As Spud tells us, Hormuz is closed, world’s running out, The Depression awaits:
Oil prices on track for steepest monthly fall since 2020
Brent crude futures down 19% since end of April
Oh. Now that is a tad inconvenient…..
As Spud tells us, Hormuz is closed, world’s running out, The Depression awaits:
Oil prices on track for steepest monthly fall since 2020
Brent crude futures down 19% since end of April
Oh. Now that is a tad inconvenient…..
There’s an old market saying. “Up (down) on anticipation, down (up) on realisation”. Because things are never as good (bad) as they’re first thought to be. It’s so predictable it’s a guaranteed way to make money. Just a matter of timing.
Markets are always based on opinion & not reality. Although reality always wins in the end.
Problem is, by the time reality wins, your position can leave you bust even if you were right. Read an analysis of the dot com crash somewhere, if you were right that it was inevitable and the valuations were crazy, but you didn’t know the timing of it in advance then it would be almost impossible to make money by shorting it. Because the prices would keep moving irrationally against you.
As I said. Timing is all important.
An easing of the oil price was a dead cert.
Yes, annoyingly I had to order heating oil ten days ago.
It was looking very likely that the price was going to come down soon, but the tank was getting very empty.
I switched over to AC a few weeks back.
With any luck the heating oil price will go down by October.
Heating oil? Didn’t you look at the weather forecast?
One still likes a warm bath.
Couldn’t book a hotel suite in Sheffield for a funding the future event because couldn’t agree on cancellation terms. Spud believed the potential for an energy spike would mean people wouldn’t be able to afford to travel. Based on a misunderstanding of IEA countries committing to carry 3 months reserves, and so counting from when the last ship out of Hormuz docked its cargo in March, he thought prices might go Montblanc soon.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
Well he wasn’t the only one, but his omniscience means he should have realised that it wouldn’t happen: