The Terrors

Maps of the US and Canada dot the wall above Steve Ahearne’s desk at Pinpoint Manufacturing Ltd in Swansea, south Wales.

The company, which produces tough, high-quality bags used for lifting tools and components mainly for the wind turbine industry, has ambitions of expanding into North America.

“In an unhindered world we’d be looking to crack on and truly go global,” he said. “As it stands we’re a bit unsure, nervous about how we should be investing. We want to expand but we may have to delay. Our order books are a bit quieter than we’d like them to be and our investment plans are up in the air.”

The reasons for the hesitancy are twofold: uncertainty over what shape Brexit will take, of course,

Brexit’s really going to have a big effect on exporting into the US and Canada, isn’t it?

No, the Canada/EU deal does not allow re-export to the US.

Err, yes Sonia, this is what we’ve been saying

Yes, parliament can block a no-deal Brexit – if it can just agree on how
Sonia Sodha

If a majority of the Commons voted for some specific plan then that would indeed be the plan. We’ve understood this point for some time now.

The parliamentary Brexit problem is that there’s a majority against the current plan, crashing out with no deal on October 31. But there’s no majority for any other plan.

We know, this, we’ve been saying it for some time now.

How many others feel this way?

The former chairman of the Remain campaign has dismissed calls for a second referendum, claiming that politicians should abide by the “democratic process” and “get on with it”.

Lord Rose of Monewden, who also previously served as executive chairman of Marks and Spencer, said that he believed the UK should have already left the European Union with an “agreed friendly divorce”.

Asked if he was now calling for another poll due to the increased prospect of no-deal, the former head of Britain Stronger in Europe said: “No, I’m not. I’m saying listen, we made our decision, it’s democratic decision, let’s go with it in the best possible way we can.

“I am a Remainer but I do believe in a democratic…

More importantly perhaps, how many others outside the Westminster Bubble think this way? We hear about how Leavers are dying off – but how many people are righteously pissed at Remoaners and their machinations?

El Twatto Di Tutti Twatti

The most basic logic escapes these people:

Why have the Brexiteers been allowed for so long to portray themselves as heroic defenders of our national interest? By turning their back on the EU they are running away from the issues facing our continent, problems that every nation faces but which no one country can resolve alone. This is not heroism, it’s cowardice.

Europe’s climate problems are our problems and, with the UK emitting just 1% of global greenhouse emissions, only through a collective approach can we hope to have real influence in shaping global policy. Europe’s borders are our borders, at least where the mass movement of people is concerned, which is certainly likely over decades to come. Our security interests are shared, whether to fight terrorism or counter the less than benign influences of Russia and China.

The values of democracy, pluralism and the protection of minorities that are enshrined in the EU treaties risk being undermined from within by the “illiberal democracies” of Hungary and Poland. The UK should be at the heart of their defence.

It is possible to cooperate with people without being a part of the same federal nation.

We cooperate with people about climate change through the various COPs.

We cooperate with people about civil rights through the Council of Europe – the European Court of Human Rights is not an EU one.

We cooperate with people on trade through the WTO.

It’s not necessary to be ruled by Druncker in order to cooperate with people. Why is this so difficult for these people to understand?

Err, Polly?

The markets are already taking care of this:

Calico Cottage is a family-owned firm in Haddenham, Cambridgeshire, making specialist chocolate and fudge in two factories employing 50 people. Nigel Baker, its managing director, is despairing in his attempts to prepare for a no-deal Brexit: Calico exports 20% of its produce to the EU and uses imported raw materials. Trading on World Trade Organisation rules means a 20% tariff will be slapped on to his exports, a price rise he’ll have to absorb: he sells to Disneyland Paris and says customers won’t pay the extra.

The £ will decline by some 20% – in fact, the £ has already declined by 20%.

Oh, and we can also leave this system:

How EU sugar tariffs work
As the UK is currently part of the EU, we’re subject to EU rules. That will change after Brexit, but we don’t yet know how.

The rules on sugar tariffs depend on several variables, such as the country of origin of the raw material – sugar cane or sugar beet – who produces it, a mill or refinery, and whether it is for direct consumption or additional refining. Getting it correct is important because getting it wrong can be expensive: tariffs vary between €419 and €90 per tonne.

The basic tariff for importing direct consumption sugar into the EU is €419 per tonne. So, every tonne of sugar imported from a non-EU country costs an extra €419. Raw sugar imported into the EU is to be further refined into white sugar attracts a tariff of €339 per tonne.

Except not every non-EU country pays the above tariffs. The EU also has what it calls its preferential tariff structure. The import duty for raw sugar is only €98 per tonne if imported from a ‘CXL’ country, which includes Australia, Brazil, Cuba and India. But only for sugar destined to be refined into white sugar.

Least Developed Countries (LDC) and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries trading under Everything but Arms (EBA) have unrestricted, tariff-free imports of raw sugar into the EU.

If things weren’t complicated enough, if a mill outside of the EU is producing raw sugar which it sells as, for example, brown sugar for direct consumption, then it pays the full €419 per tonne tariff.

This has been true all along

MPs attempting to block a no-deal Brexit may have run out of time and options to prevent Britain leaving the European Union on October 31, a respected think tank has said.

The Institute for Government has claimed that “time is running out” for the Remainers who are attempting to delay Brexit, and that “simply voting against” no-deal cannot stop Boris Johnson.

There needs to be a majority vote in favour of some other deal. Just being against the current status quo isn’t enough.

Which is the problem of course. There’s a lovely Commons majority against every deal. There’s just not one in favour of one.

Yep, uncertainty is damaging

Uncertainty about the date of leaving the European Union is more damaging than a no-deal Brexit, the new deputy chairman of the Conservative Party has said.

Not that I’d want to predict this as being true right now but it’s possible and also certain at some point. Solving the uncertainty will cause more of an economic boom than whatever the actual terms of leaving are…..

Good God, I agree with Noel Gallagher

Lately, he has been enraging remainers – of which he is one – by saying: “There’s only one fucking thing worse than a fool who voted for Brexit, and that’s the rise of the cunts trying to get the vote overturned.”

“And people started calling me a Nazi!” he says. “I thought: ‘Really? A member of the Third Reich?’ Look, I think it’s ridiculous that we’re leaving. None of us were even qualified to vote. You ask a guy above a chippy in Bradford if we should leave Europe. ‘Yeah!’ But I still think if there’s a second referendum, as a nation, we’ll never recover. We have to come out because, no matter how ill-informed people were, you’re saying to them their vote doesn’t count. And its symptomatic of shutting people’s opinions down.”

Not on the being a Remoaner of course, but on the once the vote’s been taken bit…..

Something I don’t know

But if Brexit does mean Brexit, we are determined that the negotiated withdrawal agreement, including the backstop, which safeguards the Good Friday agreement, cannot be discarded as Johnson has requested.

What is it that makes the EU responsible for safeguarding the Good Friday Agreement?

Isn’t it actually an agreement between the two sovereign nations, Eire and the UK?

Well, yes Polly

Boris Johnson’s crew will repel voters – there’s no need to fear him
Polly Toynbee

No deal isn’t the will of the people, and a hard Brexit policy will alienate moderate Tories – especially when they see the costs

The only people currently in Parliament who are complying with the stated wishes of the 52% of the voters in the referendum are – Boris and the Hard Leavers. Everyone else is Remain.

Way to repel voters, right?

Brexit! Brexit!

Just everything will go wrong if Brexit happens:

The British government will need to introduce legislation to impose direct rule on Northern Ireland in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, incoming Johnson administration ministers are being warned.

The highly politically toxic move would pit the Johnson administration squarely against the Irish government and effectively suspend the Good Friday Agreement, with Belfast ruled from London.

However, without the imposition of direct rule, officials and experts warn that Northern Ireland, whose devolved government collapsed in January 2017, would become essentially ungoverned as it faced its biggest crisis since the signing of the 1998 peace deal.

Err, why?

Stormont is suspended without Brexit. Therefore Stormont’s suspension is nothing to do with Brexit or not, is it?

It’s, rather, Remoaners becoming increasingly untethered from reality. Brexit will make your big toe turn blue! Your hamster will rape the cat!

Well done Telegraph

Britain’s EU contribution rises by 20 per cent in year, as UK’s booming economy props up Brussels’ budget

Be interesting to know why….

Britain’s contribution to the EU has shot up by £2.6 billion per cent in the past 12 months, new Treasury figures show, as the UK’s growing economy was used to prop up Brussels’ budget.

No, we’re not going to get much useful out of this arts graduate in the Telegraph now, are we?

I don’t know what the law is here

Rory Stewart, the surprise star of the Tory leadership election, has said he would help organise an “alternative parliament” in order to stop a no-deal Brexit if the new prime minister tried to prorogue parliament in order to bypass MPs’ wishes.

The MP for Penrith and the Border, whose campaign featured a series of walkabouts around the country to gauge public opinion on Brexit, also accused fellow no-deal opponents who are now supporting Boris Johnson of a destructive pessimism about their ability to change the Conservative party, or even win the next election.

Stewart said a former Speaker, such as Betty Boothroyd, could be enlisted to oversee a parliament continuing to sit in defiance of Boris Johnson if he presses ahead with a no-deal Brexit by seeking to prorogue the Commons, or to use some other “constitutional manoeuvre which means whatever legislation parliament tries to pass does not bind his hands”. He said any plan to prorogue parliament, an option still entertained by Johnson, would be a constitutional outrage.

Umm, doesn’t trying to overturn the sovereignty of Parliament constitute treason?

So, do we get to put his head on a pike or not?

Not really understanding finance here

Of all the terrors of Brexit:

The mass layoffs following the S&P rating downgrade of Britain to BB status were especially traumatic.

Doesn’t really work.

For the rating to actually change it needs two of the big three to change it. So S&P alone means nothing, it requires Fitch and or Moody’s to also.

Secondly, ratings don’t drive events, they react to them. If there were mass layoffs and a crumbling economy then maybe the agency would downgrade.

Finally, in order not to sound too Ritchie-like, why would a down grade cause lay offs? The government finding it more expensive to borrow means the private sector fires people why?

Slightly difficult…

The Green Party are arch remainers:

HMRC has blamed EU tax laws for the planned rise because they rule out lower VAT rates for energy saving equipment under state aid rules.

The European court of justice ruled in 2015 that energy saving materials should not have been receiving the reduced rate of tax. This led to an increase in VAT for solar systems installed at new-build homes in 2016, but did not affect the majority of houses which would require retrofitting. Those houses will now be affected by the higher rate.

The REA has called on HMRC to cancel the latest increase, which would come into effect as the UK prepares to leave the EU. Any rise should be cancelled as soon as possible after Brexit, the trade group added.

Well, quite.

Most perceptive Polly

In these elections remain was the winner, not Farage.

Well, yes, clearly so.

What mattered beyond the number of seats won was the sum of remain votes. Lib Dem, Green, Scottish National party, Plaid Cymru and Change UK outpolled Brexit and Ukip by 40.4% remain to 34.9% hard Brexit. Now add in Labour and Conservative votes, divided – as pollsters Britain Thinks and YouGov suggest – by allocating 80% of Tory votes to leave, and 60% of Labour votes to remain. That suggests a remain win in a referendum by 50% to 47%. Certain? Of course not – it’s close – but this three-point remain majority certainly makes it a democratic outrage to press ahead with any kind of Brexit without giving voters the final say. And what is not in doubt is that there’s a clear majority against a no-deal Brexit.

Jeez Polly. The entire parliamentary problem is that there’s no majority on favour of any one specific outcome. All you’ve done there is state the same thing. There’re all sorts of majorities against one specific outcome and one in favour of any one. That’s the entire damn problem, isn’t it?