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Ahahaha, snigger

A YouGov survey put Mr Farage’s party on 19 per cent, ahead of the Tories on 18 per cent. Labour remains ahead on 37 per cent, a lead of 18 percentage points, while the Liberal Democrats are placed fourth on 14 per cent.

Obviously, it’s not going to work that way on seats. But it is a delight, all the same.

At this level of analysis

The BBC reported that Mr Gribbin is also said to have allegedly criticised women, writing on UnHerd’s message board: “Do you think you could actually work and pay for it all too like good citizens?

“Men pay 80 per cent of tax – women spend 80 per cent of tax revenue. On aggregate, as a group, you only take from society.

“Less complaining please from the ‘sponging gender’.”

He added that women were “subsidised by men to merely breathe” and in January 2022 he also posted: “Men pay 80% of tax. Women take out 80% of expenditures.

“Square that inequality first by depriving women of healthcare until their life expectancies are the same as men, fair’s fair.”

If I had stood my chance of making it through unscathed by this sort of analysis would have been?

One possible explanation

Not that I think it’s true, nor even vaguely so:

But that did not appear to influence voters, with the AfD gaining 16.2 per cent of the vote, according to an exit poll by state broadcaster ARD.

Germany’s Greens were the biggest loser on Sunday, falling 8.6 percentage points to 11.9 per cent,

Fairly large chunk of the voters who are grotty little fascists they just wibble a bit about what they want to be grotty little fascists about.

While that’s fun the reason it’s not true is that the AfD aren’t fascists while a signifricant portion of the Greens are.

And?

Peter Geoghegan, from Democracy for Sale, said: “The GWPF refuses to declare its donors but our investigation has found that the most prominent face of climate change denial in Britain is being bankrolled by Conservative donors with seats in the House of Lords, including one appointed in Liz Truss’s controversial resignation honours list.

“That GWPF is being funded by Tory peers and has close ties to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK goes to show how climate denying money is influencing our politics.”

People are allowed to spend their own money their own way, yes? Like Dale Vince giving £5 million to Labour?

Well, yes,

Bim Afolami, the economic secretary to the Treasury, was asked during an interview on Sky News how worried he was about Reform and he replied: “Honestly? I’m not particularly worried about Reform. Should I tell you why? I’m not worried about Reform because they don’t have a plan for reforming anything.”

He added: “It’s easy to shout from the sidelines, if you’re Nigel Farage or anybody else, to shout and say ‘all of the parties, all of the established parties, they’re rubbish’.

“It’s easy to do that. They haven’t put out a plan for anything. Frankly, at least in the days of Ukip, they actually had a policy. These guys don’t even have a policy.”

Having a policy or two would be useful if about to gain government. But in the current climate it’s only necessary to shout “Yah! Boo!” from the sidelines to cause you pain and grief.

Now, whether it’s true or not is another matter

“The US economy is clearly slowing down, and in our base case it is headed for an outright contraction,” said Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup’s US chief economist.

If so, US Treasuries, German Bunds, and UK Gilts are massively mispriced. So are BBB junk bonds trading at an average wafer-thin spread of 1.09pc, matching the extreme complacency seen before the global financial crisis.

Mr Hollenhorst has pencilled in a contraction of 0.3pc and 2.1pc (annualised) over this quarter and next, with double-digit falls in business equipment investment. That in turn will push unemployment to 5.5pc by the end of the year in a classic recessionary dynamic.

But that’s then Trump for the win in November.

Don’t trust election predictions!

Narendra Modi’s party was set to lose its majority for the first time after falling well short of an expected election landslide, hampering ambitious plans to change the Indian constitution and cement his grip on power.

Mr Modi’s BJP party is projected to win the election in the world’s largest democracy, early results showed, but lose dozens of seats in parliament. He will now have to rely on alliances with smaller parties to secure an overall majority.

Yesterday, day before, I was seeing predictions of a two thirds majority. So, we don’t have to worry. It is still possible, the turnaround, the Tories could still be wiped out.

Who would have guessed it?

WILLIAM HAGUE
‘Local’ MPs can’t give leadership we need
A parliament dominated by former councillors would be ill-equipped to respond to the great global challenges ahead

Billy Hague arguing that the elite, the Oxbridge lot, should be selected because, well, elite, right?

But we are highly likely to see that, whichever party wins, there will be more MPs than ever before who claim a close connection with their seat, that they are a true “local” representative. Never mind whether they could sit down with Joe Biden or eyeball Vladimir Putin — they will show, in their rapid response to your emails, they know about that months-old pothole from those recent roadworks. They will prioritise the parish meeting no matter what is going on in the wider world.

That is, they’ll do what we want not what elite opinion thinks they should fail at.

Such a terror, eh?

Ooooh, lovely

Is this the one seat Labour is set to lose on election night – not to an imploded Conservative party, but rather to the Greens? It would be easy, but ultimately facile, to write off Bristol Central as an outlier. It is a trendy, bohemian enclave of the south-west, where locals once rioted over the opening of a new Tesco, and which polling suggests is the most pro-migrant constituency in Britain.

And there are certainly ingredients here that are particularly favourable to a left-of-Labour message: estimates from 2021 suggested most residents are under 35, about half are private renters and about a quarter are born in another country. But with research suggesting that millennials are the first generation not to move rightwards with age, the number of private renters in England and Wales doubling this century, and Britain becoming ever more diverse, Bristol Central could simply be a window to the near future.

So Owen Jones gives us the plan. Build houses and stop the immigration or the Greens will gain political power.

Fair old urgency to that, no?

Have they laid out the details yet?

The Great British Energy thing. Anyone seen the actual detail of what they propose to do?

There is a smart logo and a flashy website.

When Sir Keir Starmer launched the Labour Party’s plans for Great British Energy in Scotland earlier this week, it was meant to be a defining moment.

The state-led energy giant that would reduce the UK’s carbon emissions to zero and cut everyone’s energy bills while creating thousands of “well-paid green jobs” would finally begin to take shape.

There were just a few snags.

It turned out the logo had been bought off the shelf for £35, and was already being used by other companies,

Well, yes Dan

It will be a miracle if American democracy survives this election
Trump has tapped into the visceral anger of citizens who no longer believe in institutions that have failed them

And also:

At some point over the past ten years, these norms were dropped, and politics became an all-or-nothing affair in which any win for the other side was treated as cataclysmic. To some degree, a similar process has been playing out in other advanced democracies – witness the under-reported rise of the authoritarian Right in Europe. But Trump, as much the catalyst as the beneficiary of the process, has taken it further in the US.

It is possible to think that this started on only the one side. Having done so well in that march through the institutions then the noose was tightened…..

So they did it then

Donald Trump has been found guilty in his hush money trial in New York.

He has become the first former president to be convicted of a crime, after the jury returned that verdict on all 34 counts.

His lawyers and supporters will wonder how this affects their client’s chances in November’s presidential election, but the more pressing issue will be his sentencing on July 11.

The 77-year-old, who is already liable for half a billion dollars following a string of civil losses, could face a further hefty fine. A prison sentence, though highly unlikely, is also possible.

It’s that last that doesn’t, really, change very much. Even I don’t know whether all the other trials have been civil or criminal so the average voter doesn’t. It really is only actually putting him in jail that’s going to change opinions.

And then the question becomes, well, which opinions and which way?

An interesting insight

Only seven out of 27 EU countries require political parties to reveal the identity of all their private donors, with Spain and France among the most opaque when it comes to the influence of money over politics.

As the European parliament prepares for crucial elections next week, with polls predicting a surge in the number of hard-right MEPs, the Guardian and another 25 European media partners, coordinated by the investigative platform Follow the Money, are publishing Transparency Gap, the most extensive analysis yet of party financing in bloc.

It cannot possibly be true that the people disagree with us, the proletarian vanguard. Therefore it must be false consciousness brought on by bribery.

That’s the real message here.

Quite possibly, quite possibly

The prosecution in Donald Trump’s hush money trial told the jury that the alleged “catch and kill” scheme to squash bad stories about the former president “could be what got Trump elected”.

Addressing the court in a mammoth six-hour closing argument, prosecutor Joshua Steinglass said that the plot to cover up negative stories by Mr Trump and Michael Cohen took away Americans’ right to valuable information about a presidential candidate.

“This scheme, cooked up by these men, at this time, could very well be what got President Trump elected,” said Mr Steinglass in his argument that ended shortly before 8pm local time.

Thing is, lying, covering up, in order to win election are not, in fact, crimes.

Fool

The state pension will never be taxed under the Conservatives, Rishi Sunak will declare on Tuesday.

Give it a couple of years and that’s going to mean a different income tax allowance for pensioners as against earners. Not sensible – but, electuion time, votes to be bought.

As PJ O’Rourke said

Hillary Clinton has accused women of abandoning her in the 2016 presidential election and claimed that female voters were more willing to take a risk on ­Donald Trump.

She reminded everyone of their mother in law. Which, from the female side, often isn’t a positive.

This is how all politics starts, no?

Hinkle and Al-Din have been ridiculed by critics as pseudo-intellectual, cravenly opportunistic grifters who have carved out an intentionally provocative niche designed to siphon followers away from other highly online political communities.

Suits Gerry Healy, for example. Bob Avakian.

Promoted by its two most prominent spokespeople, Haz Al-Din, 27, and Jackson Hinkle, 24, Maga communism comprises a grab bag of ideas that can seem lacking in coherence – ranging from a belief in the power of Donald Trump’s followers to wrest power from “global elites” to an emphasis on masculine “honor”, admiration for Vladimir Putin and support for Palestinian liberation.

No more deranged that those groupuscules from the left…..

Electing a non-commie

Ana Eugenia Clemente, a 33-year-old Venezuelan actor, clutched Milei’s new book as she exalted Argentina’s entertainer-in-chief. “I feel a deep hatred for the evil left that damaged my country and feel Milei is a person who has come to save not only Argentina, but the world,” she enthused.

Sounds good, eh?

The results of electing commies

Three decades on from the birth of democracy in the country, the ANC could see its vote share fall below 50% for the first time.

In a country that became mired in corruption under the former president Jacob Zuma, inequality has soared and a run of two months without power cuts by the state energy firm Eskom is cause for celebration.

So, you know, let’s not elect commies.