Chinese “kill switches” have been found hidden in American solar farms, prompting calls for Ed Miliband to halt the rollout of renewables.
On Thursday, the Energy Secretary was urged to impose an “immediate pause” on his green energy blitz to review whether UK solar plants are also at risk.
The components found in the US included cellular radios capable of switching off the equipment remotely, raising serious concerns about grid security, according to Reuters.
They were found inside power inverters manufactured by unnamed Chinese companies.
Seriously? This is not a plant by US manufacturers of competing equipment? Well, probably not, given that there are none, are there?
Anyone got more on this? What, really, is the story here?
Well any purported Chinese “kill switch” would have its work cut out! The kill switch of sunset is pretty damned effective, particularly in winter at these latitudes (please, no bollocks about “smart” grids and thousands of miles of cables from the sahara).
Somebody cynical could postulate that this is a desperate attempt to backtrack on the lunacy while trying to save face.
But then there is millibrain-maxihissyfit.
A UK government spokesman said: “We would never let anything get in the way of our national security“.
Recent events in North London suggest we should add Ukrainian pyromaniacs to the ever-growing list of non-threats. Must admit I didn’t see that one coming.
I stand with Ukraine.
“They were found inside power inverters manufactured by unnamed Chinese companies.”
Why wouldn’t you name them?
“One source told Reuters that compromising such equipment would give Beijing the ability to inflict blackouts on the West, claiming it would create “a built-in way to physically destroy the grid”.”
“source”. Why wouldn’t someone name themselves in this situation?
“Andrew Bowie, the shadow energy minister, on Thursday said the “worrying revelations” should spark serious concern for Mr Miliband and called for an urgent investigation.”
Bowie gets what he wants from this.
“The European Solar Manufacturing Council estimates that more than 200 gigawatts (GW) of European solar power capacity relies on inverters made in China – the equivalent of 200 nuclear power plants.
“This means Europe has effectively surrendered remote control of a vast portion of its electricity infrastructure,” said Christoph Podewils, the industry group’s secretary general.”
And so do some European lobbyists who want their thing.
“Chinese-made inverters in the US were switched off remotely in November, Reuters said, prompting a row between a Texas-based company and its supplier, Zhejiang-based Deye.
It is not clear whether that incident was related to the discovery of hidden parts and there was no suggestion of wrongdoing by Deye.
The US department of energy was aware of both issues but had not previously disclosed them publicly.
A spokesman said the revelations did not necessarily suggest “malicious intent”, but added: “It is critical for those procuring to have a full understanding of the capabilities of the products received.””
Right so when someone says “found” they mean they were part of the product specification as this is a known thing from a previous incident
And as the previous incident had a “no suggestion of wrongdoing”, here’s my guess on what the situation is: these are supplied on a lease contract by the Chinese company. You get the inverter with a 3 year support contract. At the end of that, you pay up or you don’t. If you don’t pay, they call up the inverter and turn it off.
Total non-story unless you’re worried about the fact that the Chinese can turn the solar off. But then, the whole cui bono thing happens. Why would China want to fuck up solar for the people who spent trillions of pounds/dollars on them?
In a case where it came to a shooting war, the ability to totally f*** up the opponents electrical grid would be worth a hell of a lot. And unless I am completely out of touch, leasing something like inverters in a permanent installation would be unusual, no ? Unless of course you expect to replace them frequently anyway. Is this real, quite likely it is, but who really knows. Politicians are talking about it and that is enough to make me a tad suspicious to be honest…
Medium-sized solar farms, typically ranging from 1 to 50 MW in capacity, are normally remotely operated using monitoring systems and communication networks. Platforms like SMA Sunny Portal, SolarEdge Monitoring, or proprietary software aggregate data for analysis and visualization. These platforms provide dashboards for performance tracking, fault alerts, and historical data analysis.
Operators can access them from anywhere using “secure” logins. Data is transmitted via cellular networks (4G/5G), satellite, or dedicated fiber-optic lines to a central dashboard so you should not be surprised to find cellular network technology embedded in the invertors even if that connectivity option is not used in larger installs that aggregate communication over a SCADA network.
Total non-story unless you’re worried about the fact that the Chinese can turn the solar off.
I’d be worried about that. Especially as there is a pattern of similar dodgy practices in Chinese tech.
Yeah, yeah I know, 2TK is more of a threat to us than Chairman Pooh. Thing is, the chairbear and his evil old chums are nonetheless a threat. Remember that the CCP cunts have starved and murdered 50 million of their own within living memory. And they don’t like us anywhere near that much.
Zerohedge had this story yesterday morning. I thought it likely, but didn’t take it too seriously.
It reckons that the devices were found during ‘security inpections’ of the solar panels and mentions that a plant in Texas was remotely switched off last year.
I thought it likely because they might have an innocent purpose ( eg monitoring performance or disconnecting a panel for maintenance from an office ) but leave it open for hacking.
Fundamentally, this is a network security issue: it’s called “securing the control plane”: it’s something everyone needs to do. Of course, the reason people don’t buy Huawei routers these days is often because they feel the risk of backdoors in software and hardware makes this impossible.
Based on the Spanish experience, you can see how this would work: a panel array “accidentally” goes offline and in a grid running mostly on renewables and will little inertia, everything collapses.
It’s quite plausible for public sector geniuses to do this sort of financial engineering if the lease contract comes out of a different budget from the installation contract.
WB and Andyf have it nailed between them. If you don’t want the remote access or lease contract it’s cheaper to leave the cellular radio installed than design a new system.
There’ll be something in the spec that allows the owner to disable the radio but as they refuse to tell us the manufacturer we can’t look up the spec.
Marius,
“Thing is, the chairbear and his evil old chums are nonetheless a threat.”
China is going to go to war with the UK over, what? Are we restarting the opium trade?
Despite the view in some comments that this is yet another of Mencken’s Hobgoblins, there is a real risk here. Chinese behaviour towards the rest of the world, particularly the West, doesn’t really induce any sort of trust. We’ve become very dependent on them for hardware and, increasingly, software for economic reasons, discounting any security issues.
Supposed lease arrangements for capex-opex games is yet another of those ‘economic imperatives’ that brings future misery.
TG,
“Despite the view in some comments that this is yet another of Mencken’s Hobgoblins, there is a real risk here. Chinese behaviour towards the rest of the world, particularly the West, doesn’t really induce any sort of trust. We’ve become very dependent on them for hardware and, increasingly, software for economic reasons, discounting any security issues.”
When did the West last have a dust-up with China? From what I can see, the chargé d’affaires was injured in a bit of a fracas in 1967. So on that basis, we should ban all Argentine Malbec, in case it’s poisoned, yes?
We don’t ban Argentine Malbec because there’s no-one bribing politicians to support our native wine industry (too small and it’s a struggle to produce red here).
And I’m not saying the Chinese are nice people, but that’s not a bar we set on Russian gas or Saudi oil. We still buy those despite people falling out of buildings.
Also, who gives a fuck about solar? We go to war with China, they turn off the solar panels, so what? We’re not going to be powering bomb making factories on solar. We’d have serious politicians taking over and
teams up in Lancashire fracking long before we went to war.
@WB
The UK may or may not be important for Winnie and chums to care. But if the capability is there, sooner or later somebody will hack it. Maybe not a state actor, but holding the grid to ransom might be a profitable afternoon’s work for somebody suitably skilled. Or the idiots at Just Stop Oil might think it’s a great idea to use a few solar farms to put the grid into a wobble because that’s the level of logic they work at.
Like smart meters, the problem is that the capability is there regardless of whether the manufacturer intends to use it or not.
@Western Bloke – May 16, 2025 at 9:38 am
Also, who gives a fuck about solar? We go to war with China, they turn off the solar panels, so what? We’re not going to be powering bomb making factories on solar.
It’s not the ‘solar supply’ that’s the problem. ISTR that the ‘Spanish crash’ was caused by 2GW of ‘renewables’ suddenly dropping offline and destabilising the grid. Suddenly switching off say, 5GW of solar could easily cause a cascade failure and shut everything down. Even if they’re not planning on invading, just the economic disruption would be pretty dire.
This has all the makings of a manufactured story produced to a news grid: the questions are who, why, and why now?
In significant pieces of electrical kit one would expect remote monitoring ability of both the environment and the function: every one of our 19″ cabinets of servers has just such monitoring capability, regardless of the servers themselves or what they are doing. Each server similarly has an embedded ‘control’ CPU, for power cycling, for instance.
How this remote capability is accessed will depend on site and scale, but embedded mobile modems are commonplace. And if the site doesn’t need them, well they are just unused. No point going to the expense of different stock items, or removable components.
It’s called the IoT: the Internet of (Evil) Things. The UK mobile phone industry connects tens of millions of the things.
And yes, of course, whatever the original intent, they can be hacked or trapdoored. But this is nothing new. News stories on this go back 10 years or more.
So why this story, today?
Matt,
“The UK may or may not be important for Winnie and chums to care. But if the capability is there, sooner or later somebody will hack it. Maybe not a state actor, but holding the grid to ransom might be a profitable afternoon’s work for somebody suitably skilled. Or the idiots at Just Stop Oil might think it’s a great idea to use a few solar farms to put the grid into a wobble because that’s the level of logic they work at.”
So, how would you hack a Raspberry Pi running Linux with no IP server running on it that communicates via cellular to a single server address?
If I wanted to hack anything, this would be the last place I’d go. Hacks are about idiots installing software they shouldn’t, SQL injection attacks, users that use the same password on every system and unpatched software. This would be legendary levels of hacking. And if you could do this, why not just spend your time bug hunting Chrome and earning legit money from Google?
Well there would be wouldnt there.
Firstly becasue they are all likely to be possibly controlled remotely so youd need that
Secondly because there is software in there that needs patching.
And of course if its got a remote connection possibility of course the manufacturer can get in.
I daresay the french could shut down Hinkley point C remotely (if they ever finish building it).
The same applies to all mobile phones, electric cars, fighter aircraft, etc, etc.
Cough – https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/no-the-us-cant-switch-off-the-uks-nuclear-weapons/
Baron,
“It’s not the ‘solar supply’ that’s the problem. ISTR that the ‘Spanish crash’ was caused by 2GW of ‘renewables’ suddenly dropping offline and destabilising the grid. Suddenly switching off say, 5GW of solar could easily cause a cascade failure and shut everything down. Even if they’re not planning on invading, just the economic disruption would be pretty dire.”
Why would China fuck up the UK power supply for a few days? China exports $17bn of products to the UK. Fucking up our power supply would lead to people not wanting things made in China. It would make everyone else wary of anything made in China. Trillions of dollars of exports would be destroyed. Everyone working in Shenzen would go back to subsistence farming. And for what? What is the benefit of this to the Chinese?
Some people are forgetting their history here. The Israelis have done this already, when they lamed the Iranian grid ( Stuxnet ?)
As to why would China do this ?
If they are mad enough to invade Taiwan…
If the economy starts to go tits up and the CCP needs a diversion or a revolutionary situation develops…
It might not be the Chinese themselves but they may sell the know how to someone who means us harm…
It’s no good saying “China is our biggest trading partner, why would they do us harm ?” When you’re playing bowls on Plymouth Hoe and an armada of aircraft carriers appears out of the mist…
Russia, Iran, NorK, China et al simply cannot be trusted. They do not play by our rules.
Kill switches, eh? How adaptable are they….?
(Mr. Plod: that’s a joke!)
China is going to go to war with the UK over, what? Are we restarting the opium trade?
Sending a carrier group to the Indian Ocean/Pacific?
Only guessing, but China probably has about as much interest in fiddling with the solar power system in the UK as the UK has in the power system in China.
For divorced men: buy Salem’s solar – kills witches.
Can we bring in a couple of million more Ukrainians?
Great lads.
Ottokring,
“It’s no good saying “China is our biggest trading partner, why would they do us harm ?” When you’re playing bowls on Plymouth Hoe and an armada of aircraft carriers appears out of the mist…”
How much trade did Britain do with Spain back in the 16th century? About none. And how did you generally get rich in the 16th century? By going to war and taking someone else’s land.
The king used to be the richest person in the country because of all the good agricultural land they owned. It was also worth going to war on another country with an army and killing the other king and taking their land. Fritz Haber and John Deere changed the numbers. You would have to spend a fortune to hire people to go retaking Aquitaine and how much is the land worth today vs all the other things that the people in your land could do? At the same time, you’d fuck up exports of all sorts of products because of a war.
And the Middle East and Russia are a lot like old Kingdoms because their money is nearly all about land, but in this case, gas and oil.
But China’s shifting towards industrialisation more and more. It’s going through what Europe and much of Asia went through.
Aren’t beepers a lot cheaper than cell phones?
>We go to war with China, they turn off the solar panels, so what? We’re not going to be powering bomb making factories on solar
Or they turn them on and off and on and off rapidly over and over, and then the whole grid goes down.
First thing you learn in Security is to stop assuming your adversary will play fair or follow some set of rules of normal behaviour: the whole point is to find gaps between what’s possible and what’s permitted, and take advantage of assumptions that only what’s permitted will be attempted.
@WB
You have a lot of faith in the people operating the control plane. That none of them will leak keys deliberately or accidentally; that none of them will fall for any social engineering or phishing scam, and that they’ll report and fix anything dodgy rather than sweeping it under the carpet.
Would you like to buy this bridge?
Surprised people were surprised about the Ukrainian pyromaniac story. That was always one of the most likely scenarios, particularly given how the possibility was raised (subtly) by the security services. Anti-Israel protestors have previously performed “direct action” demos at Starmer’s home which would be another likely candidate.
I think a lot of people jumped to the conclusion this was related to the anti-migrant protests and was a “far right terrorist attack” – that’s what you might have gauged from the “progressive” press anyway. But what the security services were hinting at early on was pretty clear. Both Russia and Iran have been very active across Europe recruiting people for small-scale disruptive attacks, often via telegram. In Russia’s case the recruits are often Ukrainian or other East European and in Iran’s case often criminal gangs, particularly those with a Kurdish or other Middle Eastern or Ex-Soviet component. This is public knowledge, don’t think the full extent of it has hit the mainstream media yet but if you read the security-focused specialist sites you’ll be aware how large an issue it is.
Ukrainian “lone wolf” attacks, or even ones sponsored by their intelligence apparatus, are a real possibility on Western soil, particularly if a “stabbed in the back by the West” mythos develops. It’s not a secret the HUR intends to take out Russian targets associated with the occupation of Donbas and Crimea in a similar way to how the Israelis hunted down the Black September Organisation and Armenian nationalists post-WW1 performed a string of revenge assassinations against prominent Turks. Some of the those targets are, or likely soon will be back to, living the high life in the West or Dubai. It would not be surprising if Western politicians who are seen to have betrayed Ukraine get added to the list, at least for “unofficial” ops, but that doesn’t make much sense for Starmer right now.
The moment it turned out the suspected perp was Ukrainian, the most likely cause was a Russian or even Iranian led operation, since it fits directly with the modus operandi of dozens of attacks across Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus. (What’s happened to Starmer has particularly strong similarities to recent incidents in Azerbaijan, Israel and the UAE, believed to be conducted by Iran and largely employing ex-Soviet migrants – likely unaware they were acting on Iran’s behalf – while somewhat resembling Iranian-sponsored attacks on Israeli targets in Sweden by Kurdish-led gang members. But other factors are more suggestive of Russian involvement.) This may yet turn out to be an incorrect hypothesis, could well turn out to be an act of lone nutterdom or something else altogether, but it’s understandable why the security services floated the possibility.
There is also, and this is relevant to the story above, a growing risk of eco-terrorism as hardliners within groups like Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil have decided there’s not much point trying to shift public opinion and attacks on infrastructure are more effective. They likely have access to expertise from related zealots in the anti-animal testing movement, who ran a small but potentially deadly terrorist campaign in the past. Attacking a residential address would be a bit out of character for climate campaigners, but do expect attempts to disrupt the grid and transport networks in future.
Since many of these people are dedicated to the “Omnicause” (as you’ll be aware if you’ve heard of Greta’s latest travels… Or indeed, had the misfortune to meet any of these nutters) it’s quite possible they will be offered more serious technical assistance from some overseas “friends”. Which is another reason to be wary of the ease of remote access to critical infrastructure. Also quite disturbing that the ethical argument for going out blowing up pipelines was voiced quite publicly on mainstream broadcast TV recently. We have come a long way from Sinn Fein spokespeople having to be voiced by an actor on the news due to our aversion to hearing someone suggest that blowing things up is a good solution to our problems, really. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/chris-packham-is-it-time-to-break-the-law
Otto,
“Some people are forgetting their history here. The Israelis have done this already, when they lamed the Iranian grid ( Stuxnet ?)”
The Stuxnet attack wasn’t done remotely but by infiltration of the suppliers to the Iranian nuclear agency. Getting into those companies and loading up and propagating via USB drives and the internal networks.
>why would [assumed-rational actor X] do [irrational action Y]? What rational benefit is in it for them?
This was the argument Peter Hitchens made for why Russia would never invade Ukraine. It’s built on the premise that if your interlocutor can’t provide a rational reason why a third party would do a specific irrational thing, that means said third-party can be absolutely relied upon not to do said irrational thing.
I don’t think this premise is valid, as you can use it to show that the invasion of Ukraine, various invasions of Israel, Pearl Harbour, etc. etc. never would have happened.
Maybe the Chinese are intentionally trying to sabotage the reputation of solar power.
So that we don’t collapse our economy with Net Zero and keep buying their high quality manufactured goods instead.
The Oriental is subtle, like Fu Manchu. Ancient Chinese secrets.
Anon – It would not be surprising if Western politicians who are seen to have betrayed Ukraine get added to the list, at least for “unofficial” ops, but that doesn’t make much sense for Starmer right now.
Ukraine only took Pope Francis off their official online “kill list” (“The Mitrovetz”) as a designated “enemy of Ukraine” after he poped his clogs.
Great lads.
Bathroom Moose,
“I don’t think this premise is valid, as you can use it to show that the invasion of Ukraine, various invasions of Israel, Pearl Harbour, etc. etc. never would have happened.”
Pearl Harbor was because of American sanctions and the Japanese desire to expand into South East Asia. It was foolish but there was a rational explanation for it at the time. Same as Adolf going East. The Ostplan wasn’t *that* bonkers in 1938.
Ukraine is rather about the old idea of it being part of Russia, coming from a load of old USSR types. Also, gaining Sevastapol is probably useful.
Israel? Well, good land, sea borders. Most of the recent activity is more about the Iran/Saudi shia/sunni battles and attacking Israel is a propaganda thing by Iran. Which is why most of it is lame.
And you can never say 100% that a thing won’t happen. But it would make no sense for China to shut down our solar array in a way that really doesn’t matter for Russia. They supply Europe with gas and Europe needs that and has few other choices. And no-one outside Russia is buying Ladas anyway.
Israel? Well, good land,
Looked out of the window recently? All media coverage of Israel I have seen in five decades shows a barren wasteland. Not even sand, just rocks. It beggars belief that people want to live there at all, let alone kill other people to live there. Just watch any Biblical epic – it’s a complete moonscape.
@Weastern Bloke
So, how would you hack a Raspberry Pi running Linux with no IP server running on it that communicates via cellular to a single server address?
Tricky. First of all I would use a rogue base station in close proximity to the system so that it would be liable to connect to it in preference to official base stations. By locally jamming its 4G/5G I would hope to get it to default to a 2G connection where my rogue base station could ask for no encryption on the connection and attempt a man in the middle attack. It’s feasible that the “solar” system will routinely attempt to connect to that single server address and if successful open up a command shell that allows remote control. Using my man in the middle access I would snoop the admin credentials, and/or hijack the session and own the “solar” box. If however it did all the real management with a custom API, it would still be possible but need a lot of work to understand and replicate the protocol.
It might even work, though I am years and years out of date doing this sort of stuff. But as you say why bother. I have better things to do with my time.
WB – The Ostplan wasn’t *that* bonkers in 1938.
Yes it was, it was bloody nuts.
Ol Uncy Dolph and the Wehrmacht descended on Eastern Europe like the Mongols or the Sea Peoples. Perhaps the Thirty Years War sometimes rivalled its viciousness, but never its scale.
One thing to want to grab a bit of Johnny F’s land and resources or replace his government with one more to your liking, but rocking up with the intention of mass murdering the locals and exterminating entire septs and clans of the human race is a bit mad.
Germany: world champions of Taking It Too Far.
Ukraine is rather about the old idea of it being part of Russia, coming from a load of old USSR types. Also, gaining Sevastapol is probably useful.
It’s a lot like the Paraguayan War. After the newly minted independent states of Brazil and Paraguay Brexited from European rule, they found themselves with unresolved issues around the borders. (See: the almost accidental creation of the modern Ukrainian state in 1991 and its lucky/unlucky acquisition of large territories full of people who had never thought of themselves as anything other than Russian or possibly Soviet before. Crimea in particular has no real historical connection to Ukrainian national identity, historically more a Galician thing. Crimea was solidly Russian since they nicked it off the Tatars.)
The main problem for Ukraine was that Russia still had their naval base in Sevastopol, and the Russians see that as strategically essential. They could have used that in two ways: leverage, or a threat card.
Anyway, plucky little Paraguay decided, for some reason, to fight the mean bully Kingdom of Brazil, maybe 11 times his size, instead of negotiate. Which was a courageous decision, given the Brazilians expected to negotiate a peaceful solution. The result was that Paraguay permanently got a lot smaller, its population was devastated, and its economy took maybe a century to recover.
@Steve
official online “kill list” (“The Mitrovetz”)
The myrotvorets (Миротво́рець) is not an “official kill list”. If it really was the Ukrainian government’s own official hit list, why would it have included so many serving members of Zelenskyy’s government?
What it is is nasty enough, there’s no need for the exaggeration. There are countries that do publish names of people they want dead – Iran springs to mind, they haven’t wiped clean the Rushdie fatwa for example – so the concept itself isn’t impossible. But the myrotvorets isn’t one other than in pro-Russian propaganda. I know you are unpersuadable on the point, but the history and purpose of the myrotvorets is pretty well documented. The idea that it’s the crowdsourced work of Ukrainian “patriots” and ultra-nationalists is consistent with it featuring Zelenskyy-era figures like Symonenko who are seen as having betrayed Poroshenko, who remains more popular in those circles than the current regime.
Frankly the Ukrainian government would have done themselves a favour in terms of international relations if they’d stamped down on the people producing the list, freedom of speech be damned (and the breaches of personal information on it would have been good reason enough). No doubt that would have fed into the “Zelenskyy the Great Betrayer” narrative, and it has had its uses in counter-intelligence ops, but it should have been spiked. At least the inclusion of Western figures, which was a huge own goal. Anyway, the existence of the kind of people behind myrotvorets is part of my point. However the war ends, there are going to be some very angry Ukrainians out there. Not very nice people, as you point out, but also enough of them who are highly motivated, professionally adept, and internationally connected. If I were a Russian oligarch with substantial economic activity in Donbas or Crimea, or the arms industry more generally, I would steer clear of an early return to my penthouse in Londongrad.
Russia has also been very active across Europe, assassinating dissidents in the UK and Germany, blowing up arms depots (and killing guards) in Eastern Europe, killing a prominent deserter in Spain (anyone remember the helicopter incident?), attempted assassination of a leading industrialist in Germany. Plus various acts of more minor economic sabotage or race-baiting across Europe (hiring Moldovans to put up anti-Semitic graffiti in Paris, that kind of thing). I don’t think anyone should expect Western cities to stop being active areas of operation even if the war in Ukraine comes to a close. Particularly once wealthy Russians start returning, I expect things to heat up, if anything, even if most of the more petty activity gets wound down in the name of resetting relations – plenty of Ukrainians are very up for a post-Munich “Operation Wrath of God” act, whether sanctioned by HUR or entirely freelanced.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention. The President of Paraguay, Francisco Solano Lopez, died at the Battle of Cerro Corá in 1870. He was a courageous if stubborn man. But look at the personal investment in his nation’s cause. Taleb would weep to see such (literal) skin in the game. He may have inflicted South American Flodden on his own country for no real reason other than stubborn pride. But nobody can say he was a poof.
Can you imagine Two Tier leading a cavalry charge into the guns of the foeman? Larks!
Charge of the Shite Brigade.
A lot of people on here are making some very strong assumptions about what the Chinese government is going to look like, think like, and behave like in 10-20 years. I think this is unwise. Xi has been ripping up the political infrastructure and the next power transition will not be able to follow the same model as the previous few. If it had, he’d have been managed out of the door by now. And the transition after whatever comes next is even less predictable, as we don’t know what the new rulebook is going to look like.
We do know the PRC leadership has in the past fallen into extreme ideological capture, even to the point of it being deeply irrational and self-harming. There’s no guarantee that won’t happen again, whether it’s nationalism, militarism, or a comeback of old school Marxism.
Also ought to budget for a non-zero chance of some kind of political disruption or wider breakdown of social order – the track record of authoritarian, managerialist states pulling off multiple generations of peaceful transfer of power isn’t a great one, though I wouldn’t want to bet on the timing of it. In such a scenario, it’s feasible the West will be seen to back one faction over another – which runs the risk of some levers of power being, however temporarily, in the hands of those who by default become anti-Western. If they view Western pressure as a threat to their political, even personal, survival then it would be helpful if there was little they could do to harm us.
At any rate, I’m sceptical of “the Chinese government benefit from trade with us so why would they ever hurt us if it hurts them too?” argument. Given Salt Typhoon etc the possibility of backdoors should not be ruled out. (Anyone who hasn’t heard of “Salt Typhoon” before – you ought to have done. Have no idea why the news media has been so quiet about it. Go look it up.) But “why would China hurt us?” is also somewhat irrelevant to the threat from backdoors. Just as Chinese hackers have made good use of backdoors deliberately put in place by the USA (see previous parentheses), there are plenty of people who would like to harm us who will be capable of using Chinese-installed backdoors.
Anon – But the myrotvorets isn’t one other than in pro-Russian propaganda.
FFS, seriously, my dude?
Don’t be silly, be a smartie. If their (wink wink) totally crowdsourced you guys “kill list” wasn’t run/funded/approved by the FSB they would shut it down and kill the admin. Ukraine is a mafia state run by bad men.
And yes, I’m sure they – or possibly those elusive Russians again! – put Pope Francis on their “not a kill list” as an Enemy of Ukraine because they were hoping people would throw flowers at him.
It all makes sense now.
Russia has also been very active across Europe, assassinating dissidents in the UK and Germany, blowing up arms depots (and killing guards) in Eastern Europe, killing a prominent deserter in Spain (anyone remember the helicopter incident?), attempted assassination of a leading industrialist in Germany. Plus various acts of more minor economic sabotage or race-baiting across Europe (hiring Moldovans to put up anti-Semitic graffiti in Paris, that kind of thing).
Ok, first: the pilot they shot in Spain. He murdered his co-pilot (!) and turned traitor for $500,000. The Russians killed him because that’s the normal thing to do. I know Britain would probably somehow find a way to send traitors benefits in whatever country they fled to, but Vlad sends them bullets.
Second, they probably are doing some arson attacks and sabotage against critical industrial suppliers to the proxy war with Russia, but the fervid anti-Russian propaganda of Western official orifices is not believable. How many agents do you think FSB has, and how competent, funded or motivated do you imagine them to be, irl? Contrariwise, do you even Remember Trump 1.0 and Russia, Russia, Russia? All crap. You’ve just explained why the Russians are responsible for basically everything bad that happens in Europe. “Uh, yes, it was the RUSSIANS who did this antisemitic graffiti in our heavily Muslim ghetto!”
It all makes sense now.
plenty of Ukrainians are very up for a post-Munich “Operation Wrath of God” act, whether sanctioned by HUR or entirely freelanced.
They are, they’re fanatical Nazis with a taste for terrorism, and they will be murdered in return/advance by KGB. None of this is praiseworthy and nobody involved is a Hollywood movie badass. Just murdering, psychotic scumbags, as far as the eye can see.
Re Israel and the Iranian thing, seems there was some further news on that today. For people out of the loop:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/16-year-old-israeli-arrested-for-carrying-out-tasks-on-behalf-of-iranian-agents/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-managing-to-recruit-surprising-number-jewish-israelis-for-spying-ops/
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-832966
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-petah-tikva-resident-suspected-of-spying-for-iran
Note that some of the activities included surveillance of the homes of top-ranking Israeli politicians and passing on photographs and footage.
Oh, and the ex Israeli minister mentioned in those articles who turned out to be an Iranian spy in the previous wave of Iranian espionage? Gonen Segev, who in the late 1990s was minister for …. Energy and Infrastructure.
Mixed up SBU and FSB but YKWIM (bloody acronyms)
anon: and this stuff has been going on a long time – Titan Rain in the 2000s. That was spearfishing for industrial espionage rather than hacking kit but it’s all grist to the mill.
Of course in the 1910s the rationalists told us that war would never break out in Europe again due to the amount of interlocking trade between the potential protagonists………
Missed out on the growth of this thread yesterday but would add:
We’re not talking about China, or the interests of China, still less “the Chinese”, we are talking about the CCP and the only thing it cares about is the CCP. Plus Pooh cares about himself and his personal power. That is all that counts. Doing something that damages the people of China but suits Pooh or the CCP is perfectly acceptable.
Also, it doesn’t have to be ‘war’. The CCP augments its power through bribing, bullying, threats and blackmail. It also loves the long game.
Separately…
they’re fanatical Nazis with a taste for terrorism,
This is Russian propaganda (and projection), pure and simple. Claiming that Ukraine and Russia are moral equivalents is a despicable stance for someone who claims to be a Christian.
Marius,
“We’re not talking about China, or the interests of China, still less “the Chinese”, we are talking about the CCP and the only thing it cares about is the CCP. Plus Pooh cares about himself and his personal power. That is all that counts. Doing something that damages the people of China but suits Pooh or the CCP is perfectly acceptable.”
It’s not that simple. Every dictator has to please the people. Hitler did many things that he didn’t want to just to keep the German people happy. Because if you don’t, you end up like Ceaucescu and the people under you give you the worst Xmas present ever.
The internet and container shipping has changed China to be part of the global economy, an industrialising nation, and you can’t put those back in the box. The disappearance of military dictatorships in South America and Africa isn’t an accident, in the same way that Britain shifting to democracy 100ish years ago wasn’t an accident. Xi can’t turn China back to the country it was under Mao because the technology isn’t what it was in Mao’s day.
>Hitler did many things that he didn’t want to just to keep the German people happy
He wasn’t as interested in keeping the French, Czech, Slovak, or Polish people happy though, was he?
Anyways, you’re falling into the trap of thinking “X is not a rational thing to do because Y, therefore X cannot happen”. Saddam Hussein probably knew that letting Uday indulge in his hobby of dragging women away from their own weddings and having his way with them would probably have eventual reputations, but he didn’t actually put a stop to it.
Bathroom Moose,
“He wasn’t as interested in keeping the French, Czech, Slovak, or Polish people happy though, was he?”
Why would he be? He loved the volk and was their leader, and had few incentives to keep those people happy to benefit the volk.
Hitler existed at a time when Germany was still mostly not an industrialised country. There was some of the north and west that was into trading with other nations, but most of it was still agricultural peasants. And when you have that, and when you’re not trading, you don’t care about fucking up the people next door. You get rich by killing them, enslaving them or driving them off their land and putting your people there instead.
You get the green revolution, and land gets cheaper, food gets cheaper. It ain’t worth invading the Alsace. Better to make Volkswagens, chemicals and Kraftwerk albums.
“Anyways, you’re falling into the trap of thinking “X is not a rational thing to do because Y, therefore X cannot happen”. Saddam Hussein probably knew that letting Uday indulge in his hobby of dragging women away from their own weddings and having his way with them would probably have eventual reputations, but he didn’t actually put a stop to it.””
Iraq and much of the middle east has a pre-industrial culture because so much of the wealth is about the land. So they behave much like Europe did when it was all about land. They form tribes and go fighting each other to get the land. Things are brutal and uncivilised. In a brutal and uncivilised world, you can have the king’s son raping women, as long as the family aren’t too well connected.
Within that culture, it’s OK to go raping other men’s wives. And this had nothing to do with the fall of Saddam Hussein, which was about the actions of the west. Which didn’t end up with some glorious peaceful modern democracy, because the economic incentives haven’t changed. ISIS moving into Iraq was because the hard bastard Sunni leader was removed, so ISIS (Shia) decided to have a pop, see if they could get some oil and some women.
Marius – This is Russian propaganda (and projection), pure and simple. Claiming that Ukraine and Russia are moral equivalents is a despicable stance for someone who claims to be a Christian.
Everything I don’t want to hear is Russian propaganda, simple as.
I’m sorry if I accidentally made it sound like Russia and Ukraine are morally equivalent. Russia and Ukraine are not moral equivalents, the Ukrainian government is worse. Much , much worse. They’re both mafia states, but Ukraine is a mafia state owned by CW foreigners that’s still kidnapping men off the streets to feed to a war they have no plan to win. We could get along fine with Russia, our “ally” Ukraine and their retarded, 19th century style revanchist delusions (REEE! The Kerch Bridge!) are nothing but a liability and sunk cost. I like Ukrainians and Russians but I have no time for either of their bullshit, and they do lie a lot.
Jesus Christ is not a supporter of the Ukraine war and Christians don’t want to get Christian men killed.
Hope that helps x
WB – Hitler existed at a time when Germany was still mostly not an industrialised country.
No, no, no. Germany was handily outproducing Britain in steel before the war. They overtook us in 1890. The embarrassment of German industrial productivity was quite the security challenge for Britain and France, as it directly translates into warmaking capacity (and the German Luxury Fleet that more or less accidentally turned Britain into an enemy of Germany through their miscalculation* of what the Anglos would do in response to Tirpitz wanting some toy battleships to play with).
From 1850 – 1873, German steel production leapt from 200,000 tons per annum with 20,000 men to 79,000 men producing 1.6m tons. Similar exponential growth in coal, railways and shipbuilding.
but most of it was still agricultural peasant
Maybe in 1870, by 1910 Germany was one of the most successful industrial societies on Earth. (That’s how come they were able to fight Britain, France AND Russia for all that time).
*German history is full of tragic outcomes proceeding from the Squareheads’ catastrophic failures to predict how normal people will react. I suspect the entire country has a mild form of autism.
Steve,
“No, no, no. Germany was handily outproducing Britain in steel before the war. They overtook us in 1890. The embarrassment of German industrial productivity was quite the security challenge for Britain and France, as it directly translates into warmaking capacity (and the German Luxury Fleet that more or less accidentally turned Britain into an enemy of Germany through their miscalculation* of what the Anglos would do in response to Tirpitz wanting some toy battleships to play with).”
Germany was industrial in the West. Rhineland/Ruhr/Hamburg etc. But the East and Bavaria were mostly agricultural and poor, and thought in terms of getting more land. Quite the divide culturally, too. Hamburg had the largest Jewish community before the Nazis. Generally tolerant of them.
WB – But the East and Bavaria were mostly agricultural and poor, and thought in terms of getting more land.
Bavarian bucolia wasn’t the cause of Prussian militarism tho. You could correctly say “but the West Country was still mostly agricultural and poor”, and use it to try to explain British foreign policy 1871-1914, but it would be a mistake? And a misrepresentation of Britain at the time.
We went to war with Germany ultimately because they were better at the Industrial Revolution than we were, not because of German yokels. The 20th century style Total State could never have emerged from the peasantry, twas a consequence of mass industry.
WB – I think the idea (iiuyc) that modern technological urbanist capitalism reduces the scope for armed conflict between states sounds like Fukuyama’s Just So stories about the end of history, two countries with McDonald’s not fighting each other etc?
Wet streets and rain causal confusion, sorry.
Industry and technology are, candidly, the means of production of warfare. Ruritanial peasantry, otoh, skews more decentralised, more religious (often conservative and less suscept to radical ideologies), and most importantly from a war producing pov, far less capable of commanding either the resources or institutional power to wage war at scale.
Y’know, it’s why the Confederates and Nazis and Imperial Japanese lost, to the almighty electrified, automatic, hydrodynamic, greased lightning unleashed potential of the American working class, and the British working class, and the Commonwealth and Soviet working class. Collectively, their hammer-wielding biceps were bigger than puny Germany and Japan plus meme allies such as Italy and Rumania. That’s why they built more tanks, planes and ships and won the war?
. . . so ISIS (Shia) . . .
Allahu bleedin’ akbar.
Steve,
“WB – I think the idea (iiuyc) that modern technological urbanist capitalism reduces the scope for armed conflict between states sounds like Fukuyama’s Just So stories about the end of history, two countries with McDonald’s not fighting each other etc?”
It’s not only a repeatedly observable pattern, that improved agriculture and more industrialisation reduces war and improves democracy and human rights. If you look at when parts of the world stopped fighting and became democratic, you can see this over and over. It works for Switzerland in the mid-19th century, Britain in the early 20th century, Portugal and Korea in the latter part of the 20th century.
You increase agricultural yields of land, you don’t need as much land to feed everyone, so the price of land falls (relatively). At which point, is it worth paying and arming a load of blokes to go and nick it? No, it isn’t. And people would rather do other things than kill people. Blood is a big expense and all that.
And the more you trade with other countries, the less likely you are to go shooting them. Does Germany want to invade the Alsace and piss the French off so they stop buying Mercedes? That’s pretty obviously no.
This doesn’t seem like Harvard Scholar stuff to me, just about how average blokes behave. If Frederich Merz decided to invade Austria, people would think he’d gone mental today. But plenty of Germans wore a uniform and marched into Vienna. Plenty of pretty women married SS men. Most Nazis today are not exactly a great catch. And these people aren’t so genetically differently to Germans today, so what changed?
Steve,
“Industry and technology are, candidly, the means of production of warfare. Ruritanial peasantry, otoh, skews more decentralised, more religious (often conservative and less suscept to radical ideologies), and most importantly from a war producing pov, far less capable of commanding either the resources or institutional power to wage war at scale.”
I’m not talking about winning wars, I’m talking about incentives to go to war. It’s to take land to get richer. Whether that was England taking Aquitaine for agricultural land, or Iraq invading Kuwait for oil under the land. The USA had a big enough military after WW2 that it could have taken Mexico, so why didn’t it? Well mostly because it wasn’t worth it. Also why no-one bothered much with Switzerland for centuries and why the Romans never went much north of York – it’s shit land.
Seems that a fair number of people here think industrialised countries won’t go to war and China won’t be a war for us because we buy too much of their crap.
Meanwhile the US is in Thucydides Trap. China is rising.
The US sources a lot of it’s industrial requirements and pharmaceutical requirements from China. Yet Trump just slapped large tariffs on China…
That isn’t really in the US interests, yet he still has.
The US also has some dark, v stormy economic waters ahead. War is a good way for the government to distract and gives them something to blame the economic problems on. “,of course shits expensive, don’t you know there’s a war on?”
Think we won’t go to war with China? Really? You think our politicos army just going to hop-to at the command of the Americans like we did in Afghanistan and Iraq?
Wars aren’t just about economic things. There are other reasons.
Henry VIII started wars in France because he wanted to be feared on the battlefield. Politicians start wars to try and stay in power.
WW2 was arguably caused by economic problems. But luckily we don’t have any of those today that those in power need to distract us from to stay in power…
WB – It’s not only a repeatedly observable pattern, that improved agriculture and more industrialisation reduces war and improves democracy and human rights. If you look at when parts of the world stopped fighting and became democratic, you can see this over and over. It works for Switzerland in the mid-19th century, Britain in the early 20th century, Portugal and Korea in the latter part of the 20th century.
I’m not sure where your timescales come from (by the early 20th century, Britain was already a declining industrial power, significantly improved agricultural yields was a process that kicked off in the 17th century, and had tailed off by the mid 19th.
Pendantry, but in history the sequence matters when you’re imputing causation.
And the more you trade with other countries, the less likely you are to go shooting them.
Russia and Ukraine were major trading partners. India and Pakistan? Identical looking people who hate each other.
Does Germany want to invade the Alsace and piss the French off so they stop buying Mercedes? That’s pretty obviously no.
But they’re supplying Taurus missiles and sanctions to piss Russia off so they stop buying Mercedes, and also cut themselves off from their main energy supplier over the fate of the Donbass. Was that rational, and has it increased the chances for peace in Europe? (Burgers?)
Perhaps you’re looking at an historical anomaly – the relative peace and security enjoyed by the luckier people in Western countries post 1945. Which is long after improved agriculture and industrialisation gave mankind the means and opportunity to prosecute the bloodiest wars, and create the most nightmarishly tyrannical regimes, in all of recorded history so far? T’weren’t the peasantry organising for Communism. Sam Gamgee would never vote Labour.
The USA had a big enough military after WW2 that it could have taken Mexico, so why didn’t it? Well mostly because it wasn’t worth it.
The US has spent trillions of dollars on dozens of wars across four continents since 1991. It wasn’t worth it, but watch this drive.
But plenty of Germans wore a uniform and marched into Vienna. Plenty of pretty women married SS men. Most Nazis today are not exactly a great catch. And these people aren’t so genetically differently to Germans today, so what changed?
Genetically, but have you seen Germans these days? The peevish, pencil-necked dorks, fancy boys, and silly women who rule them? Genetically, I suppose a chihuahua is almost indistinguishable from a wulf, nein? But I get the feeling Steiner isn’t coming to dinner.
Chernyy Drakon gets it. Judge Holden:
It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner. That is the way it was and will be. That way and not some other way
Steve,
“I’m not sure where your timescales come from (by the early 20th century, Britain was already a declining industrial power, significantly improved agricultural yields was a process that kicked off in the 17th century, and had tailed off by the mid 19th.”
That’s not what the data says. UK wheat yields per hectare quadrupled between 1900 and 2000. Inorganic fertilisers led to a massive increase in yields. That’s going to have an effect on how much agricultural land is worth.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cereal-yields-uk
Fictional characters can say all sorts of things but there’s far less war and famine today than probably any time in history.
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