“The Guardian is offering counselling and therapy to staff as it vowed to support its workforce after Donald Trump’s “upsetting” US election victory this week. In the US, some colleges have given students time off, an extension on deadlines, art therapy classes and access to a therapy duck in response to Trump’s win. Students at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy were reportedly told this week that they could play with Lego, colouring books, and have milk and cookies in “self-care suites” following the result”
##########
Kentucky called for TRUMP (8 EC)
Vermont called for HARRIS (3 EC)
Indiana called for TRUMP (11 EC)
West Virginia called for TRUMP (4 EC)
South Carolina called for TRUMP (9 EC)
Florida called for TRUMP (30 EC)
New Jersey called for HARRIS (14 EC)
Massachusetts called for HARRIS (11 EC)
Rhode Island called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Connecticut called for HARRIS (7 EC)
Maryland called for HARRIS (10 EC)
Illinois called for HARRIS (19 EC)
Alabama called for TRUMP (9 EC)
Mississippi called for TRUMP (6 EC)
Tennessee called for TRUMP (11 EC)
Missouri called for TRUMP (10 EC)
Oklahoma called for TRUMP (7 EC)
Arkansas called for TRUMP (7 EC)
New York called for HARRIS (28 EC)
Colorado called for HARRIS (9 EC)
Texas called for TRUMP (40 EC)
Kansas called for TRUMP (6 EC)
North Dakota called for TRUMP (3 EC)
South Dakota called for TRUMP (3 EC)
Wyoming called for TRUMP (3 EC)
Nebraska (statewide) called for TRUMP (2 EC)
Louisiana called for TRUMP (8 EC)
District of Columbia called for HARRIS (3 EC)
Ohio called for TRUMP (17 EC)
Delaware called for HARRIS (3 EC)
New Hampshire called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Utah called for TRUMP (6 EC)
Montana called for TRUMP (4 EC)
Iowa called for TRUMP (6 EC)
California called for HARRIS (54 EC)
Oregon called for HARRIS (8 EC)
Washington called for HARRIS (12 EC)
Maine split votes HARRIS (3 EC) TRUMP (1 EC)
Idaho called for TRUMP (4 EC)
North Carolina called for TRUMP (16 EC)
New Mexico called for HARRIS (5 EC)
Georgia called for TRUMP (16 EC)
Hawaii called for HARRIS (4 EC)
Pennsylvania called for TRUMP (19 EC)
Minnesota called for HARRIS (10 EC)
Wisconsin called for TRUMP (10 EC)
That’s it! There is now no path to victory for Kamala Harris. Donald J Trump will be the 47th President of the United States after winning the state of Wisconsin.
######## 0650 GMT
Trump is now on 267. Assuming Alaska comes in for Trump he’s on 270. However Alaska hasn’t counted yet. The state that will put him over the top is most likely to be either Wisconsin or Nevada on the current trend.
### 0624 GMT
Arizona was home to two former Republican presidential candidates, Barry Goldwater and John McCain. It used to be a fairly reliable Republican state until 2020 when Biden won it by 0.3%.
This is another must win for Trump even though Republicans are fighting a demographic rear guard action here. In many ways the 48th state in the US is steadily moving from being a wild frontier state to an extension of Southern California.
########0227 GMT
Minnesota is the home state of Harris’ running mate Tim Walz. It was also home to Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, both Democratic Vice Presidents and unsuccessful presidential candidates. Minnesota was the one state that voted for Mondale during Ronald Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984. When asked a few weeks later what he would like for Christmas, President Reagan replied “Minnesota would’ve been nice.”
Minnesota is a potential wild card for Republicans. If this state is even close Harris and Walz should be worried.
######## 0158 GMT
In half an hour many states in the Mid-West will close their polls. Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska (statewide), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming jointly hold the record as the longest continuously Republican states along with Alaska. The last time they voted for a Democrat was for Lyndon B Johnson in 1964. If any of these states are even close Trump should be worried.
######## 0134 GMT
West Virginia used to be a solid Democrat state but it was the second strongest state for Trump, Virginia is the other way around. It is curious that these states have crossed over each other, only on rare occasions voting for the same party.
######## 0126 GMT
Possibly the most anticipated of all the battleground states, Pennsylvania will close its polls in ten minutes.
Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2%. He is originally from Scranton.
Trump won the state in 2016, being the first Republican to do so since the 1980s.
This state is a must win for both candidates. It is difficult for both campaigns to win without those 19 EC votes.
######## 0050 GMT
Florida will close its polls in a few minutes. It was won by Trump in 2020 by 3.4%. This is a bigger margin than in 2020 even though the national swing was against him.
Ron DeSantis was re-elected as Governor by 20% in 2022.
No Republican has won the presidency without Florida since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.
The 2000 debacle in Florida is still controversial, with many Democrats still believing Al Gore was robbed.
If Harris has a chance here she needs to be miles ahead in the early returns as the Pan Handle is very Republican and counts later.
The Latino vote is vital to the Democrats in the South West however most Latinos in Florida are Cuban rather than Mexican and exhibit different voting behaviour.
####### 0046 GMT
Polls will close in a few minutes in North Carolina.
North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 except in 2008 when they voted for Barack Obama.
Trump won here by 1.4% in 2020.
North Carolina is the home state of Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara who has been campaigning heavily here. It has been rumoured for some time that she will run for office herself in due course.
## 0024 GMT
Ohio had a very long streak as the bellwether state in Presidential elections until 2020 when it voted for Trump. The previous occasion on which Ohio voted for the losing candidate was in 1960 when they voted for Richard Nixon.
Ohio is the home state of Donald Trump’s running mate Senator JD Vance.
No Republican president has ever been elected without carrying Ohio. Trump won here by 8% in 2020.
If Trump is heading back to the Whitehouse he should win here by at least 9% to overperform from his narrow loss in 2020.
The Democrats may be close here even though they will likely lose. This is because urban areas count more quickly. Like many other places in the US, the UK and other countries there’s a very stark urban/rural divide.
####### 0022 GMT
In about ten minutes the polls will close in Virginia. The Commonwealth was a reliable state for the GOP from 1968 until 2008 when Obama won here. The state has remained in the Democratic column ever since. Joe Biden won it by 10% in 2020 however the following year they elected a Republican governor Glenn Youngkin.
Donald Trump held a rally in Salem, VA on Saturday. Is he just shoring up North Carolina or does he know something we don’t?
It is unlikely that Harris will lose here but if she does she’s probably toast.
#######23:48GMT
13 Tabulation machines in Wilwaukee are not collecting ballots correctly, some 38,000 votes have been cancelled and have to be recast.
#######23:40GMT
In 45 minutes the polls will close in Georgia. Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. He carried the state by less than a quarter of a percent.
Georgia is a supreme example of the lingering racial divide in the politics of the Deep South. The state has a large population of African Americans as well as many White conservatives. John F Kennedy won this state in 1960 overwhelmingly by carrying both of these demographic groups. Since then no president has been elected with the support of both groups. Whether this is possible anymore remains to be seen.
If Trump loses here again he will almost certainly lose the election.
######## 2315 GMT
48 or the 50 states have a simple FPTP “winner takes all” system for electoral college votes. However Maine and Nebraska have split electoral votes. This means that whoever wins the state overall will take two votes but then one vote each for the individual congressional districts. There are two districts in Maine and three in Nebraska.
######## 2252 GMT
@blokeingermany That is an excellent question. It will be difficult to determine based on the first state calls which will likely by states such as Vermont for Harris and Kentucky for Trump. However the first clues will be when we compare individual county results in those states. Trump needs to over-perform his 2020 showing by roughly 2% to be home and dry. I hope this answers your question. Let us know in the comments.
########## 2240 GMT
The first states will close their polls at 7pm Eastern Standard Time which is midnight in the UK. These states include the key battleground state of Georgia. Half an hour later the polls will close in Ohio and North Carolina. If you’re a British observer maybe get some sleep now because it might be a long night.
######## 1535 GMT
The United States elect their presidents not by direct popular vote but by the Electoral College. The largest state by population is California with 54 votes. Wyoming is the least populous state and has three. Votes are allocated by the total number of congressional seats a state has. California has 52 representatives and Wyoming only one, however both states have two Senators. There is a total of 538 EC votes so the winning number is 270.
########## 0856 GMT
While this election is being fought in all fifty US states, in reality it is six battleground states who will decide who is the next president. Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump needs to flip at least three of these to win however if Kamala Harris can hold five of them she will be home and dry.
########## 0741 GMT
I’m pinching myself slightly this morning, it’s been four years and today is the day. Now we just have 17 hours until the first polls close.
########## 0702 GMT
We are ready, gin is chilled, we have three screens going, markets, this blog and fox.
We’ve 10 pages of notes, maga hats and a flag.
Plus the Russians are next door 🤷🤫
########## 04-11-2024
Howdy! Richard here (webmaster of this parish). My friend Henry—who I’ve known for far too long—and I will be live blogging the US election tomorrow from 10 p.m. We’ll be covering the battlegrounds, offering live analysis, and tracking state-by-state swing numbers.
We’re out in Cyprus, so it’ll be a late one. Expect typos, a bit of drunken rambling, and our personal takes (which you may or may not agree with).
And a big thank you to Timmy for letting us witter on!
