The one thing that we can be sure of is that if regime change is the plan, it is unlikely to succeed, because anything really acceptable to the people of Iran is unlikely to be acceptable to the leaderships of the USA, Israel and the UK. History has already proven that.
That he includes the UK in the list while we have a spineless ‘uman rites lawyer as PM shows his understanding of global affairs.
History has already proven that.
Interpretation, bias, and incomplete records mean history is often the best-supported narrative rather than proof, you wazzock!
Over the years I’ve worked with hundreds of Iranians. All of them very pleasant (except Mitch” and he pretended to be Italian). None of them were in favour of the current regime. Admittedly they were exiles so biased. They did however explain the behaviour of certain western visitors that helped fuel the revolution.
“None of them were in favour of the current regime. Admittedly they were exiles so biased.”
If the Iranians hate the leadership so much, why don’t they deal with them? Like the French knocked the blocks off the Bourbons, or we executed Charles I, or the yanks rose up and booted us out?
Lots of people gain from dictatorships. All those Germans put on uniforms for the Wehrmacht because they were getting paid. A lot of Germans thought some Lebensraum would make them all richer so supported the Nazis. Most people don’t care that much about democracy. They just want to be richer. If some clerics or a dictator is giving them a job paid for with the oil money, they’ll keep supporting them.
Some people will protest, some will cheer the death of a leader. They’re mostly the people of the group not getting a share of the wealth. But the people who are getting a share are going to defend the current state of things. In a non-dictatorship way you can observe this with most Labour supporters. They want Labour because they work in some phony government job and want it to be kept, and want a nice fat pay rise. Local government people aren’t Labour supporters for some philosophical pro-Marxist reason. It’s just about getting paid more.
Ceausescu went from being Dear Leader to a corpse hanging upside down in an afternoon.
When the preference cascades, it’s pretty quick. And almost no one saw it coming.
The Romanian revolution was about the fall of the Eastern Bloc. These countries like Romania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia had the capacity to be democracies (lots of industry, not so rich in resources) which was only suppressed by the Soviet Union helping certain favoured people. Once the Soviets were out of the way, they all went democratic quickly.
If the current regime goes, it’s going to be civil war in Iran. It’s not going to transition to a peaceful democratic country.
At least they won’t have nukes, and will be too disorganised to fund their proxies. Suits me.
So long as they don’t all flee over here.
Nowt wrong with the late-‘70s wave of Iranian refugees. Educated, secular or moderate, mostly capable professionals. But recent experience suggests that isn’t who we’d get this time around.
Spud is the guy who wants a two state solution to the Palestinian question, even though Pallies really really don’t want one.
We’ve had a two-state solution in the Palestinian Mandate since 1923. Job done.
What I would say to Mr Trump: “As one Supreme Leader to another, can you tell me exactly what your purpose is?” I suspect it might be little more than FAFO.
So he gave me this Infinity Gauntlet and I said Wow! What an honor! No President in history – well, Sleepy Joe couldn’t even get the Tesseract!! Obama? He couldn’t even get into Black Panther. You know, they didn’t give me the Nobel Prize and that’s okay… that’s okay… And Thanos here, you should’ve seen his backswing at Trump Turnberry, what a pro. He has some great ideas on Iran but anyway…
Excessive modesty has never been one of his vices.
Murphy doesn’t even understand his neighbours’ opinions; he’s got no chance of understanding Iranians.
But he doesn’t care about any of them, because he’s always right, so that doesn’t matter.
Uhhh . .
There will be regime change. 100% chance.
Reminds me of a heuristic – statues erected while you’re alive, you’re a baddie. Erected after you’ve shuffled off, you’re not so bad after all.
If you claim that you can tell one Ayatollah from another, I’ll say you’re lying.
Some appear dead.
I’m waiting for the dust to settle. The Iranian foreign minister told us that the regime is supported by millions. Iran has a population a bit over ninety million. Supported by millions can mean two million out of the ninety or it can mean a majority. Not even the greatest global strategist of our generation, Barack Obama (some snark going on there), can tell us for sure.
Anyway it is providing gainful employment for the rented crowds who were feeling rather neglected after Gaza and Venezuela had gone off the boil.
He has no fucking clue about the opinions of his own countrymen, so expecting him to do better when it comes to johnny foreigner is a fool’s errand!