs and infantry (with red flags proudly flying) across open ground that was mined and pre-registered for artillery fire… and were promptly wiped out in high-definition colour video.
And the cost to those of us outside Ukraine?
Lives, zero.
Military losses, zero.
We sent money and LIFEX hardware (quite a bit of it, in the “cheaper to gift it than scrap it” category).
Still, I’m sure that with enough vodka and Krokodil, Russia’s situation today – compared with January 2022 – looks like a spectacular improvement.
Protesting that “Ukraine has not driven Russia back to the Moscow ring road therefore they’ve lost!” misses the very small point that Russia’s ‘effortlessly easy’ three-day Special Military Operation is now into its third year of cripplingly expensive stalemate. Five years ago, there was serious near-term concern about “little green men followed by the 20th Guards Tank Army” going into the Baltic States after their successful seizure of Crimea and the Donetsk; now, that’s “a risk… once Russia manages to recover from its less-than-entirely successful excursion in Ukraine”.
The Ukraniains have bought us time: cynically, it’s now up to our elected leaders to decide how to squander it.
[1] It’s hard to escape the mental image of the briefings in the Kremlin…
PUTIN: Now let’s talk about something more jolly, shall we? Look, this is the amount of Ukraine we’ve captured this month. Erm… what is the actual scale of this map, Gerasimov?
GERASIMOV: One-to-one, Mr President.
PUTIN: I beg your pardon?
GERASIMOV: The map is actually life-size, sir. But it’s superbly detailed! Look, look, there’s a little worm.
PUTIN: Oh, yes. So the actual amount of land we’ve taken is?
GERASIMOV: Excuse me… Seventeen square feet, Mr President.
Jason – that’s a lot of cope.
You even brought up the 3 Days To Kiev meme, well done.
The Ukraniains have bought us time:
Lol
And there we have it:
From the contract for the reconstruction of Ukraine: “The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties”
Tim’s right there’s no rare earths to speak of, but basically 50% of what Ukraine has got will have been “liberated” by Putin for Trump to claim. His sudden enthusiasm for a deal is just for the money – and screw what happens in Europe next.
Zelensky needs friends in Europe right now, because he’s about to be carved up.
As for the contradiction between Russia on it’s last legs (it is) and the threat to Kent… well duh. If you broker a nice peace deal where everyone has to stop wiping out Russian people and resources, and there’s a nice friendly reconstruction deal then Russia has every expectation of doing what they did in Crimea… wait a while and then take a little more land. And a bit more. And a bit more. Russia is sufficiently screwed that the only way to keep the country running is to take resources from healthier neighbours by force.
It’s not as if there isn’t clear precedence for this happening.
Steve,
Not me who’s “coping” – where is the Black Sea Fleet these days? It seems to be either hiding with pride, or emulating the action of the submarine… defeated by a nation without a navy.
Three years ago Russians really did have their troops all the way up to the Great Gates of Kyiv. The elite, invincible Russian paratroops were seizing Hostomel Airport. How well did Russia manage to turn that immediate success into a quick, easy victory? Did they even hold onto their initial gains?
Does Russia control more, or less, of Ukraine than they did in March 2022? Simple question, easily answered…
– Does Russia control more, or less, of Ukraine than they did in March 2022? Simple question, easily answered…
Sadly Jason, the answer doesn’t matter if Trump gives it all away.
Jason – Not me who’s “coping”
You just wrote several paragraphs trying to imply they have somehow lost the war, suggested the war cost us little (it has cost us trillions so far), and then – clown nose back on – segued to implying the risibly weak and easily defeated Russian Menace is still menacing us, somehow, but Ukraine “bought us time”.
0800 – COME – ON – BUDDY
You see, this is the kind of RDS doublethink I’m talking about:
We sent money and LIFEX hardware (quite a bit of it, in the “cheaper to gift it than scrap it” category).
For the last 3 years, we’ve been breathlessly and continually informed that the West’s “world class”, “game changing” Storm Shadows, artillery pieces, Challenger 2’s, Leopards, HIMARS, Bayraktars, F-16s, and other wunderwaffen were going to defeat Russia. The Telegraph is a cottage industry unto itself of retired army officer confident bluffers shilling this very message.
But they didn’t change the game, so now *clown nose off* that was just a pile of obsolete shit we sent to Ukraine, heh I bet Putin feels silly now…
where is the Black Sea Fleet these days?
Serious question: who gives a fuck? Was the Russian navy keeping you awake at night, or something? Do you think about Russian seamen often?
Does Russia control more, or less, of Ukraine than they did in March 2022? Simple question, easily answered…
Zelensky should try that one in negotiations. “ACTUALLY, Putler, you control slightly less of Ukraine than you did in March 22. Guess you better give us Crimea back and kill yourself. Game over, chuds. :-D”
Dilbert Man was right, it’s Two Movies. And the one you’re watching includes North Korean ninjas and all sorts of other crazy shit.
BIS,
“I’ve been wondering what Trump is actually trying to achieve here.”
I mostly view Trump as a bullshit salesman. It’s all image and promises, and some people believe him, either viewing him as a saviour or as a future Fuhrer. I mostly view it as hollow noise.
I mean we all know that the British govt is sanctioning the British public, but I didn’t realise that Ukraine was also sanctioning us indirectly by not allowing gas transport across its territory to Slovakia and onwards.
And all that messing around with the conscription age being 25 and sending international teams around the world – Ukraine isn’t taking this seriously enough.
Feck ’em – let them agree a partition roughly along the current stalemate line.
Aw but international law and the 1993 borders. Pre-war, Ukraine couldn’t come up with a system of local referenda, or devolving powers on language rights. International law isn’t proper law and the big settlements captured by Russia are mainly Russian speaking and show no sign of wanting to go back or engaging in partisan fighting.
So Putin wins – who really cares if the people get the best outcome starting from here.
– You just wrote several paragraphs trying to imply they have somehow lost the war . . .
It looked to me like he was countering your colourful suggestion that Russia has won the war.
So Putin wins – who really cares if the people get the best outcome starting from here.
Firstly, the word ‘if’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Secondly, people asked the same question when Russia annexed Crimea a decade ago. The answer to “who cares” is we all should because it’s fairly obvious that Russia has no intention to stop until it’s got the whole place.
And the bigger picture is that this changes America from “Leaders of the Free World” to “bent copper on the take”. It’s OK to be a little bit criminal so long as Officer Trump gets his cut.
China is watching this conflict very closely, because they want Taiwan – and that matters a whole lot more than Ukraine. About 85% of the world’s chips are manufactured there, from secure phone network devices through to your washing machine. The West is screwed if China invades, and they’ve been running Naval exercises in the last few months.
So, Xi would love to see Putin given free reign to “take back” old Russia. He’d love to see the West divided. He’d love to see a bent copper in charge of America, too stupid to know when things are going south and happy to look the other way if it doesn’t immediately hurt his back pocket.
If we accept that Ukraine was “slightly Russian anyway”, Xi will remind everyone that China has always ‘owned’ Taiwan, and things could turn out pretty nasty. It’s an interesting fact that the major chip manufacturing plants that we all rely on have all been fitted with explosive charges designed to permanently destroy any capabilities in the event of an invasion.
So… it’s no longer “who cares about one of the largest food producing areas in Europe?”, it’s “Do you realise how bad this could get?”.
– China is watching this conflict very closely, because they want Taiwan . . .
If Trump throws Ukraine under the bus (still if, if only just) then Taiwan should quickly and quietly make a capitulation deal with Xi (including removing any alleged tech factory explosives). There’s no need for them to become the next pile of bloody rubble abandoned by America.
If Russia is kaput, why do we need to worry about them invading anywhere else such as the Baltic States? Why are the European parts of NATO being told that they must spend more money on defence against the Russian hordes (the ones who have just been totally vanquished in Ukraine)?
Come on, it can’t be both. Either Russia is down to its last T34 dragged out of a museum, and reduced to going to war in Ladas, OR its got lots of spiffy weapons in reserve that Uncle Vlad is just aching to let loose on Eastern Europe. But not both.
Can all the Russophobes pick and argument and stick to it please?
AndyT,
“China is watching this conflict very closely, because they want Taiwan – and that matters a whole lot more than Ukraine. About 85% of the world’s chips are manufactured there, from secure phone network devices through to your washing machine. The West is screwed if China invades, and they’ve been running Naval exercises in the last few months.”
No, about 85% of the most advance chip fabrication (7nm and below) is in Taiwan. Overall, Taiwan has less than 50% of all chip fabrication.
Lets say they invade. The people at TSMC take hammers to all the equipment and all the hard drives so that it’s just worthless junk to the Chinese and get on boats to Japan. Then in Japan, Korea, or maybe the USA, they just reassemble their team and build new fabrication plants. Chip prices would sky rocket for a few years, especially on the more advanced chips. Then we’d get the supply back.
And China gets economically utterly fucked as every western company pulls manufacturing out of China.
Is Xi really this stupid? He gets a bit more land to grow rice and sugar in exchange for losing trillons of exports? Especially as the SMIC are already making 7nm chips for Huawei.
Not me who’s “coping” – where is the Black Sea Fleet these days? It seems to be either hiding with pride, or emulating the action of the submarine… defeated by a nation without a navy.
Let’s for the sake of argument, assume that to be true. It may well be, I haven’t been following the Black Sea aspect of the fighting as closely.
So a country using just missiles and drones has sunk or forced the retreat of a fleet of 50 odd combat vessels.
Yet we’re spunking billions on a couple of aircraft carriers…
As soon as a conflict starts against any near peer advesary, they’ll be at the bottom of the ocean.
Maybe the Black Sea Fleet isn’t doing major operations because the Russians don’t have much left for it to do? As you point out, Ukraine didn’t have much, if any, of a Navy.
I imagine they’re floating around, making sure nobody sends a massive boat load of weapons through the North Sea
North Sea?
Black sea…
Then in Japan, Korea, or maybe the USA, they just reassemble their team and build new fabrication plants. Chip prices would sky rocket for a few years, especially on the more advanced chips. Then we’d get the supply back
There’s no “just” about it.
Current estimates are around ten to fifteen years to resume capacity. If you know enough to know the difference between 7nm chips and larger process nodes, you’ll also know the lead time (and cost) for just one factory.
From the West’s perspective, that’s a lifetime. From China’s point of view, it’s part of the long term plan.
Is Xi really this stupid?
China has changed quite significantly over the last few years. They’re playing a different game. It’s not a question of stupid, it’s a question of priorities that are nothing like the West’s.
“So a country using just missiles and drones has sunk or forced the retreat of a fleet of 50 odd combat vessels.
Yet we’re spunking billions on a couple of aircraft carriers…
As soon as a conflict starts against any near peer advesary, they’ll be at the bottom of the ocean.”
True, I can see carriers – perhaps not yet, but soon enough – going the way of battleships and battlecruisers.
And yet, and yet – against non-peer opponents they’re marvellous. Sure, we can argue about whether we should have done peacekeeping in SL and Liberia or not. But, we did and it was done v well indeed. Boats able to put Marines ashore – which is, sorta, like a carrier, a bit – are necessary for that.
We might even – as we always did – suggest that the Navy should be able to deal with peer and non-peer enemies. A few gunboats to defeat France, proper submarines for the Rooskies?
“They’re playing a different game. It’s not a question of stupid, it’s a question of priorities that are nothing like the West’s.”
Well, yes, it is also possible to be stupid by having the wrong priorities. As many a drill rapper waving a knife around has found out…..
Interesting article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung arguing that Putin has got on f the things he’s always been after, a meeting with POTUS over the heads of Europe. breaking up NATO and even the EU is on of his long term goal and this is a step in that direction.
AndyT,
“China has changed quite significantly over the last few years. They’re playing a different game. It’s not a question of stupid, it’s a question of priorities that are nothing like the West’s.”
And what are their priorities? Turning the Chinese people back to being peasant farmers? What’s the impact of China losing $1.5tn of their $3.5tn in exports? How many jobs go at Huawei, Foxconn, OnePlus and all the support companies when no-one in Japan or the USA will buy those names, when Apple refuses to have any “Made in China” products? It would be economic suicide to invade Taiwan and for what? To get a little island with some fairly crap agricultural land?
“Well, yes, it is also possible to be stupid by having the wrong priorities. As many a drill rapper waving a knife around has found out…..”
For sure, but just because they’re stupid by our standards, doesn’t mean that they won’t do whatever those priorities dictate, and feel entirely justified doing so. That’s the point – there’s a bunch of Oxbridge/Harvard educated politics students telling everyone what the sensible thing for China to do is, and they are continually shocked when something entirely different happens.
“Oh no, he shouldn’t have stabbed me, that’s a stupid thing to do… why am I bleeding?”
– I can see carriers – perhaps not yet, but soon enough – going the way of battleships and battlecruisers.
Aircraft+carriers were a double whammy in that they made the battleships highly vulnerable and did the battleship’s job way better; removed and replaced. Although carriers quickly turned out to also be highly vulnerable to other carriers (and subs), they could still do the battleship’s job if they survived. A new technology might remove the carrier from the battle but there doesn’t seem to be anything on the cards to replace its function.
To combat sea drones, all ships are going to have to be bristled with machine and human guided gatlings that can depress to low elevations. Flying drones as seen above the fields of Ukraine are probably not as much of a threat since they can’t do enough damage to a large vessel. Warhead and range requirements will make unmanned aircraft so big that they can already be dealt with.
It would be economic suicide to invade Taiwan and for what? To get a little island with some fairly crap agricultural land?
China is very, very sore that it is behind the West in technology. What better way to level the playing field than taking away the crown jewels of chip making? They’ve been building Western dependency on their output for years – everything from rare earths, solar panels and batteries through to steel – and have massive gold reserves.
They’re also pivoting massively to be inward looking, not Western aligned. When you have a population larger than Europe, Russia and America combined you can do that. They don’t want Apple phones, and Foxconn is barely a blip on the map. What will they do if we stop buying phones from them? Laugh like drains and carry on building their internal market and expertise.
By the way, the Russians have rejected the idea of peacekeeping troops from NATO countries, so as things stand our forces are saved from Starmer’s urge to be eversoimportant.
As a bonus, the European peacekeeper role was apparently a strong aspect of the Trump plan. So my hope that Pooty will be too stupid to take Trump’s offer still remains alive. Just.
AndyT,
“China is very, very sore that it is behind the West in technology. What better way to level the playing field than taking away the crown jewels of chip making? They’ve been building Western dependency on their output for years – everything from rare earths, solar panels and batteries through to steel – and have massive gold reserves.”
What “crown jewels”? We can build new fabs.
“They’re also pivoting massively to be inward looking, not Western aligned. When you have a population larger than Europe, Russia and America combined you can do that. They don’t want Apple phones, and Foxconn is barely a blip on the map. What will they do if we stop buying phones from them? Laugh like drains and carry on building their internal market and expertise.”
So why bother sucking Apple’s cock right now? Just boot them out of the country if $1tn doesn’t matter.
What “crown jewels”? We can build new fabs.
You clearly haven’t been paying attention. Just TSMC’s fabs in Taiwan would cost around $300 billion to build from scratch – ignoring all the infrastructure around them and the logistics of setting up a new site – and take around five to ten years to come on line – longer if you’re trying to do it all at once. There is a reason for their stock valuation. And a reason why the stock market twitches when there’s a minor earthquake in the region.
A full rebuild would be roughly equivalent to the entire US federal energy budget for a decade.
Europe is already well aware of the huge systemic risk this poses, and started trying to get a new Fab built in Germany three years ago. The current timeline (expected to extend) puts initial commissioning in 2028.
This isn’t a tractor factory.
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