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Costs and Benefits

I\’ve no view either way on this idea of replacing council tax with a local income tax in Scotland. But this I\’m afraid is outrageous:

Alex Salmond\’s plans for a local income tax would cut tens of millions of pounds from NHS and council budgets – enough to employ dozens of teachers and medics, it has been claimed.

Government figures show that it would cost Scotland\’s local authorities, health boards and charities almost £15 million to change their payroll systems to collect the levy, which the SNP wants to set nationally at 3p in the pound.

It would cost them a further £5 million a year to administer the system, by deducting the tax from employees\’ payrolls and forwarding the proceeds to the taxman.

Is that true? Probably so.

The figures have been calculated by civil servants at the Scotland Office amid a growing furore over the SNP\’s plans to replace council tax with a local income tax in 2011.

But horribly, horribly, misleading.

Yes, of course there will be collection costs for a tax. But you\’ve got to do a proper cost benefit analysis, not just look at costs.

How much will be saved by not having to run the council tax collection system?

Her Majesty\’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) have so far indicated that they will not collect the levy, meaning a separate and expensive Scottish system for doing so would have to be set up.

And there\’s that as well.

So, what we\’ve got is the usual electoral battle between Labour and the SNP in Scotland. And Labour at the Union level is deliberately stymying an SNP Scottish policy, by insisting (anyone who doubts this is a political decision is being naive) that HMRC doesn\’t do the collecting and then, further, that civil servants in the Scottish Office produce such lop sided and partisan figures.

This simply isn\’t playing the game with any semblance of honesty or honour. Worse, it\’s simply not British.

Can we hang them all yet?

Celebrating Britishness

Aren\’t we suppoed to be celebrating it? The things which historically have bound us together?

give an airing to Britain\’s vibrant tradition of racism.

Or isn\’t that what Maddy means*?

 

*Working out what Maddy actually does mean is a task too complex for me, apologies.

Climate Change, Umm, Alarmism?

Yup, we\’re all gonna dieeeeee!

One of the world\’s leading climate scientists warns today that the EU and its international partners must urgently rethink targets for cutting carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because of fears they have grossly underestimated the scale of the problem.

In a startling reappraisal of the threat, James Hansen, head of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, calls for a sharp reduction in C02 limits.

Hansen says the EU target of 550 parts per million of C02 – the most stringent in the world – should be slashed to 350ppm. He argues the cut is needed if "humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation developed". A final version of the paper Hansen co-authored with eight other climate scientists, is posted today on the Archive website. Instead of using theoretical models to estimate the sensitivity of the climate, his team turned to evidence from the Earth\’s history, which they say gives a much more accurate picture.

Interesting to note that 350 ppm is actually lower than the current concentration: we thus need to have negative carbon usage. Good luck with that on any short to medium term basis.

But the major point here is about climate sensitivity. How much temperature rise do we get from a doubling of CO2 levels? That in turn depends upon whether we have positive feedbacks or negative ones.

Well, OK, we know that we have both positive and negative: what\’s the overall effect though?

Hansen here is assuming highly positive feedbacks.

Other climate scientists are not so sure. Like James Annan for example. (I think that paper had a great deal of difficulty getting published. You\’ll need to scroll around those archives to get the full story).

Just a note to the gorbal wormening enthusiasts: we\’re supposed to be dealing with the scientific consensus, remember, not the results of one outlying paper that no one has had a chance to read yet.

Wind Power Lies

Now if wind power did indeed turn out to be both low carbon and economic then I\’d cheer: the things is though, will it ever be so?

Wind power ticks more good boxes than almost any other option. It is clean, nearly silent, emits no CO2, pays its way, and is "home made" – no small matter as Europe\’s reliance on imported gas jumps from 54pc to 80pc over the next 15 years.

Unfortunately, there\’s two errors in that (at least). Wind does not emit no CO2. Over the lifecycle it emits around and about the same as nuclear, about the same as large scale hydro. It\’s low CO2 as compared to coal and soon, for sure, but we still use cement to stick the things into the ground….

Secondly, it doesn\’t actually pay its way:

E.On is coy about profit margins. The European operations are flirting with break-even cost, but the company\’s huge 10-mile wind farms in the Texas outback have reached the magical level of €50 per megawatt hour (with US government subsidies), far below natural gas at the current market price.

How much is that subsidy? It doesn\’t actually pay its way until it is competitive without subsidy now, does it? We can of course at this point go off and argue about whether the externality of gas\’ CO2 emissions are a subsidy, one slowly being addressed by the cap and trade (or cabon tax) proposals, but it\’s amuch more complex calculation than just saying that wind is competitive now.

And finally, we\’ve got the great big bugbear of wind energy. What happens when the wind is too weak or too strong:

Yet the International Energy Agency says 3.5pc is more realistic. A report from the UK\’s Royal Academy of Engineering concluded that wind power still costs two to three times more than nuclear energy, even after decommissioning. The dispute centres on the back-up needs when the wind is not blowing.

This is something I\’ve still not seen explained in a manner simple enough for me to grasp. Yes, there\’s those who point out that we only get the energy from the mills 30% of the time and that we\’ve got to have other sources to back them up. I get that.

What puzzles me is that I\’ve never seen an attempted refutation of that point. Why? Is it because no refutation is possible? Or because there\’s something in that argument that means it doesn\’t need refuting?

Anyone actually able to guide me to a discussion of both sides of this?

Consequences

They never do seem to think through the consequences of their actions, do they, these political types?

Gordon Brown is considering repealing the 1701 Act of Settlement as a way of healing a historic injustice by ending the prohibition against Catholics taking the throne.

But doing so would have the unforeseen consequence of making a 74-year-old German aristocrat the new King of England and Scotland.

Perhaps here are things wrong with the British Constitution as she is: but the whole thing is so interwoven that you can\’t just strike out one part of it without revealing gaping holes in other parts.

As, indeed, they found when they tried to abolish the post of Lord Chancellor.

Bravo!

Marvellous!

On being asked to comment on the idea that the 28 year old mistress of the 66 year old Czech President is pregnant the spokesman said:

I am a civil servant and not a valet.

 

The End of the Internet

You know, this sounds very much like a bunch of producers insisting that someone else should pay for their business to succeed.

The internet could grind to a halt within two years under the pressure of booming demand for online video, experts have warned.

Soaring visitor numbers to video websites such as YouTube and the BBC\’s iPlayer are putting the copper wires, which underpin parts of the internet, under severe strain.

Experts warn that unless billions of pounds is spent on upgrading the web\’s infrastructure, it could slow down or even collapse. An internet meltdown would have a disastrous impact on the economy.

Now I\’ll admit to no great technical knowledge but the only copper left in the system is the "last mile" isn\’t it? The exchange to the individual user? Everyone who is running more than the most trivial domestic traffic is on fibre optic already I would have thought: and certainly, the various servers and computer farms are.

Internet providers are being urged to spend billions of pounds to replace the copper wires which provide the final web link to homes with high-speed fibre optics.

Ah, yes, that is the bit that it is said the money should be spent upon. So who are the members of the Internet Innovation Alliance? Corning? They make fibre optic glass. AT&T? They carry much of the backbone, but they don\’t have a domestic division any more, do they (they sold it off, didn\’t they?) Etc. etc.

My, my, people who would make lots of money if billions were spent on putting fibre optic into the last mile recommend that other people should spend billions putting  in said fibre optic.

Surprise, eh?

First Great Western

Bozos.

Using their online system, you cannot book a ticket from outside the country.

Which knuckle dragging mouth breather designed that system then?

Chief Operating Officer

\"Andrew Andrew Haines, Chief Operating Officer

The First Great Western executive team is led by Chief Operating Officer Andrew Haines, who joined First Great Western in September 2007.

Andrew has spent his entire career in the railway industry, having joined British Rail as a graduate manager in 1985 and worked in numerous front line positions.

At privatisation Andrew joined Railtrack where he achieved rapid promotion before joining South West Trains in 1997.

In January 1999 he was made Operations Director and then became Managing Director of South West Trains in September 2000.

He joined FirstGroup plc as Managing Director, UK Rail division in July 2005.

Well done Mr. Haines. You\’re a credit to British industry.

Fuckwit.

Update: From the "customer care centre"

Our Address Search database only recognises UK postcodes, so we are unable to accept registration from anywhere outside the UK. Our Development team is working on modifying the web site to accept these addresses in the future.

Therefore, please buy your tickets on the day of travel from the station.

Umm, £140 against £35?

Please, do fuck off Mr. Haines.

 

Number Crunching

David Craig, a former government consultant, calculates that private sector workers are for the first time being forced to pay more in taxes to fund public sector pensions than they manage to save for their own retirement.

Individuals poured about £15.6 billion into personal and company pensions in 2005. In the same year private sector workers paid taxes of about £18 billion to keep retired teachers, National Health Service staff and other state workers in their old age.

Switch them to defined contribution pensions, it\’s the only solution.

Godfrey Bloom

The man was right you know?

"No self-respecting small businessman with a brain in the right place would ever employ a lady of child-bearing age."

From Today\’s Times:

A survey last year by the Equality and Human Rights Commission makes clear why women are sometimes wary of asserting their rights.

It found 70% of recruitment agencies had been asked to avoid hiring women who were pregnant or likely to get pregnant. A survey in 2004 found eight out of 10 human resources managers would “think twice” before hiring a newlywed woman in her twenties.

Godders again:

"They probably in quite good faith put in a piece of legislation which is designed to protect women in the workplace but what actually happens is it… writes them out of employment."

And what was the reaction to this outburst of truth telling?

The original comments provoked a strong reaction from Labour Euro MP Glenys Kinnock, who said: "We know UKIP are Neanderthal in their attitudes, but it is absolutely terrifying that Mr Bloom can fly in the face of what we have worked and fought for, to establish equal opportunities and rights for women."

She said she will be keeping an eye on him: "He cannot strut around here saying things like that."

Well, quite, can\’t have the truth being told in the corridors of power now, can we?

Wee Willy Hutton

The man is gobsmackingly awful in his economics I\’m afraid.

The sound and fury, though, disguised a more complex reality. In both Britain and France the coalition in favour of nationalisation after the war extended well beyond the left-wing parties and the trade unions. British Conservatives and French Gaullists, along with businesspeople and professionals, were strongly in favour for the same pragmatic reasons that lay behind the nationalisation of Northern Rock. In the circumstances of 1945, the idea that private companies, who had only survived the Thirties via trade protection and price-fixing cartels, and who, in France, had collaborated with the Nazis, were going spontaneously to spearhead the reconstruction of devastated war-torn economies was risible. The propositions of a Thatcher or Milton Friedman would have been met with gales of derision. The state had won the war. It now had to win the peace by mounting programmes of investment and modernisation that were beyond the capacities of the private sector.

That this was the mantra I agree: although it should be remembered that Hayek\’s "The Road to Serfdom" had already in fact been published. Will goes further:

France had thought through the practicalities of nationalisation more carefully. It was evident that the postwar French private sector needed support in every way – with finance, markets and capacity-building – that only careful state planning could provide. Planning was the pragmatic response to French capitalism\’s chronic weakness.

OK, that is indeed what they thought.

In Britain we refuse to accept the proposition, chasing after the chimera of 100 per cent private-sector solutions and regarding nationalisation as a prohibited taboo. As a result we have never invested in making public ownership work, despite its necessity. After all, Northern Rock was preceded by the renationalisation of the railway infrastructure and the nationalisation of one of London Underground\’s contractors, Metronet. If we want the best from our public utilities and infrastructure, these may well be the pragmatic precursors of more. How much better to try to do public ownership well, rather than follow the British fiction that it should not be done at all.

Ah, but, you see, if you want to build a scientific case (and we do all agree that economics is a science?) then you don\’t just look at what happened in one or two places. You set up a hypothesis (nationalisation and planning good for growth, say) and then go and look, not for cases that support the contention, but for those that refute it. For the fact that two countries grew with such nationalisation and planning shows very little: perhaps all countries, whatever their economic systems, were growing in that period?

What you\’re supposed to do as a good little scientist is to look for evidence that disproves your hypothesis. Only if you are unable to find such disproof are you able to say that your hypothesis has turned into a thesis which now stands, until someone does indeed (if ever) find the disproof that overturns it.

And we have to hand an example that does indeed disprove the hypothesis. Adenauer\’s Germany:

The radical new policies adopted by Adenauer\’s post-war Christian Democrat government transformed a sclerotic economy. Between 1951 and 1960 the Federal German economy doubled in size.

The pre-war economy was dominated by price cartels. In the Weimar Germany, no less than 2,100 separate cartels were established by 1930. Under the Nazis, economic frreedom was further constrained. By 1938, roughly 50 per cent of total German output was subject to cartels of one form or another. After the Second World War, the Allies banned cartels, but various forms of price fixing continued.

During the war, and in the immediate post-war period, the German economy was planned down to the smallest detail.

But post-war Germany was led by a group of politicians who rejected the wartime and pre-war orthodoxy of extensive state intervention in the economy. Influenced by Ludwig von Mises and the Freiburg group of economists, they preferred to employ the price mechanism as the key feature of what would be called the Social Market Economy.

Ludwig Erhard, Director of Economic Administration in post-war Germany – later he became Federal Chancellor – was a founding figure of the Social Market Economy. He believed that only under a free market economy could an individual find true freedom, and that only a free society and free economy would deliver the wealth needed for humane social policies and programmes.

Erhard masterminded the introduction of a new currency in 1948 and lifted price controls. He cleverly waited for a weekend to announce his bonfire of controls, knowing that the Allied powers would not be back in their offices until the following week, by which time it would be too late to countermand him. He argued: "We must find our way back to a market organisation free of controls. In place of interventionism, we must insist on personal responsibility and performance. The market is not a diabolical invention to subdue particular classes. On the contrary, it is the only organisation of economic life which creates a just and optimal distribution, a function which no collectivist authorities can replace."

The results of the new free-market policy, adopted in the British and American occupied zones, were outstanding; in contrast, the French and Russian occupied zones remained shackled in poverty. Adenauer commented in his memoirs that: "Every politician who is concerned with questions of economic order should be urged to study the course of events in the Anglo-American zone since June 1948." Arguably they should have studied the United Kingdom too, where rationing and other wartime restrictions were not removed until the 1950s, by which time Germany was well on the way to overhauling the UK economically.

A notable feature of the Social Market Economy was the strong commitment to curbing inflation through the adoption of monetarist policies aimed at maintaining the value of the D-Mark. The Bundesbank refused to underwrite cost rises and unsustainable wage demands by engineering an over-expansion of the money supply. Economic policies were targeted at opening up markets to prevent the misuse of resources and the creation of inefficient monopolies.

Exploiting the new trade freedoms ushered in by the European Economic Community, Germany trebled its exports to five EEC states – France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, and the Netherlands – between 1958 and 1962.

A bonfire of the controls on the economy, a much much lighter hand in the planning process, a concentration upon not ownership, but the eradication of monopolies….that produced vastly better results than the planning and nationalisation which Hutton recommends.

We also have the example of Hong Kong, which went from being entirely destitute after the war to being richer than the UK today: and they even refused to collect GDP figures for the first few decades of that surge in growth, for fear that some planers might do something with them.

The question thus is not whether Statism produces growth: pretty much any not entirely lunatic economic system will do that, given the onward march of technology. It\’s whether Statism produces more growth than non-Statism: and the answer there is pretty clear. It produces less.

So we shouldn\’t do it.

And to think that Wee Willy is a Governor of the London School of Economics.

 

Nick Cohen on Brown

I\’ve said it before but I\’ll say it again. We\’ll get that nice Mr. Cohen over the boundary line from left liberal to classical liberal one of these days, as sure as eggs is eggs.

David Craig, whose previous investigative work showed how Brown\’s Treasury had let management consultants plunder the public sector, has a new book out this month: Squandered: How |New Labour are Wasting Over One Trillion Pounds of Our Money. To spell it out, New Labour has spent an extra £1,229,100,000,000 since 1997 and will have spent £1,700,000,000,000 by the 2010 election. Its most tangible monument is \’a political and managerial culture where mistakes are never admitted, failings are always covered up and mind-boggling bungling is rewarded by promotion, honours and generous inflation-proof pensions\’.

In other words Brown couldn\’t be further from a Dickensian miser if he tried. For 10 years, he has thrown other people\’s money around with the abandon of a Roman emperor or Renaissance pope.

Truly \’unforgiving\’ writers wouldn\’t show Brown as a reassuringly old-fashioned pillar of the kirk, but as a demented spendthrift who stuffed the pockets of bureaucrats, IT salesmen, management consultants and hospital consultants while the patients whose money he had taken lay in NHS beds slowly dying in pools of their own excrement.

Nick, you might start your reading leading up to your public conversion with this.

Money Can Buy Happiness

The report does not specify how much happiness a pound will buy in the current market or whether, with the weak state of the dollar, it would be more cost-efficient to buy your happiness in the US. Concerns that the UK happiness market will be flooded by cheaply-made overseas contentment imports have so far proved unfounded.

See and Do

Ummm:

In a Sunday newspaper interview, Sufiah said she did not see her work as a prostitute as sordid. She said that she turned to escorting after reading Belle de Jour\’s Diary of a London Call Girl, which was made into a television drama starring Billie Piper.

So this blogging thing does work then? People do take note, do copy our actions?

Excellent news, eh? This blog must have created any number of grumpy middle aged gits then.

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