But this couild also apply to that of others:
British gilts are the most undervalued financial asset on the planet. You would hardly know it from our compulsion to talk the country down but the UK is today one of the least indebted states in the rich world.
There’s contrarian and then there’s contrarian.
His point is that corporate and household debt is down – which it is. But that doesn’t make gilts a bargain….
“She should raise income tax by 2p, raise fuel duty and abolish the triple lock on pensions.”
Well, the first two are a bad idea, and the last one isn’t going to happen for a very long time.
Britain is on autopilot to Fuckedville. And it’s not about the politicians. It’s that so many people are still living in the fantasy world of wasting money, running up a tab. On the one hand, you have the army of cunts that cost the country money and will vote hard to keep their phony baloney jobs, but there isn’t an equal force voting to get their money back so they can have a BMW. There is no political force out there that covers that. The Conservatives used to be, but they’re now just slightly more sensible socialists. Reform are trying to cover all sorts of bases and they lack any cohesive philosophy about this. Lee Anderson is not quoting Thatcher, Hayek or PJ O’Rourke. He’s an unreconstructed NUM member and Labour councillor. Farage has talked about appealing to the rail unions, a group of people that any sensible person would send to the Phantom Zone.
It is going to take the full horrors of socialism, pain and the deep scars of it, to change this country. Part of the reason for German post-war success was poverty, bombed cities, the mass rape of German women by the Red Army and the Holocaust. “Hey, maybe socialism isn’t a great idea”. Someone in their 20s when that happens is going to be an anti-socialist until they’re in the ground, their kids will be surrounded by adults telling them the same. It’ll be normalised. Germany’s getting fucked now because those people, and even their kids are disappearing, and the influence gets watered down. Shutting down the nuclear power is the moment. People in Germany are the unscarred people.
It’s why, while I have some money in UK and Europe, I have more in Korea and Asia. The Chinese people aren’t going off to yooni to study needlework. They’re working their balls out. They aren’t spending £900m on archaeology before building a rail line or worrying about the bats in the way, just bulldoze through it all. Other than Bruce Wayne, who really gives a fuck about bats? Korean girls in K-Pop bands aren’t narcissists complaining about objectification and body image like British girl groups. They know their job is to stay thin and look pretty and pretend to be happy. Korea still exists in that pre-Diana era of being serious and stiff upper lip instead of being children about things. “Oh, my life is so terrible, getting a massive house, kids in the best schools, £2K a year to spend on lingerie”. And the country didn’t say “shut up you mad narcissist, your hubby’s looking after you fine while shagging his girlfriend”.
And if you start pointing out the £900m spend on archaeology for HS2, most people don’t even flinch. “Well it’s important to preserve our history, to learn where we came from”. Firstly, what happened before the industrial revolution is pretty much fucking irrelevant. it’s a nice hobby if you want to study it. Secondly, we already pretty much know this shit. All that money is doing is finding more bits of broken pottery to add to the warehouses of broken pottery that already exists.
None of this is going to change until the average guy in the street gets burned, and scarred from those burns and realises that no, we can’t afford all this fucking nonsense.
Western Bloke: I fear that you are 100% correct
And normally AEP is quite sane but on occasion he goes off the reservation in a big way.
Rare that a pre Steve thread is so comprehensively won but I think the entry by Western Bloke ought to be imprinted through some Clockwork Orange style therapy on every single Left wing personality in the country.
The fact that the UK may be less fucked in terms of indebtedness than the likes of the US in the long run still means we are fucked. We have an army of takers (for want of a better term) – people with their hands firmly stuck in the cookie jar and who expect someone else to pay for it. And this mind virus seems to extend across all areas of the political spectrum. Even on a pretty right wing Forum like ‘The Conservative Woman’ we have columnists saying that their adult children will need taxpayer support running into the millions for the rest of their natural life. Newsflash – there is no money and if you think ISIS (who will likely arise given economic dislocation and deomgraphics) will help you out you are in for a very rude awakening.
Sadly I can’t demur from the assessment of Western Bloke – I don’t know quite how bad things will have to get to force a return to sanity but it may not be in my lifetime. The omens look distinctly unpromising – that much is clear.
@WB:
You’re right about the UK, though not so sure about Korea’s bright future. Isn’t the gap between the Leftiness of the women and the Rightiness of the men the greatest in South Korea? And unsurprisingly the marriage and birth rate is correspondingly internationally low?
I’d say South Korea is on the same road as the West – the feminisation of politics and society. Once that happens the country is on a road to ruin.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/10/1243819495/elections-reveal-a-growing-gender-divide-across-south-korea
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/04/the-fight-over-gender-equality-in-south-korea?lang=en
“And normally AEP is quite sane but on occasion he goes off the reservation in a big way.”
I used to think so but he’s become increasingly deranged in the last few years. And its become obvious that his writing is entirely by numbers. In fact I’m beginning to wonder if his columns are generated by AI, they are a sort of parody of themselves nowadays. Plus he’s drunk the Eco-Cool-Aid so throws in a column about all that every now and then as well. If he really is writing these pieces, I’d be worried about his pension – it appears to be entirely invested in Green funds and government debt……..
Emil,
The USA is the same now. It used to be a load of bootstrappy immigrants from Britain, Germany, Italy. They’re all children now. Either stupid democrats that want nonsense like defunding the police. Or Republicans that want to square the contradictory ideas of cheap shit and highly paid American jobs doing it. It’s idiotic cakeism all round.
Look at the Green party. Set aside the fucking idiocy of their policies. They want to “save the planet”. So, they want lots of choo-choos everywhere. But you draw up plans that include knocking down a wood to build a choo-choo and they’re up in arms. That’s childish, and people vote for them. You know, kids learn this stuff. You get pocket money and that’s either a bag of sweets or Pokemon cards. You can’t have both. If you want trains, you’re going to have to knock things down to make that happen. You have to make trade-offs. And if you ever meet people who like the greens, they’re all like this. They will simultaneous be pro-environment AND want barely used rural buses to ferry Doris and Elsie around, where putting them in a taxi or getting Ocado to deliver would be cheaper and greener.
Jim,
“You’re right about the UK, though not so sure about Korea’s bright future. Isn’t the gap between the Leftiness of the women and the Rightiness of the men the greatest in South Korea? And unsurprisingly the marriage and birth rate is correspondingly internationally low?”
Thanks for the links. Maybe time to flog off my Korean ETF and look into South America, maybe.
” want barely used rural buses to ferry Doris and Elsie around, where putting them in a taxi or getting Ocado to deliver would be cheaper and greener.”
I think there’s a fallacy in your argument (which is often stated as ‘A Government service costs X and is used by a small number Y people, ergo we could give them all a free Z and still save money’), which is that if you are giving out free Zs the number of people wanting one will no longer be Y, but 3/4/5Y instead.
If Doris and Elsie get given free taxis/Ocado deliveries, then a lot of their mates who aren’t that keen on standing at bus stops in the rain will suddenly decide they want them too. And there won’t be any savings, in fact it would cost many times more than subsidised bus routes, and be just another thing that can’t be cut because of the electoral consequences.
Incidentally AEPs column appears to have been rather badly timed, as it was published on the day the inflation rate ticked up again, and the 10 year gilt yield jumped by about 0.1% on fears the economy is hitting stagflation. And today the unemployment rate jumps to a 4 year high, ie approaching pandemic levels. he may be right, and the sunlit uplands are just around the corner, but it all looks pretty dull and overcast to me.
Jim,
“I think there’s a fallacy in your argument (which is often stated as ‘A Government service costs X and is used by a small number Y people, ergo we could give them all a free Z and still save money’), which is that if you are giving out free Zs the number of people wanting one will no longer be Y, but 3/4/5Y instead.”
No no no. I’m not saying put on a free taxi service for Elsie and Doris. I’m saying that you cut the buses and maybe give a bit more cash to people and they figure out what works for them. Which might be Ocado, moving to town, driving, sharing a taxi.
The best solution for rural areas is probably taxi sharing. Elsie and Doris want to go to town and put something up on the local Facebook group and Joan gets in touch, and they split the cab fare 3 ways. It’s about £15 for an Uber from my house to Marlborough, which is a tenner return each but that’s almost certainly less than the fare + subsidy for most buses. About the only busy buses are the ones that take people to work and school and back again.
Can’t really add much to WB’s comprehensive summary.
“… the UK is today one of the least indebted states in the rich world.”
We’re rich? Doesn’t feel like it.
It’s all happened before, you know; Edmund Burke predicted the detail pretty successfully.
https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/bastille-day-should-be-a-reminder-to-americans-about-the-dangers-of-debt-crisis/
Thank you AEP, we’re saved!
While the government debt to GDP % keeps growing , household debt has reduced!
What this means in practice is that the government is increasingly making spending decisions on our behalf, so less for us to worry about.
Home ownership remains lower than before, but more social housing is right around the corner. And home ownership means responsibility, and all sort of headaches.
At some point surely, increasing tax rates will lead to increasing tax revenues. AEP proposes 2% on income tax, but is that sufficiently bold? By hoarding money in savings, as the electorate seems increasingly keen to do, the government is being denied the funds it needs. Give the money to Big Ange and Mad Ed and Let Debt Set You Free.
The best solution for rural areas is probably taxi sharing. Elsie and Doris want to go to town and put something up on the local Facebook group and Joan gets in touch, and they split the cab fare 3 ways.
The sensible answer is what they do in a lot of developing countries. The bus service goes from A to B & return. The driver waits at A until he reckons he has sufficient customers to be worthwhile & sets off for dropping off & picking up on the way. At B he does the same. There’s no time table but the driver, through experience, will match supply to demand. My amiga was in Brasil last week. Some of the family live in tiny pueblos out in the campo. That’s how she got to visit them. People know roughly when they can get a bus, they might just have to wait a while.. Sufficient for their needs.
” I’m not saying put on a free taxi service for Elsie and Doris. I’m saying that you cut the buses and maybe give a bit more cash to people and they figure out what works for them. Which might be Ocado, moving to town, driving, sharing a taxi.”
If you cut the bus subsidy, the cash saved will amount to about 10p/wk for all the Elsies and Dorises in that area. Most of whom don’t use the bus anyway because they have their own cars. Bus subsidies are kind of means tested – you’ve got to be pretty poor and desperate to have to rely on them. So they are quite targeted at those in need. You don’t end up giving extra cash to people who can afford their own cars, or if too old to drive have sufficient income to afford taxis and Ocado deliveries anyway. Yes there will be some old codgers who use their bus passes who don’t need to out of a desire to ‘get their money’s worth’ but most people can’t be arsed with standing at bus stops, and lugging their shopping around, even if its free, so will not use them.
Brilliant by WB: worth two Tour De France wins on the same day
I loved square the contradictory ideas of cheap shit and highly paid American jobs doing it
BIS,
“People know roughly when they can get a bus, they might just have to wait a while.. Sufficient for their needs.”
There is lots of travel where you have to do it, but when exactly doesn’t matter that much. Like Wizz Air have the worst punctuality of any airline, but it doesn’t matter. It’s mostly used for things like Romanians living in the UK taking the kids to see Granny for a fortnight. You don’t really give that much of a toss if it’s 2 hours late. It’s not like flying to see a client in Zurich for a meeting.
WB, mañana. If Railway Time isn’t a fundamental part of your culture you have a different view of punctuality. Sitting waiting for some form of transport to show up is little hardship if all you’d be doing otherwise is sitting on the stoop.
@Western Bloke – “The best solution for rural areas is probably taxi sharing.”
It would be, but it has been tried and failed. For example, Lyft started as a ride sharing platform but has ended up as just another taxi service. It is fiercely opposed by ordinary taxis and people who are completely paranoid about their personal security (but are, unfortunately, not seen as such). And it’s not very popular to start with – consider how on a bus people spread themselves out rather than all sit together and how in a taxi you’re forced to be very close to any other passenger.
Norman,
“WB, mañana. If Railway Time isn’t a fundamental part of your culture you have a different view of punctuality. Sitting waiting for some form of transport to show up is little hardship if all you’d be doing otherwise is sitting on the stoop.”
I stopped caring about bus tardiness when Stagecoach created an app that tracks the buses. Because it’s not the bus being late that is the problem. It’s standing in the cold and rain. Bus tracking means I stay in the warm until 10 minutes before ETA and stand waiting for about 5 minutes.
The sort of people that run government transport think “how do we make buses less late” and throw lots of money at it, when an app with some GPS devices costs piss all.
Charles,
“It would be, but it has been tried and failed. For example, Lyft started as a ride sharing platform but has ended up as just another taxi service. It is fiercely opposed by ordinary taxis and people who are completely paranoid about their personal security (but are, unfortunately, not seen as such). And it’s not very popular to start with – consider how on a bus people spread themselves out rather than all sit together and how in a taxi you’re forced to be very close to any other passenger.”
The UK has a regulatory problem that means you can’t charge people for a lift without pieces of paper (although there is Liftshare, where someone puts some petrol in or whatever).
Ordinary taxis don’t have to take part if they don’t want to. Go fucking starve if you don’t like it.
And sure, I’d always rather have a double seat on a bus, but it won’t stop me riding a bus if not.
“The UK has a regulatory problem that means you can’t charge people for a lift without pieces of paper (although there is Liftshare, where someone puts some petrol in or whatever).”
The trouble is that if you lift all restrictions on who can offer transport for money every pervert and wannabe rapist will be driving around on a Friday and Saturday night pretending to be a taxi service, looking for drunk women to assault. I mean taxi driver is still a very common choice of job for sexual predators even with all the regulations that exist today. Make it a free for all and every second cabbie would be a rapist on the lookout.
This is why libertarianism can’t work – it assumes everyone has good intent. If they all did then getting rid of regulations would be fine. Unfortunately in the real world the predatory just take advantage of the extra freedom to prey on the vulnerable.