The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world – and we are far from ready for it
Bill McGuireOne of the biggest upheavals in a millennium is on its way, strengthened by the climate crisis. We need leaders who make things better not worse
El Nino turns up every few years. 7 is a usual estimation of the cycle. This will be the worst one of the last 142. Undoubtedly. Certainly.
A certain type of humans just loves some of that catastrophism.
We need some consequences for predicting nonexistent disasters like those that used to happen to astrologers that got it wrong.
So, as this slimy weasel effectively admits this effect was growing for thousands of years prior to the industrial age, that there is no correlation between emissions and El Niño and that there is “no straightforward correlation” (ie there is no correlation) between the strength of El Niño and its impact on humans.
So the entire article is a pack of lies. Get in the fucking sea.
Thank you Marius. So ENSO duration average has gone from 3.5-4.1yrs over 7000 years. That’s an impressive bit of analysis.
One problem with that. El Niño events only received attention and scientific study in 1891 after a strong event in Peru. More detailed study started in the 1920, so where the data for 7 000 years comes from is a mystery.
It’s possible to infer stuff from climate proxies like tree rings but yes, it’s an inexact science with political pressures.
Put not your faith in tree rings. They are not subject to a single limiting factor. Was a fat ring from extra rain? Or from a warmer year?
… or some furry animal expiring at the base of the tree and giving it an extra boost of fertilisation..
They used selected proxy reconstruction of the coral oxygen isotope anomaly
The samples came from the Kiritimati and Fanning Atolls. You’d want more sample sites really, but impressive to me.
And that could equally be down to long-term effects from coming out of the last ice age.
I live in SE Australia in a regional bush town pay attention to climate ect for pragmatic reasons
Records for here go back to about 1910. Around here is the data shows that there is simply no correlation between winter spring El Ninio and summer rainfall.
The best way of mitigating the effects of this is the industrial capitalism the Khmer Vert so despise.
I’m taking much entertainment from the current catastrophism over AI. Soi disant intelligent people urging the International Community to agree how to regulate AI before it’s too late. Do any of them imagine that the IRGC AI department would comply with any international agreement? These Emperors have no brains.
As has been often discussed in the past: their aim is not to make things better but to position themselves as right-thinkers, to get well-paid jobs to make rules and/or to be able to punish wrong-thinkers.
Yup, plus the old status-signalling of being seen to be “thinking” correctly.
What Gamecock finds most amusing is none of these fuckers even know what AI is.
Perhaps they have none of their own, so they wouldn’t recognise it when a machine has it???
The bloke looks like someone’s lesbian great aunt, so it’s unsurprising that he’s scared of his own shadow.
It is almost impossible to get a man to shut his fucking mouth about ‘climate change’ if his livelihood depends on him regularly flapping his gums about ‘climate change’, and he does a lot of flapping.
He runs a company called Disasterman Ltd (the twat) and seems to live with his missus in a house in Derbyshire valued at around £1.5 million, or 5x the local average price.
Disasterman’s accounts aren’t stellar, mind you. Neither are his not-heating company’s. I wonder what his book sales and speaking fees a re like, and what emoluments and grants he scrapes by on.
Disaster Man Disaster Man
Does whatever a grifter can
Spins a web. Total lies.
Castches bungs. Any size.
“El Nino turns up every few years. 7 is a usual estimation of the cycle. This will be the worst one of the last 142. Undoubtedly. Certainly.”
The strength of an El Niño event can only be determined retrospectively
NOAA and other weather agencies are not predicting “strongest” or “worst”, they say it will be a strong El Niño, that’s all.
The strongest El Niño events were: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16.
Interestingly: “global warming” peaked in 1997-98. Of course not due CO2 emissions but El Niño. And that was the year “global warming” died, because the warming stopped or “paused” as the Climageddonists insisted. It then after about 8 years started to decline whereupon “global warming” was reborn as “climate change” because whereas warming/cooling can be measured and plotted on a graph, climate cannot – it’s an abstract.
This El Niño isn’t particularly strong (so far), though it does come only three years after the last one, which was strong.
Both El Niños and La Niñas, for example, have been steadily increasing in duration over the last 7,000 years.
Since no one was around 7000 years ago to take measurements, how’d they arrive at that? Oh a model. And what’s the model based on? Proxies. And how are you calibrating the proxies? Another model. Based on? Proxies. By the time you finish with that lot the inaccuracies are going to sum to greater than the signal. It’s a guess.
The Mayans sacrificed people to the El Nino God to make it stronger. They don’t now because climate change is more effective.
This is the problem with the whole idea of “climate science”.
When physicists do something like the Hafele-Keating Experiment, which tested Einstein’s theory of relativity by putting atomic clocks on aircraft, they were in control of, and could measure every part of everything that happened. They could check the clocks were good before they went on board, they could monitor the speed of the aircraft etc. Everything that could influence the results was known.
No-one can accurately say what it was like back when Cambridge University started measuring the temperature. We know those thermometers weren’t so accurate, for starters. We also don’t know about how developed it was around the university and what impact that had. We’re not comparing like with like, in the way that two atomic clocks made exactly at the same time with the same components can be.
The temperature spike at Conigsby (one of the UK’s highest temperatures) was probably because of aircraft taking off, even though the Met Office deny it. But, how do you redo the experiment to check it?
And the general attitude of not letting people have the raw data, opposing FOI requests stinks. The data and methodology should be public. That’s basic good science. That anyone can scrutinise it.
It isn’t “climate science”, it’s climate “science”!
I prefer “climate mania.”
At only one minute long this snippet of a Feyman lecture on the scientific method
The Scientific Method-Richard Feynman should be required viewing for anyone calling themselves a climate “scientist”.
Oh and don’t trust their “raw” data either. It “might” be raw but quite possibly it might have been “calibrated” to match other sources before being published as raw.
And the general attitude of not letting people have the raw data, opposing FOI requests stinks. The data and methodology should be public. That’s basic good science. That anyone can scrutinise it.
If it can’t be replicated it’s not science.
Every time they hype this shit up and every time it turns out to be a summer that is a bit wetter than normal.
Yes, they have been crying wolf for forty years now, more than half of my lifetime. You would think that more people would have caught on by now that there is no climate crisis.
Wut? Which leader do you have in mind to make El Niño better? What would a ‘better’ El Niño look like? How would they make it ‘better?’ WTF are you talking about?
Oh. So your ‘create chaos around the world’ is gross speculation. What a dick.
Just when you think Guardian couldn’t get any stupider . . . .
If only the Grauniad was merely stupid ….