Skip to content

One reason I don’t trust government plans

Officials are also examining the possibility of stockpiling certain critical minerals.
Metals such as gallium, germanium, yttrium, cobalt and neodymium, among others, are essential for making components that go into a wide range of defence systems, from radar in the Royal Air Force’s Typhoon fighter jets to the Royal Navy’s Dragonfire laser weapon.

Well, you’d not stock neodymium metal, just as an example. It oxidises, after 3 to 4 months it’s not worth using in magnet making. And so on an etcetera, there are ways to do it, ways not to, for all of them.

And, well, this is going to sound excessively pompous, but that’s fine for as all know I am excessively pompous. But this is a bit of the world where I have some knowledge. Quite a lot of knowledge in fact. I’m also at a Westminster think tank, part of that information fog that surrounds government. So, me, I’d sort of think that if the govts straining every sinew to pass a log of a policy here that there’d be some reach out. You know, Tim, you know some of this stuff, any ideas? True, true, I don’t know much about cobalt and I think a UK production chain from ore onwards is most, most, unlikely. But Ga, Ge, Nd and Y, yes, could at least inform the conversation a bit.

But has that government straining to produce that log reached out at all? No, no, they haven’t.

Again, I know this is excessively pompous of me. But when govt is trying to craft a plan you’d sort of hope they do reach out to those expert in that field. I am expert in this field and govt has not reached out. Therefore I don;t trust govt on such plans.

A corollary and opposite of Gell Mann Amnesia perhaps. As govt plans on something I know about seem uninformed then I assume that’s true of all govt plans.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

87 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Grist
Grist
7 months ago

Come on, Tim! You might know relevant facts, but which clubs do you belong to? And how many hours a day do you spend in them? You need the proper lines of communication, old boy!

Theophrastus
Theophrastus
7 months ago
Reply to  Grist

And I’ve never thought of Tim as pompous – unlike Spud…

Baron Jackfield
Baron Jackfield
7 months ago
Reply to  Grist

Indeed. I’m sure that The Athenaeum is an absolute treasure-trove of abstruse chemical knowledge.

Norman
Norman
7 months ago

In my experience government plans start out uninformed, in that they emerge either from pollies trying to curry favour from specific demographics or clients, or civil servants essentially doing the same, or playing “ideologies”. They’re essentially negotiating gambits, pushed to the max.

Then, in the course of the inevitable consultations, actual experts turn up or make submissions, and inform the lower-grade officials tasked with running them. These then get ignored if they contradict the policy, unless it becomes unavoidably clear that the contradiction is so likely and severe, and the risk of failure so great, that it will result in public embarrassment or humiliation before everyone consequential in government involved with this policy has safely moved on.

“Stockpiling critical minerals” sounds good, serious and responsible, so they’ll do it, even if the result is a useless waste of money, like nearly all of the rest of government.

Last edited 7 months ago by Norman
Addolff
Addolff
7 months ago
Reply to  Norman

In my old game anyone who sought to enlighten newer members of the industry that their ‘great ideas’ were problematic were referred to as ‘blockers’.
“Old, stale males” was also heard at times, but seeing as it was a female HR Director uttering it, it was OK.

Norman
Norman
7 months ago
Reply to  Addolff

“Chesterton’s Fencers”, perhaps?

Bloke in North Dorset
Bloke in North Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Norman

That chimes with my experience in the army and working on the government’s Mobile Infrastructure Project (MIP).

In the case of MIP they’d decided the budget and the scope of the rollout ie the number of sites needed to fix the problem, before consulting industry. When I started I even had to explain to some very senior civil servants that mobile sites were subject to planning law and no amount of: “were from the government and here to fix your problems” was going to speed up the process. They were astounded later on when they found out a couple of motivated individuals could block a site that the whole community wanted.

Needless to say it failed on its own terms, although some areas did get some coverage.

To the case to hand, my first thought was cui bono and my guess is they’ve been consulting the people that would be storing the materials. If you’re a Simple Shopper isn’t that who you’d go to find out how much it would cost when you’ve been told we need to store strategic amounts? Why would the Simple Shopper even ask whether it could be stored and for how long?

(For those late to the blogging party, Simple Shopper was coined by Mike Denham on his Burning Our Money blog)

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago

I worked on some software to prevent another Victoria Climbie and the budget was based on Brown talking to the press.

It was quite a complex system, but the budget was insane. It just meant that money got pissed away until it was all spent and we all went off. The civil servants would just be constantly asking for changes instead of getting v1 out.

Chris Miller
Chris Miller
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

So just like every government project, anywhere, ever.

Bongo
Bongo
7 months ago

Is there a useful definition of a critical mineral. ‘Cos none of those five metals are minerals. Is this the DT being daft or relaying ignorance from their government source. I suppose you could stockpile the critical metals – storage in an oxygen free atmosphere is available.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago

The problem is about knowing who the experts are, knowing what works.

Businesses are generally run by people who started near the bottom. Car company CEOs are people who were once in the engineering team. Over 20+ years you collect a lot of knowledge and experience and contacts. Things outsiders don’t know.

What do we do with ministers? We appoint people with zero experience. So you get idiocy like trying to reverse Beeching. Transport ministers don’t understand that basic thing about the end-to-end journey. They don’t understand that high speed is pointless for a 200 mile journey.

Norman
Norman
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I think even that is a category error. They’re primarily concerned with “jobs”, votes, kickbacks, ideology, virtue-signalling, and not going negative on the greasy pole. The ostensible aims of most policies don’t need any “understanding” because they’re essentially window-dressing of variable plausibility.

Last edited 7 months ago by Norman
Bloke in South Dorset
Bloke in South Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Norman

Not wanting to start a “who can be more cynical” contest, but of that list I don’t think their concern for jobs is real; it’s just a way of achieving some of the others (mostly votes and virtue signalling).

For many of them, I’d say the same about ideology (especially by the time they’ve reached the higher positions), but there are some who do seem to genuinely believe the most ridiculous things.

M
M
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

“Car company CEOs are people who were once in the engineering team.”

What?

Perhaps if you’re talking about a new car company, i.e. a startup.

A company that has made cars for long enough that there’s been more than one CEO almost never has one that’s actually designed or built a car. They tend to be either finance or legal guys.

Admittedly this is probably why car companies tend to go downhill.

Last edited 7 months ago by M
Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  M

Toyota, Honda, VW. Although to be fair, Mercedes are a finance guy.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago

If people think a war with China is likely, why are we still buying all our shit from them?

Lots of our household goods are made in China. Toasters, washing up bowls, usb leads. We go to war, we aren’t going to be able to get them. So why aren’t we also preparing for that too? Should we be allowing BYD to sell cars here as it is going to profit a war machine that will be used against us?

It’s utterly inconsistent.

Also, when have China wanted war with us, except over our lovely opium?

Bloke in North Dorset
Bloke in North Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

Should we be allowing BYD to sell cars here as it is going to profit a war machine that will be used against us?

Poland has banned Chinese EVs from military sites and it probably won’t be long before that spreads across NATO. (China banned Teslas from their military sites some years ago for the same reasons, all those cameras and sensors may not be primarily for spying but who knows what could happen)

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago

That’s understandable, like if you go onto certain secure sites you can only use a feature phone.

Jason Lynch
Jason Lynch
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

And other sites are “PED Red” – no mobile phones of any sort, no smartwatches, FitBits, “health rings”… you can’t even bring car keys if they do “push a button to unlock”. No RF transmitters of any sort allowed past the tubes.

Well, anon-ish.
Well, anon-ish.
7 months ago

Try some of the sites I visit. I tried to get my unit to get the base to tell the hire company to deliver non-Ch manufactured cars but hey, it’s only a mile or so extra walking through the rain.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

Should we be allowing BYD to sell cars here as it is going to profit a war machine that will be used against us?

What profit? It’s unlikely China is making a penny on EVs once you account for the massive state subsidies. They’re selling EVs here for a song because there’s no demand in China, market completely glutted.

Seems quite likely every BYD you see on European streets represents a net loss of actual wealth to the Chinese?

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

The Atlantic:

In China, you can buy a heavily discounted “used” electric car that has never, in fact, been used. Chinese automakers, desperate to meet their sales targets in a bitterly competitive market, sell cars to dealerships, which register them as “sold,” even though no actual customer has bought them. Dealers, stuck with officially sold cars, then offload them as “used,” often at low prices. The practice has become so prevalent that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to stop it. Its main newspaper, The People’s Daily, complained earlier this year that this sales-inflating tactic “disrupts normal market order,” and criticized companies for their “data worship.”…

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

The practice has become so prevalent that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to stop it. Its main newspaper, The People’s Daily, complained earlier this year that this sales-inflating tactic “disrupts normal market order,” and criticized companies for their “data worship.”…

Ha ha, that’s quite ironic. It was warped data from idiot central planning incentives that led the commies to command an economy built for hundreds of millions more people than actually existed. It turns out that paying/supplying schools per pupil created a big incentive for schools to have lots of pupils. Seeing as there were no other junior population measurements taken the state only recently discovered that a great many of these pupils never existed (other public bodies are similarly incentivised to over-report). This being both a communist and Chinese state, face-saving was more important than reality-facing. So adult census data was inflated to match previous expectations.

The Chinese consumer market is much smaller than imagined because the population is much smaller, and older, than imagined. Empty cities, empty apartment blocks, empty cars.

Mr Womby
Mr Womby
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

The practice of dealerships buying cars then selling them as secondhand has been going on in the UK for years. EVs are especially subject to this custom. If you check BCA’s auction listings you will find hundreds of cars that are a few years old with three or four previous “owners” but only 50 miles on the clock.

Bloke in South Dorset
Bloke in South Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

“the Chinese Communist Party … complained earlier this year that this sales-inflating tactic “disrupts normal market order,” and criticized companies for their “data worship.””

Ha!

Communists complain that something “disrupts normal market order”, when one of the main objectives of communism is to remove the market from decision-making.

Communists complain of “data worship” whilst advocating central planning that requires them to collect and follow huge quantities of data (and, per Hayek, can never have enough to actually make the right decisions).

I think my irony-meter has just exploded; must be a dodgy Chinese one.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

BYD are making profits. It’s a premium vehicle. And a few others. But there’s a sea of cheap cars.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

BYD is claiming (and NB: Chinese accounting) a net profit margin of 4.18%. A very expensive 4.18% margin when you look at all the resources the Chinese state has thrown at the EV makers over decades. I doubt China will break even on this investment, even if BYD does. Looks more like they’ve just successfully hoovered margin out of the car industry and misallocated vast sums of cash from actually profitable endeavours.

So if we think China is our enemy, we should probably buy more of their cars, not fewer?

Baron Jackfield
Baron Jackfield
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Depends on how clever they are with the inbuilt “abilities” of said cars… Get a sizeable number into the population and you’ll reach a point that when the “remote universal off switch” is activated, the entire country grid-locks to a complete standstill… During which, you invade… 😉

Steve
Steve
7 months ago

How would we even know we’ve been invaded?

Theophrastus
Theophrastus
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Velly eesee, gwailou!

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Well… Yarp. Maybe call them to say this sort of behaviour is unacceptable, and they should not think of doing the same with wine and whisky.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

Mangetout!

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

. . . when you look at all the resources the Chinese state has thrown at the EV makers over decades.

Plus all the other green export stuff (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). And Trump has just said, “Yeah, fuck all that shit.”

So if we think China is our enemy, we should probably buy more of their cars, not fewer?

Communist China is our enemy. They’ve been fueling their capitalistish economy and undermining ours primarily to pay for a massive military buildup. We shouldn’t fund it any further.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  PJF

Communist China is our enemy. They’ve been fueling their capitalistish economy and undermining ours primarily to pay for a massive military buildup. We shouldn’t fund it any further.

Ok, but how do you propose we stop all trade with the world’s only manufacturing superpower?

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Slowly and carefully.

China is going away in that regard anyway, of its own silly accord.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  PJF

The problem with this is that it’s like this Austin Powers moment.

https://youtu.be/EzkzCSwhsx8?si=p6XF2Iod3XczoUQA

How would China benefit from going to war with the countries that buy all the stuff they make? What is the plus of a war here?

Bloke in North Dorset
Bloke in North Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

Why would they even think rationally, or at least the way you think? The Chinese Communist Party exists to preserve itself. They watched what happened in Russia and are horrified at the way the Soviets let their power collapse and are going to preserve theirs at all costs.

Their populations seeing a prosperous and free west is a threat to them and they don’t need another Tiananmen Square protest or protests like the ones they saw in HK.

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

You frequently generate this response, which indicates that you don’t understand the nature of countries and governments and peoples. Amazingly, they aren’t little centres of uniform calm and sensible logic concerned only with interest rates and the balance of trade.

For example, Gaza. They’d all be better off if they just got on with life and let the foreign investment pour in to build a mini paradise with peace and parks and papillons. But they’d rather grub in the rubble and launch a rocket at the Jews at the earliest opportunity, earning themselves more noble rubble blessed with the glorious blood of their children’s righteousness.

See also: almost everyone else across all time.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  PJF

Now look up how much Iran pays Hamas per year. It’s estimated to be about $100-200m.

Why are they ok with kids doing suicide bombing? Because it gets the rest of the family a nice house. Iran pays the family. And it’s why Israel bulldoze those houses.

I’m not saying that people are perfect with their math. They’re often a bit out of date on things. But I don’t think any people are that mad. Why are we not trying to acquire Aquitaine like we once did? Have we changed that much genetically, or is land not worth it to so much?

Stonyground
Stonyground
7 months ago

Of course the answer to these problems is to have the government doing as little as possible.

I worked as an engineer for most of my working life and became used to my advice being ignored until it became obvious that I was right. One sales guy once tried to throw me under the bus claiming that I gave him the wrong advice. I had an email and paper trail so that one didn’t fly.

Ltw
Ltw
7 months ago
Reply to  Stonyground

Been there Stonyground. I was in an on site meeting with my project manager and the client’s construction manager, who was complaining that the delays were because my team had tacked on stuff late. I asked him where the cable schedule was, went out and got it, opened it up to the relevant section, and pointed at the date. Two years before. His copy. Never heard another word about it, but the cables were run in a couple of days.

Noel C
Noel C
7 months ago

Am I the only one who read that article quote and thought immediately of Tom Lehrer?

Philip Scott Thomas
Philip Scott Thomas
7 months ago
Reply to  Noel C

“There’s yttrium, ytterbium, actinium, rubidium
“And boron, gadolinium, niobium, iridium
“And strontium, and silicon, and silver, and samarium
“And bismuth, bromine, lithium, beryllium, and barium”

Baron Jackfield
Baron Jackfield
7 months ago

“… and those are all the elements of which we know at Harvard.
There may be many others, but
they’ve not yet been discarvaard!”

🙂

rhoda klapp
rhoda klapp
7 months ago

The announcement is the action. Nothing else needs to happen. That’s how this government works.

Norman
Norman
7 months ago
Reply to  rhoda klapp

…except when it comes to solar farms, it seems.

Bloke in South Dorset
Bloke in South Dorset
7 months ago
Reply to  Norman

Got to get money to your funders somehow

Grikath
Grikath
7 months ago

Meh… Government™ doesn’t want actual experts in their consultations. They want “Experts”™ who make the noises they want to hear.

And not just Government™… Anything government-adjacent or with sufficiently complicated Manglement structure suffers from the same disease: “Vision” , with a royal dollop of sycophancy.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago

. . . and that’s why you need lobbyists.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago

Officials are also examining the possibility of stockpiling certain critical minerals.

Why would they need minerals?

essential for making components that go into a wide range of defence systems

Government doesn’t make such. Private companies do. It is they who need reserves, not the government. Should the GOVERNMENT have them, they wouldn’t necessarily be available for use. The war will be over before the bureaucracy releases them.

The commie imagination shows through: government takes action as if it were the actual producer. Tim instantly notices ‘officials’ don’t even know what they are talking about.

Also note US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Biden drained it in 2024 to lower gasoline prices before the election. The point being that whatever lovely reasons are given for storing materials, their usage will NOT be governed by such notions.

jgh
jgh
7 months ago
Reply to  Gamecock

Doesn’t petrol “go off”? Surely a petrol reserve would be continuously filled and drained at the same time to never have enough static to go off.

M
M
7 months ago
Reply to  jgh

I think he drained it by selling much more than they were buying to lower the market price.

Which also provides a one time goose to revenue to make the Democrats look better on the budget than they actually were. “Hey look we’re in progress to balance the budget!” No you weren’t.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago
Reply to  jgh

Petroleum. Not petrol. Unrefined crude oil.

Tractor Gent
Tractor Gent
7 months ago
Reply to  jgh

Apparently we have a national frozen food reserve, or we did. One of the big warehouses along the A1 was one. I guess they turned that over regularly, but being a government reserve, perhaps not, and when the EU decided to blockade us completely we would all die of botulism from ancient fish fingers.

johnnybonk
johnnybonk
7 months ago
Reply to  jgh

Does Petroleum Spirit (gasoline) go off? There’s memes on the internet ATM that it does, but I’m pretty sure I’ve used years old stuff in mowers and motorbikes – perhaps I misremember. Anybody know anything about this? I’d say it lasts some years at least, others say only months.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago
Reply to  johnnybonk

Ethanol in gasoline will kill it in 3-4 months. Turns to varnish.

Ethanol free gasoline will last for years.

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Gamecock

Government doesn’t make such. Private companies do. It is they who need reserves, not the government. 

There is little to no commercial incentive for private companies to bulk store supplies for a potential indeterminate war that may never happen. Their supply chains need to be tuned to their competitive activities. Preparation for war is a natural responsibility for national government (because nowadays it is national governments that have wars). This doesn’t mean government should do the storage, it should just ensure it is done appropriately.

Jim
Jim
7 months ago
Reply to  Gamecock

@Gamecock “The war will be over before the bureaucracy releases them.”

“See that sign, sonny”

“What? The one that says ‘Stores’?”

“Exactly! If we wanted you to have it, the sign’d say “Issues”, wouldn’t it? Now run along.”

Ltw
Ltw
7 months ago

Tim, I would (and have, occasionally) be very annoyed if I got cut out of discussions about changes to certain subsystems we have. Tunnel ventilation, fibre infrastructure and networking, electrical distribution to some extent. If I don’t know the exact details I know who to call. Different scale but you know what I mean.

Your stuff on metals and minerals I’ve always found very informative, because it’s so far out of my field. Not pompous!

jgh
jgh
7 months ago
Reply to  Ltw

Similar to how as I grew up in Sheffield we were all taught about steel making processes in Primary School, or just learned it by osmosis. So when I see people pontificating unknowledgably about steel processess it riles me how wrong they get it.

chris
chris
7 months ago

I’ve been in one niche over 25+ years – never known it so bad. Combination of Brexit (literally told not to talk to people) and Covid killing informal networks, grade escalation and loss of expertise after the pension changes and in some main departments a unwillingness to engage at all. No consultation on bills going straight to parliament, made up RIA with no consultation.

In one entertaining case they actually asked my trade association to stop me talking and the regulatory quietly rewrote the Bill via guidance.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago

Not quoted on the article:

The F-35 Lightning II supply chain is a massive, global network led by Lockheed Martin, involving over 1,650 suppliers across the US and 19 partner nations,

Leaving aside the belming stupidity of thinking you can win industrial scale war with a services economy and a population that already wants to kill you for mass immigration and Net Zero, the West’s wundewaffe depends 1,650 suppliers across 19 nations. Thankfully, it’s by all accounts a very good waffe. But if we were at war for 4 years, say, that 19 nations, 1,650 companies supply chain would fall down.

So we should probably buy several billion pounds worth of spares, no? Or not fight wars, that’s always cheaper.

Joined up government? Hopefully Tempest is cheaper and less complicated.

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Thankfully, it’s by all accounts a very good waffe. 

Indeed so proven. Part of its raison d’être (did somebody mention pomposity) is that wars it fights in won’t last long. If that plan doesn’t work the yanks can fall back on large stocks of fourth gen fighters.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  PJF

Part of its raison d’être (did somebody mention pomposity) is that wars it fights in won’t last long.

I think every war in human history was intended to be a short one tho.

Tbf, the F-35 is good enough that it could probably destroy the entire Russian air force on its own. If they’re not shitting themselves about that, they should be.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

The f-35 is a jobs creation scheme and designed to make wankers feel safe.

If you get into a Proper Fucking War, you need cheap, easy to build and maintain machines. And you outnumber the enemy.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I think the unfortunate lesson from Ukraine is the factors that win wars haven’t changed since 1945. But we’ve changed, having decided we no longer need to be able to build large quantities of advanced warships, planes and other necessities quickly and using our own national capabilities. Even the US is not immune to this, their shipbuilding has atrophied since victory over Japan.

Hence the China ploblem. We, the West, cannot defeat China, but they could defeat us. And they could defeat themselves. So, as an island, our best bet is achievable defence capabilities that raise the cost of waging war against His Majesty’s forces to uncomfortable levels? Not to “win”, but to win without fighting.

In a serious multi year shooting war like the one still raging in Ukraine, we would definitely need simpler, cheaper and mass producable. The Tesco basics are unsexy but most important – shells, tubes, mines, drones and warm bodies. Can’t hold a line without those things.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

I’m very sceptical there will be any war with China. What’s the foreseeable situation that we get involved in? Do we want conscription to defend Taiwan? Ask the people down the street how much they give a shit and whether they want their son going off to do it.

But if you’re going to get into a war like that, you need to think about what the economy would become. We’re not going to have the luxury of women and trannies and meeting health and safety law.

You need to think like that.

Like the Ukrainians aren’t doing some absurdly expensive contract with Lockheed for drones, with all the costs of LGBT compliance and making sure they create jobs in Wisconsin. They’re buying cheapo Bayraktars from Turkey made from off the shelf parts or for reconnaissance, off the shelf DGI drones like Argos sells.

It’s why every warlord uses ak47s and Toyota pickups. This stuff is cheap and works.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I’m very sceptical there will be any war with China. What’s the foreseeable situation that we get involved in?

Idk but in 1945 few people would have predicted British troops would end up fighting the Korean War?

Building a massive bluewater navy is putting Chekhov’s revolver on the table. Sooner or later it’s going to get used for its intended purpose.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

“Idk but in 1945 few people would have predicted British troops would end up fighting the Korean War?”

Korea was occupied by Japan until 1945, after which it was divided into two parts, one with American support, one with Soviet. You get some chaos when an empire removes itself from a country as everyone there fights over control of it.

We also didn’t need to fight. I’m not talking about some twat wanting to do an Iraq/Afghanistan. I’m talking about a proper war of defence.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I agree. The West is a huge market for China. Pissing us off will cost them a hundred million jobs.

Now, their fine government might be okay with a few hundred million starving. They aren’t like us.

My concern is China is saber rattling, when it seems to serve no purpose.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Gamecock

I generally assume people are like us. But geography/climate changes people. Like the Arabs kick the shit out of each other because all there is in the region is oil. You get rich kicking the shit out of the next guy and taking his oil. Switzerland don’t do that. It’s about productive wealth.

Chris Miller
Chris Miller
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

The Arabs were kicking the shit out of each other long before anyone knew there was oil there, or that it might be valuable.

Marius
Marius
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I am very sceptical too, but for different reasons.The CCP’s biggest fear is losing control of its citizens and after five years of a dogshit economy they are straining at the leash. For example, SOP in a spat with Japan, as they are currently having, would be for “spontaneous” nationwide demos against the Japs. That hasn’t happened because the CCP is scared that, if people are out on the street, they might get wrong ideas about who their enemy really is.

Also, Chairman Pooh has purged so many people from the PLA that there’s barely any generals left to give the orders.

Gamecock
Gamecock
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I expect a Chinese war. With India. Over Australia.

PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

I think the unfortunate lesson from Ukraine is the factors that win wars haven’t changed since 1945. 

No idea how you can say that, especially as the current war hasn’t been won.

Low flying drones have rendered old style methods (massed manouvre war) catastrophically expensive, and the drone war itself is only enabled because neither side can dominate the sky with conventional air assets.

If the US Air Force joined in now they would sweep the opposing force from the sky and quickly destroy all communications, command and control, and logistics. No info, no food, no ammunition, no drones, no spares, no reinforcements, no fuckin nuthin.

We’re mostly still at the level of the Gulf Wars. Dominate in the air with a combination of advanced stealth / SEAD and conventional fighter bombers until the enemy rear is smashed and then move technically superior ground forces foward to take control. As in nearly all wars, enough smarts will beat masses of dumb.

Hence the China ploblem. We, the West, cannot defeat China, but they could defeat us. 

What planet are you on? China is almost entirely dependent on seaborne imports for food, energy and to support an industrial base that is almost entirely dependent on seaborne exports. We can besiege China without going near China. Their navy has very little blue water capability. They’re a paper dragon and we should do our best to keep them that way until the whole edifice collapses.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  PJF

No idea how you can say that, especially as the current war hasn’t been won.

Cause it’s true. If it were not true, Ukraine wouldn’t be constantly requiring massive transfers of weapons, being smart would have beaten Russia by now.

Low flying drones have rendered old style methods (massed manouvre war) catastrophically expensive,

No, modern ISR did. Drones are just a logical implication.

If the US Air Force joined in now they would sweep the opposing force from the sky and quickly destroy all communications, command and control, and logistics. No info, no food, no ammunition, no drones, no spares, no reinforcements, no fuckin nuthin.

Sure, but how quickly before the nukes fly?

As in nearly all wars, enough smarts will beat masses of dumb.

Which is why we’re sprechen zie Deutsche right now? Oh wait, the Red Army won.

We can besiege China without going near China. Their navy has very little blue water capability. They’re a paper dragon

So you say, but they’re building the world’s most formidable navy. China is actually very good at building ships, they build most of the world’s new vessels now.

We’ve been here before, misunderestimating the Chinks, no? The Japanese chinks turned out to be bloody good sailors and airmen.

an industrial base that is almost entirely dependent on seaborne exports

Maybe that’s why they’re building the world’s largest navy? Which you assume will be crap, or never used in battle? An heroic assumption.

Marius
Marius
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

We, the West, cannot defeat China

China has virtually zero capability to move its colossal, badly-trained, corruption-ridded army outside its own borders. The PLA would likely fuck up invading Taiwan, unless the brief was to bomb it flat first. It has absolutely no chance of defeating the West, or even a bit of it.

bloke in spain
bloke in spain
7 months ago
Reply to  Western Bloke

I’d say you thinking a bit behind the times.5th generation aircraft are weapons platforms. An F35 will probably never see its target because it will launch its weaponry from 50 or more miles away & probably never be detected. It’s why the USAF are able to be flying B52s alongside F35s despite being a 50s vintage design. They may even resurrect the 747 missile truck concept.
That said, the US does have a lot of 4th generation aircraft.The f16 fills the cheap & cheerful role & there’s plenty of F14s in storage.

Last edited 7 months ago by bloke in spain
PJF
PJF
7 months ago
Reply to  bloke in spain

. . . there’s plenty of F14s in storage.

Sadly not. All the stored F-14s were shredded to prevent spares ending up in Iran. There are dozens of museum exhibits but they’ve probably had useful parts removed for the same reason. The only airworthy Tomcats are with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and probably soon to be destroyed.

Drat.

jgh
jgh
7 months ago

It’s similar to all the screaming from people saying they are “desperate” for software engineers and screaming for immigrants to fill the supply. I am a software engineer. They have not employed me. Therefore they are not desperate for software engineers.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  jgh

They are desperate for “software engineers” (ie Indians who identify as software engineers) who cost 10 a penny for their “work”.

Not desperate for high quality results or success tho.

Western Bloke
Western Bloke
7 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Then they yell at me in desperation to fix it. Yeah mate. I want 50% over normal rate to unpick that shit.

There’s some good Ashoks and you can save money with them. The problem in a lot of companies is they they get the cheap crap Ashoks.

dearieme
dearieme
7 months ago

I can think of one episode when Government reached out to me. They were panicking in the immediate aftermath of Chernobyl and needed some analysis and conclusions PDQ.

It was all done in such a rush, and through a cut-out, that I never did learn who I was working for. MI6? UKAEA?

I do know the buggers never paid me.

Steve
Steve
7 months ago
Reply to  dearieme

That’s why I stopped wearing Soviet jeans, DM

Because Chernobyl fallout.

Theophrastus
Theophrastus
7 months ago
Reply to  dearieme

I do know the buggers never paid me.

BBC?

Mr Womby
Mr Womby
7 months ago
Reply to  Theophrastus

Recently I was wondering what to get my wife for her birthday. I had the bright idea to check her browser history for suggestions. The phrase “BBC” seemed to appear frequently so I bought her a subscription to the Radio Times. She wasn’t very impressed but she never explained why.

Ed Snack
Ed Snack
7 months ago

Actually, keep the Neodymium under mineral oil or in a non-oxidising atmosphere ? Or both !

87
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x