On reflection I think it’s a ballsy move to boast to the world about how good the American military can be …… under the right President.
Whilst being condemned as unlawful by many it was very very impressive. A lot of foreign 3rd world leaders will now be careful not to piss off Trump. And Putin is probably wishing he played it that way at the start of his “special police operation” in Ukraine.
It’s now a matter of what happens next. Depending on how the US plays it and the Venezuelan people react, it could be seen as proof that America is great again, or it could turn into a PR disaster.
Whisteling out of windows in the dark is one thing, but marching and giving interviews at this stage? Silly people. Probably soon to be silly dead people.
I couldn’t really give two shits about legality. There is no Big Book of International Law. Power is what matters. But what’s the point? The second in command just replaces Maduro. And why? What’s Venezuela done to the USA?
Is Trump serious about running Venezuela? They’re going to invade, and either face lots of deaths fighting that, or that everyone lets you win, then uses guerrilla tactics.
America has this bad habit of dipping its toes into wars, and not playing to win.
My conscious lifetime has been marked by a list of American military triumphs:
Bay of Pigs
Vietnam
The deaths of the US Marines in Beirut.
The helicopter raid on Iran.
Iraq II
Afghanistan and the debacle in Kabul.
Libya.
This one is different, at least to start with – done exceptionally well, the preparations kept secret, no casualties on the US side; perhaps – I hope – only modest casualties on the Venezuelan side. What they do from here I don’t know. Does even King Donald the Great know what to do next? Maybe he does. He seems to be routinely under-rated by his political enemies.
I’m still reflecting on his bomber raid on Iran. I have decided that it was probably partly acquiesced in by Iran. Trump says “All I want to do is bugger up your centrifuges. I don’t want to kill your soldiers: evacuate them before I bomb. I also don’t want clouds of radioactive particles blowing about – get your uranium out of there before I bomb.” And, lo!, they did and, lo!, he did.
Interested, I’ve always seen Vietnam as just one battle in the war over wider South East Asia domination. Malaysia, Indonesia were wins, Vietnam was a loss, Korea was (and unfortunately continues to be) a draw. The overall campaign though was generally a win, yes.
There’ve been people helping them do. I suspect Trumps actions may have prevented a rather nasty & protracted internal conflict. Maybe part of his incentives.
FSB promised that the fix was in with the mayors and population, but they had stolen the money which was supposed to be used for bribes. Allegedly. AND all-arms tactics and IFVs desgned to deal with 100 metre range bazookas/RPGs didn’t work with 3000m ATGMs.
Exactly, but interviews (from a safe haven far far away) are cheap. Now it’s time for her to walk the walk.
Sanctions are slow and hurt the general population. Removing a corrupt and unpopular leader is quicker and cleaner as long as the dominant force, be it internal or external, does not usher in (or as has happened far too frequently in modern times inadvertently allow power to be seized by) an even worse regime.
Anyway, the lady has a chance to justify her somewhat surprising prize retrospectively by enthusiastically welcoming yesterdays events – basically telling the rest of the world to STFU and allow her resource-rich country a chance to be rebuilt.
From what I’ve heard from Venezuelans, both the diaspora & in-country, the general mood is celebratory & cautious optimism. There’s been a few sullen groups standing around in Caracas with pro-Maduro placards no doubt the BBC cameras have been feasting on. At a Brasil/VZ frontier post the VZ border guards were looking a bit disorientated. When asked they just gave shrugs.
You wouldn’t think that after watching the BBC website coverage… One speech from the clearly pro-Madura VP, 5 vox-pops of those decrying Trump’s actions and a single token bloke saying it might not be so bad after all. Standard BBC bias doubtless still applies.
It certainly isn’t what I’m hearing. And the Venezuelans I know are VZ’s poor. Why they’re here. And VZ’s majority. Also the ones most likely to be Maduro supporters, one would suspect.
Of course. Maduro promised to Give Them Stuff. He has demonstrably made their lives worse, so they’re up for the next one to Give Them Stuff and the Orange Man has plenty.
They’ll get Stuff all right, but mostly not what they expect. If they stick with it they’ll find they end up with a lot more Stuff, better, and more to their personal tastes. Argentina will point the way. I bet Millei’s happy.
*If* this guy is to be believed, and from what we’ve seen so far it seems plausible, the US weren’t impressed with her and that why they’re negotiating with Rodriguez:
Delcy Rodríguez and the core of the regime’s leadership are negotiating with the United States as we speak. This is not a sudden pivot. It is the result of a conclusion reached in Washington over months: the U.S. does not believe that María Corina Machado and the opposition have the operational capacity to seize power in Venezuela because they do not control, or meaningfully fracture, the military. If they did, power would have shifted immediately after the 2024 presidential election. It did not.
For a long period, U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio, were in constant communication with Machado and her team. They were asked repeatedly for proof of a concrete plan, not just to win power symbolically, but to retain it in practice: chain of command, military alignment, institutional control, day-after governance. The answers were consistently evasive, justified by security concerns, but never substantiated. At that point, from the U.S. government’s perspective, the opposition ceased to look like a viable transition mechanism and began to look like a political wager with no enforcement arm.
The plan now on the table is for Delcy Rodríguez to stabilize the country with U.S. backing and then call for general elections. This is not framed as an endorsement of the regime, but as a containment and transition strategy. Washington is explicit about one thing: this is not a partnership of equals. The United States is running the process, the lines are being managed through Rubio, and the leverage is entirely asymmetric. Delcy is the instrument, not the center of gravity.
U.S. officials also assess that Delcy’s harsh public rhetoric today was aimed inward, at the chavista base, not outward. That messaging is understood as domestic signaling. Nevertheless, as of now, negotiations with the United States are ongoing as we speak.
With Venezuelan’s you’re dealing with a very different culture from Iraq. Venezuelans are almost indistinguishable from the Spanish or Portuguese. The same good points the same bad. A distinct lack religious fanatics. I’d imagine the average Yank is more religious than the average Venzuelan. Particularly as US religion has a nasty streak of Protestant Puritanism running through it.
You’re dealing with very different economics. Venezuela has similar economics to other non-democratic countries like Iran and Russia. Over 70% of Venezuelan exports are oil, crops etc. Spain is closer to 20%.
Bongo
9 months ago
Good article. A simple point well made. You expect the Sage to think it’s about securing oil supplies, but a BBC guy has said as much implying the US gets an advantage from this.
It’s amazing how the anti-capitalist left gets such bad heroes:
more consideration for Black Lives in the UK – convicted US criminal George Floyd
International Law should be upheld – election fraudster tyrant Maduro
Many others
“It’s all about oil” is about as convincing as “it’s about drug cartels”.
The latter is the internal legal fig leaf to cover the grubby but necessary business of regime change. Of the various strategic factors, oil is undoubtedly one. But it’s mostly about third party access and control of that oil.
The grab operation was tactically impressive but strategically? They’ve removed the fig leaf. Does the US have any legal business in the country now?
I definitely think Trump blundered in saying that the US will run Venezuela. That’s not even in his power at the moment, and saying so might push it further away. Another unforced error, in my opinion.
Japan was a modern industrialised country when occupied by the US. Iraq and Afghanistan are backward rural shitholes. Venuzuela is loads of rural peasants living in city shanties.
In the 1990s when I worked in Ven, it was a thriving modern country. The people in the cities were sophisticated, the women are beautiful and there was a large middle class. Violence was dreadful, but then so is it in Chicago.
The problem was corruption amongst the political class, which meant that Chavez at first seemed a good change. That optimism didn’t last very long at all.
I get Tim’s basic point. But DJ Trump spent a fair whack of the press conference talking about getting the oil pumping. Pretty sure his idea is to give favourable terms (probably even need guarantees) to US oil companies who’ll get their cut before anyone else. And if they weren’t paid full whack when nationalisation was done, then they’ll be a hell of a lot to pay up on top of the re-investment costs i assume before the income flow is directed to the populace.
Sure if it’s the quickest way Venezuela GDP gets back to where it should be then who can say its a bad thing? Still there were other options before now, China seemed interested in investment which i’m sure the military hawks were sure to mention heavily to those whose approval they required. Why else mention hemispheres and monroe doctrine?
And when Chavistas start shooting at yanks, how long is that going to last? Are America going to send in thousands of troops, like they did in Afghanistan?
dunno. My guess is that instead of invasion they just say to whoever is in charge do this this and this. And if you don’t we’ll come and get you too. Might work.
Jonathan
9 months ago
Very good piece Tim, thanks.
Excavator Man
9 months ago
That’s just legitimised our raid to snatch Anne Sacoolas, killing anyone who gets in the way, hasn’t it?
Are you listening, Kier?
Bloke in South Dorset
9 months ago
“For those who say this is all like Iraq and so on, all about that stealing the oil. Have you noted that US individuals and companies pay the market price for Iraqi oil? Same price as everyone else?”
Isn’t the advantage to the oil companies? If US companies get the right to extract on favourable terms then that’s an advantage, even (especially) if the end users are paying full price.
Happy to be shown to be wrong on this, but I don’t think the end-users paying market price deals with the accusation.
Perhaps that is dealt with by the other point in Tim’s article: that the US is now a net exporter of oil. By bringing unsanctioned Venezuelan oil to the general market, the price of all oil on that general market, including the oil currently sold by US companies, will fall and thereby reduce the profits of those US oil companies.
Venezuelan oil is going to be flowing freely for quite some time. When Chavez put his mates in charge of the state oil company they basically trashed the golden egg. There was no maintenance and the Venezuelan engineers who were apparently some of the best in the world all fled.
The reason it needs the US companies is for their capital and technical ability and there probably aren’t many other countries with the capital and expertise to bring them back on stream.
Mostly China, and India did – not sure if they still do in the same volume.
There’s a lot of heavy and sour about, way more than sweet and light.
One other large source; Urals, along with others. As per Tim’s article, refineries need to be built to handle the lower viscosity and the higher sulfur. So, Citgo own a couple in the Gulf of ‘Murica, and Rosneft own 50% of Citgo courtesy of the Chavez days. Whether Rosneft really do own that slug would be some what debatable, ‘cos Sanctions.
But they definitely own some within Russia.
Which do seem to be not that distant from a free fire combat zone.
Interested
9 months ago
Interesting piece, Tim.
I don’t think it was the only reason – I think there’s something in the drugs and guns and gangs and thousands of deaths stuff, I think there’s a lot of pour encourager les autres (if the Danes think he’s crazy, maybe they’ll sell him Greenland?), plus anyone with the US military is going to want to have a play with the train set now and then.
But I suggest they wanted the oil.
I should say, I don’t think he’s crazy – it’s just what a lot of bien pensant wankers think, and I imagine the Danish government is firmly entrenched in that group.
I don’t personally mind invading places for oil – we need it, it’s human nature, and real life.
If the Yanks didn’t do it the Chinese were going to, one way or another, so who cares. I’d rather our side – to a point – had it than the other lot.
Because the reduction in US purchases has been because the US decided that it didn’t want to buy this stuff from oppressive, idiot, dictators like Maduro. If it was about the oil then the US would just have changed its own domestic law. They didn’t, therefore it’s not about the oil.
‘Buy’. I’ll return to that in a moment.
But if it ‘didn’t want to buy this stuff from oppressive, idiot, dictators like Maduro’, why would it change the law to allow that to happen?
Why not change Maduro?
In other words, this says not much about whether they wanted the oil, it says more about realpolitik and an incredibly busy president working against much of his own government taking a bit of time to get round to things (IMO).
After all, as you point out,
We should also note that the oil fields in Venezuela actually owned/managed by Chevron, a US company, have still been allowed to ship to the US and elsewhere under US law.
This seems somewhat inconsistent with your point above.
The United States has, domestically and in law, limited the amount of Venezuelan oil that US citizens or companies may buy. So the US doesn’t need to invade Venezuela – or kidnap/arrest the President and his wife – in order to be able to buy Venezuelan oil. It can just change domestic law and allow US citizens and companies to buy Venezuelan oil.
Anyway, yadda yadda…. but what if Trump actually wants to sell Venezuelan oil, not buy it?
Arguably, it has just ‘changed Venezuelan domestic law and allowed US companies to sell Venezuelan oil.’
Or the EU impose a goververnment on Poland, Ireland, Greece, Italy… oh wait….
Norman
9 months ago
I’ve read the whole thread and come to the conclusion that Trump is cauterising a wound. The Monroe Doctrine is not just to keep Commies with nukes out of South America. Or at least, it isn’t, now.
If you allow South America to continue to be a wound of failed states, with Russian and Chinese encouragement it’s also a wound that suppurates narcotics, immigrants and crime, and acts as a justification for USAid and all that entails. You address those symptoms by cauterising the wound. Make those countries affluent again, like Argentina before Peron, and there will be too much domestic opportunity and wealth in those places for the populations to bother being Mafiosi.
That Trump and his pals may benefit personally from this is a side-effect, not the goal. Were it the goal he’d be doing private deals with narcos. I see no evidence that he is.
I see S. America as the future. It has enormous resources. Its population is growing. They’re becoming increasingly well educated. My experience, they’re becoming better educated than Europeans. They’re industrious & don’t expect to be pampered. They’re finally shaking off the influence of the Catholic church. They aren’t deluged by Muslim & other 3rd world immigration. They have the potential Europe had more than a century ago.
And being someone who puts their money where their mouth is, I now own a house in Brasil & expect to be fucking off from Europe in due course. Bye. Thanks for all the fish.
Elections are due October. Unless Lula pulls a TTK. The Brasilians I know who were enthusiastic when he was elected are disillusioned now. So they’re very likely to be seeing a change of government
Charles
9 months ago
I’m not convinced. Are you saying that if Venezuela had been a country with no oil – maybe relying on bananas or beef for exports – Trump would have acted the same?
But maybe it’s not about oil. Maybe it’s about freedom as Maduro was elected by a subverted election, so the USA are going to set the Venezuelans free. They’ll be free whether they want it or not.
bobby b
9 months ago
Grab a world map, and remind yourselves where Venezuela is relative to the USA.
If you throw a flat rock really hard and skip it over Cuba, you hit Venezuela.
Maduro has been partying with Iran and China, et al.
On reflection I think it’s a ballsy move to boast to the world about how good the American military can be …… under the right President.
Whilst being condemned as unlawful by many it was very very impressive. A lot of foreign 3rd world leaders will now be careful not to piss off Trump. And Putin is probably wishing he played it that way at the start of his “special police operation” in Ukraine.
It’s now a matter of what happens next. Depending on how the US plays it and the Venezuelan people react, it could be seen as proof that America is great again, or it could turn into a PR disaster.
https://youtu.be/kAhZGLCL7uw?si=mcMspqkK5T5t3ddm
Whisteling out of windows in the dark is one thing, but marching and giving interviews at this stage? Silly people. Probably soon to be silly dead people.
Caracas
I couldn’t really give two shits about legality. There is no Big Book of International Law. Power is what matters. But what’s the point? The second in command just replaces Maduro. And why? What’s Venezuela done to the USA?
Is Trump serious about running Venezuela? They’re going to invade, and either face lots of deaths fighting that, or that everyone lets you win, then uses guerrilla tactics.
America has this bad habit of dipping its toes into wars, and not playing to win.
My conscious lifetime has been marked by a list of American military triumphs:
Bay of Pigs
Vietnam
The deaths of the US Marines in Beirut.
The helicopter raid on Iran.
Iraq II
Afghanistan and the debacle in Kabul.
Libya.
This one is different, at least to start with – done exceptionally well, the preparations kept secret, no casualties on the US side; perhaps – I hope – only modest casualties on the Venezuelan side. What they do from here I don’t know. Does even King Donald the Great know what to do next? Maybe he does. He seems to be routinely under-rated by his political enemies.
I’m still reflecting on his bomber raid on Iran. I have decided that it was probably partly acquiesced in by Iran. Trump says “All I want to do is bugger up your centrifuges. I don’t want to kill your soldiers: evacuate them before I bomb. I also don’t want clouds of radioactive particles blowing about – get your uranium out of there before I bomb.” And, lo!, they did and, lo!, he did.
Vietnam was more of a success than people think. It did halt the spread of Communism is the far east.
Iraq II was great and so was Afghan if you run massive arms companies and you like fraud.
10-4 on Vietnam. We won. American media demanded we get out, anyway. The loss was political, not military.
Interested, I’ve always seen Vietnam as just one battle in the war over wider South East Asia domination. Malaysia, Indonesia were wins, Vietnam was a loss, Korea was (and unfortunately continues to be) a draw. The overall campaign though was generally a win, yes.
But that was a while ago. China, now…
China was the first loss.
Iraq and Afghanistan started great too. Steaming in with shock and awe. The problem is peacekeeping. Where anyone might be a threat.
If the Venezuelans really cared about dealing with Maduro they’d have taken up arms.
“If the British really cared about dealing with Starmer/Labour/NetZero/MuslimRapeGangs/etc. they’d have taken up arms.”
FTFY…
It’s never that easy… and you know it..
People have had plenty of opportunities to join our vote for parties that oppose that
There’ve been people helping them do. I suspect Trumps actions may have prevented a rather nasty & protracted internal conflict. Maybe part of his incentives.
Who’s helping them, rather than just buying oil?
The capture of Saddam Hussein went well. No coalition troop casualties. And, just as important, no Iraqi casualties.
Bay of Pigs wasn’t the US military.
Iraq II was a massive military success. It was the civilians that botched that one.
How about Grenada, ousting a junta? Or Noriega in Panama? They were much more similar, and turned out OK really.
And Putin is probably wishing he played it that way at the start of his “special police operation” in Ukraine.
He tried to do it but his special forces got bogged down at Kiev airport and the. His armoured columns got bogged down on their way from Belarus.
They didn’t plan or train for the operation or even have the right equipment.
FSB promised that the fix was in with the mayors and population, but they had stolen the money which was supposed to be used for bribes. Allegedly. AND all-arms tactics and IFVs desgned to deal with 100 metre range bazookas/RPGs didn’t work with 3000m ATGMs.
Seems like the bird who won the Nobel Peace prize would be very supportive of Trumps actions:
https://twitter.com/i/status/2007483901057605863
Exactly, but interviews (from a safe haven far far away) are cheap. Now it’s time for her to walk the walk.
Sanctions are slow and hurt the general population. Removing a corrupt and unpopular leader is quicker and cleaner as long as the dominant force, be it internal or external, does not usher in (or as has happened far too frequently in modern times inadvertently allow power to be seized by) an even worse regime.
Anyway, the lady has a chance to justify her somewhat surprising prize retrospectively by enthusiastically welcoming yesterdays events – basically telling the rest of the world to STFU and allow her resource-rich country a chance to be rebuilt.
From what I’ve heard from Venezuelans, both the diaspora & in-country, the general mood is celebratory & cautious optimism. There’s been a few sullen groups standing around in Caracas with pro-Maduro placards no doubt the BBC cameras have been feasting on. At a Brasil/VZ frontier post the VZ border guards were looking a bit disorientated. When asked they just gave shrugs.
You wouldn’t think that after watching the BBC website coverage… One speech from the clearly pro-Madura VP, 5 vox-pops of those decrying Trump’s actions and a single token bloke saying it might not be so bad after all. Standard BBC bias doubtless still applies.
It certainly isn’t what I’m hearing. And the Venezuelans I know are VZ’s poor. Why they’re here. And VZ’s majority. Also the ones most likely to be Maduro supporters, one would suspect.
Of course. Maduro promised to Give Them Stuff. He has demonstrably made their lives worse, so they’re up for the next one to Give Them Stuff and the Orange Man has plenty.
They’ll get Stuff all right, but mostly not what they expect. If they stick with it they’ll find they end up with a lot more Stuff, better, and more to their personal tastes. Argentina will point the way. I bet Millei’s happy.
*If* this guy is to be believed, and from what we’ve seen so far it seems plausible, the US weren’t impressed with her and that why they’re negotiating with Rodriguez:
It also nice to know they’ve put some thought in to what happens after the event, unlike Iraq.
For Trump, the point of winning a deal is to enjoy the benefits.
With Venezuelan’s you’re dealing with a very different culture from Iraq. Venezuelans are almost indistinguishable from the Spanish or Portuguese. The same good points the same bad. A distinct lack religious fanatics. I’d imagine the average Yank is more religious than the average Venzuelan. Particularly as US religion has a nasty streak of Protestant Puritanism running through it.
You’re dealing with very different economics. Venezuela has similar economics to other non-democratic countries like Iran and Russia. Over 70% of Venezuelan exports are oil, crops etc. Spain is closer to 20%.
Good article. A simple point well made. You expect the Sage to think it’s about securing oil supplies, but a BBC guy has said as much implying the US gets an advantage from this.
It’s amazing how the anti-capitalist left gets such bad heroes:
more consideration for Black Lives in the UK – convicted US criminal George Floyd
International Law should be upheld – election fraudster tyrant Maduro
Many others
Anyone want to make a book on Cuba falling over before the end of the year?
No.
Meanwhile, here in Cuba-in-the-rain, there’s even less chance of a coup…
TBH, they’ll support anyone who’s anti-white and anti-Western.
Agreed. And £25 in your tip-jar, Tim!
“It’s all about oil” is about as convincing as “it’s about drug cartels”.
The latter is the internal legal fig leaf to cover the grubby but necessary business of regime change. Of the various strategic factors, oil is undoubtedly one. But it’s mostly about third party access and control of that oil.
The grab operation was tactically impressive but strategically? They’ve removed the fig leaf. Does the US have any legal business in the country now?
I definitely think Trump blundered in saying that the US will run Venezuela. That’s not even in his power at the moment, and saying so might push it further away. Another unforced error, in my opinion.
This, the Yanks are good militarily but they always fuck up the administration bit. As mentioned above it’s up to Corina now.
Recently yes, but to be fair they did a pretty good job in Japan after WW2.
But that was 80 years ago. Since then? Nada.
Yeah, but since then they haven’t been much cop militarily either.
Until Donald the Great.
Japan was a modern industrialised country when occupied by the US. Iraq and Afghanistan are backward rural shitholes. Venuzuela is loads of rural peasants living in city shanties.
In the 1990s when I worked in Ven, it was a thriving modern country. The people in the cities were sophisticated, the women are beautiful and there was a large middle class. Violence was dreadful, but then so is it in Chicago.
The problem was corruption amongst the political class, which meant that Chavez at first seemed a good change. That optimism didn’t last very long at all.
I get Tim’s basic point. But DJ Trump spent a fair whack of the press conference talking about getting the oil pumping. Pretty sure his idea is to give favourable terms (probably even need guarantees) to US oil companies who’ll get their cut before anyone else. And if they weren’t paid full whack when nationalisation was done, then they’ll be a hell of a lot to pay up on top of the re-investment costs i assume before the income flow is directed to the populace.
Sure if it’s the quickest way Venezuela GDP gets back to where it should be then who can say its a bad thing? Still there were other options before now, China seemed interested in investment which i’m sure the military hawks were sure to mention heavily to those whose approval they required. Why else mention hemispheres and monroe doctrine?
And when Chavistas start shooting at yanks, how long is that going to last? Are America going to send in thousands of troops, like they did in Afghanistan?
dunno. My guess is that instead of invasion they just say to whoever is in charge do this this and this. And if you don’t we’ll come and get you too. Might work.
Very good piece Tim, thanks.
That’s just legitimised our raid to snatch Anne Sacoolas, killing anyone who gets in the way, hasn’t it?
Are you listening, Kier?
Isn’t the advantage to the oil companies? If US companies get the right to extract on favourable terms then that’s an advantage, even (especially) if the end users are paying full price.
Happy to be shown to be wrong on this, but I don’t think the end-users paying market price deals with the accusation.
Perhaps that is dealt with by the other point in Tim’s article: that the US is now a net exporter of oil. By bringing unsanctioned Venezuelan oil to the general market, the price of all oil on that general market, including the oil currently sold by US companies, will fall and thereby reduce the profits of those US oil companies.
It will also have the happy side effect of making Green shit even more relatively expensive, which will please Orange Man.
And make Russian oil exports even less lucrative, which will please me.
Venezuelan oil is going to be flowing freely for quite some time. When Chavez put his mates in charge of the state oil company they basically trashed the golden egg. There was no maintenance and the Venezuelan engineers who were apparently some of the best in the world all fled.
The reason it needs the US companies is for their capital and technical ability and there probably aren’t many other countries with the capital and expertise to bring them back on stream.
bugger *isn’t*
Ladies and gentlemen, we got him
Who does buy Venuzuelian sludge? And who competes to sell similar sludge? Could it be a move to flood the sludge market and kill off other suppliers?
Mostly China, and India did – not sure if they still do in the same volume.
There’s a lot of heavy and sour about, way more than sweet and light.
One other large source; Urals, along with others. As per Tim’s article, refineries need to be built to handle the lower viscosity and the higher sulfur. So, Citgo own a couple in the Gulf of ‘Murica, and Rosneft own 50% of Citgo courtesy of the Chavez days. Whether Rosneft really do own that slug would be some what debatable, ‘cos Sanctions.
But they definitely own some within Russia.
Which do seem to be not that distant from a free fire combat zone.
Interesting piece, Tim.
I don’t think it was the only reason – I think there’s something in the drugs and guns and gangs and thousands of deaths stuff, I think there’s a lot of pour encourager les autres (if the Danes think he’s crazy, maybe they’ll sell him Greenland?), plus anyone with the US military is going to want to have a play with the train set now and then.
But I suggest they wanted the oil.
I should say, I don’t think he’s crazy – it’s just what a lot of bien pensant wankers think, and I imagine the Danish government is firmly entrenched in that group.
I don’t personally mind invading places for oil – we need it, it’s human nature, and real life.
If the Yanks didn’t do it the Chinese were going to, one way or another, so who cares. I’d rather our side – to a point – had it than the other lot.
‘Buy’. I’ll return to that in a moment.
But if it ‘didn’t want to buy this stuff from oppressive, idiot, dictators like Maduro’, why would it change the law to allow that to happen?
Why not change Maduro?
In other words, this says not much about whether they wanted the oil, it says more about realpolitik and an incredibly busy president working against much of his own government taking a bit of time to get round to things (IMO).
After all, as you point out,
This seems somewhat inconsistent with your point above.
Anyway, yadda yadda…. but what if Trump actually wants to sell Venezuelan oil, not buy it?
Arguably, it has just ‘changed Venezuelan domestic law and allowed US companies to sell Venezuelan oil.’
*I don’t personally mind invading places for oil – though I’d far rather buy it.
As always it’s just a matter of establishing the right price.
But if Trump is allowed to get away with defying International Law, China might march into Tibet or Russia impose a government on Georgia. Oh, wait …
Or the EU impose a goververnment on Poland, Ireland, Greece, Italy… oh wait….
I’ve read the whole thread and come to the conclusion that Trump is cauterising a wound. The Monroe Doctrine is not just to keep Commies with nukes out of South America. Or at least, it isn’t, now.
If you allow South America to continue to be a wound of failed states, with Russian and Chinese encouragement it’s also a wound that suppurates narcotics, immigrants and crime, and acts as a justification for USAid and all that entails. You address those symptoms by cauterising the wound. Make those countries affluent again, like Argentina before Peron, and there will be too much domestic opportunity and wealth in those places for the populations to bother being Mafiosi.
That Trump and his pals may benefit personally from this is a side-effect, not the goal. Were it the goal he’d be doing private deals with narcos. I see no evidence that he is.
The Monroe Doctrine is
now the Donroe Doctrine.
I see S. America as the future. It has enormous resources. Its population is growing. They’re becoming increasingly well educated. My experience, they’re becoming better educated than Europeans. They’re industrious & don’t expect to be pampered. They’re finally shaking off the influence of the Catholic church. They aren’t deluged by Muslim & other 3rd world immigration. They have the potential Europe had more than a century ago.
And being someone who puts their money where their mouth is, I now own a house in Brasil & expect to be fucking off from Europe in due course. Bye. Thanks for all the fish.
‘Brazil, the country of the future.’
…and it always will be.
The outlook looked better in the 1st quarter of the C20th.
Elections are due October. Unless Lula pulls a TTK. The Brasilians I know who were enthusiastic when he was elected are disillusioned now. So they’re very likely to be seeing a change of government
I’m not convinced. Are you saying that if Venezuela had been a country with no oil – maybe relying on bananas or beef for exports – Trump would have acted the same?
But maybe it’s not about oil. Maybe it’s about freedom as Maduro was elected by a subverted election, so the USA are going to set the Venezuelans free. They’ll be free whether they want it or not.
Grab a world map, and remind yourselves where Venezuela is relative to the USA.
If you throw a flat rock really hard and skip it over Cuba, you hit Venezuela.
Maduro has been partying with Iran and China, et al.
No way was that going to be allowed.