If we believe there’s something, that reification, responsible for our problems, then we’ll think that we can change that one thing and all will be well. Control the markets, do something to the bond vigilantes.
But when we properly understand this, we then realize that in order to change the outcome then, we have got to change the individual decisions of millions of people. That’s something rather more difficult to do centrally, by the law, or press releases, or shouting at people.
In order to change all those millions of decisions we’ve got to change what we’re actually doing.
Say, borrow less money. Which we could do by spending less or even taxing more. Or we could agree to pay the higher price for the borrowing if that’s what we want to do. But because there is no single actor changing prices against us, there is no single person, or reification, that we can blame.
This is true of this specific example but it’s also true more generally. “The market” isn’t a thing. It’s the considered opinion, expressed by their actions, of everyone else out there.
If you don’t like those market prices then it’s those considered opinions that need to be changed. Or, of course, you just have to put up with those prices that result from the accumulated wisdom of everyone else out there.
A little forelock tug at BiS who makes this point so often.
Excellent piece. As somebody remarked the other day, if your idea is “if everyone would just”, then you don’t have an idea. Everyone won’t “just” anything. In this instance, everyone won’t just buy gilts.
There are instances where everybody will just, with a bit of nudging. For example everyone on the tube escalators stands on the right, because there’s a sign and a voice reminding them. But those situations are rare enough to be noteworthy.
I wonder in how many subway systems in the world do folk dutifully stand on the designated side of the escalator? Also, it may work on London’s tube but I don’t see it operating much in multi-storey shops.
@AndrewM: “For example everyone on the tube escalators stands on the right”
Wishful thinking. I wish the tourists would notice that everybody else is doing that, but some of them don’t. Or they do but leave bloody great suitcases besides them in the way.
It’s a fascinating example of people’s different incentives playing out. A escalator is a device to carry its riders up what would be a flight of stairs. You’d think people would be content with the saved effort, but no. Some will wish to walk up it as it moves to get to the top quicker. Possibly they save themselves 20 seconds. They will, in most cases, spend those 20 seconds waiting on the platform until the non walker-uppers catch up. In a very few cases 20 seconds could mean they miss a train. The next one will be along in 5 minutes. So the differences between the outcomes of both actions will be unpredictable & mostly trivial. In the period before the particular even people will have made all sorts of decisions about actions could make them earlier or later, but this 20 seconds is somehow important. Important enough it’s been the subject of arguments & even violence. People.
BiS, you’re forgetting a bit of cardiovascular and stair-climbing exercise, which is why I walk up them. At my local station I walk down the very long escalator because trains can be infrequent and go to different places. I’ve waited 15min for the right train. So walking down makes sense.
Top tip: always have your hand covering the handrail, ready to grab it, because when those escalators stop they do it suddenly enough to topple you over. It’s a long way to fall from the top of my local escalator and you’d be in a poor state by the bottom.
For example everyone on the tube escalators stands on the right,
The promble with that is that we travel on the LEFT in this country, so there’s a lump of cognative dissonance to overcome to stand on the wrong side.
Last week my transfer flight at Amsterdam was cancelled, and I had to exit the airport and stay overnight. It was a physical effort to force myself to walk on the “wrong” side everywhere.
“The problem with that is that we travel on the LEFT in this country”
Indeed; that way we get fewer tornados than we otherwise would. Just look at the USA where they choose to drive on the tornado-promoting side of the road.
But underground there is no risk of tornados so we can do what we jolly well like. And so the sensible habit is adopted that those who want to be stationary stand on the right so that those who want to travel, i.e. walk, run, or tumble, do so on the left. All very logical.
It’s easy enough to persuade people to comply with a social convention, when there’s nothing at stake (like standing on the right). Returning to Tim’s subject, bond investors aren’t interested in social conventions; they’re investors seeking to maximise profit. No amount of nudging and cajoling will work.
@jgh While we do keep to the right side of the road when it comes to hurtling along in tin cans with quite some kinetic energy to them, the dutch *really* don’t give a toss about that whole left/right thing…
Maybe at places like Schiphol where large masses of people move through corridors, but everywhere else… Not so much… Notoriously so…. 😉
Just don’t walk on a bicycle path, is all… 😛
A fine bit of post event rationalisation, Norman. But it was just a demonstration of how individuals can exhibit different behaviours for quite trivial reasons. I”ll confess confronted with an escalator I too will walk up/down it. Just because it’s there I suppose.
BIS,
“In the period before the particular even people will have made all sorts of decisions about actions could make them earlier or later, but this 20 seconds is somehow important. Important enough it’s been the subject of arguments & even violence. People.”
Something I’ve generally observed is that a lot of people don’t do the “big picture” thing and it really sticks out with travel.
Like you get these people on the Swindon to Oxford road overtaking, going past lorries, but by the time you get to the dual carriageway, you can see them, and they’re only 10 seconds ahead of you. And they’ve had to spend £10K+ to get a GTi/M series to do that sort of overtaking that saves them 10 seconds a trip, which is probably worth about £100 a year in saved time.
Or people I know who complain about the cost of parking who are spending thousands per year running a car they barely drive, and paying for taxis would be cheaper.
“ Just don’t walk on a bicycle path, is all… ”
I can think of only one worse social crime a Brit could make in the Netherlands, and I committed it when I was in the Army, inadvertently speak German to a Dutchman. If you’re lucky you’ll get a curt “we can speak English.
“ A fine bit of post event rationalisation, Norman. But it was just a demonstration of how individuals can exhibit different behaviours for quite trivial reasons. ”
When I was working in London in a sedentary job and living in hotels I had a policy of walking up the stairs in the office it was only e floors, although a bit higher than a standard floor it sometimes got me there faster as well.
At tube stations I walked the steps if it was about the same as three floors, any longer
I walked up the escalator. Although I admit if I was in a rush then it was up the escalator.
I hated walking down the escalator and often wouldn’t.
In late 90s I once spent two weeks cycling between Den Bosch and PSV for work. The route passed a school yard where all the little ones would run up to the fence laughing at me. I mentioned this to a work colleague:
“Oooh, you wear a helmet don’t you” he asked
“I do”
“In Netherlands it is worn because you might fall off”, with the clear implication that the rider could look like a mong to the school kids.
So there are different cultures, but they can share a joke. But that changed when they said you couldn’t joke about the writer of a 7th century book.
@BiND… ummm.. yeeesss… That’d most certainly do it….
@Bongo That collegue should have left the “could” away, but (s)he was probably polite in pointing out one of the most common Mistakes Made By Foreigners. Most likely desperate trying not to gin like a maniac telling you… 😉
Even in this day and age, when you see behelmeted cyclists, usually in lycra, who are not obviously part of one of the bicycle racing gangs ( weekends), or Office Dorks ( weekdays ) you can safely assume they’re english tourists, or tourists who use english as their primary foreign language.
@WB
Like you get these people on the Swindon to Oxford road overtaking, going past lorries, but by the time you get to the dual carriageway, you can see them, and they’re only 10 seconds ahead of you.
It’s a very good example of a failure to influence people’s behavior. There are speed limit signs & cameras & unmarked police cars with radar & endless safety propaganda but you can’t stop people collecting speeding tickets. Or the rear end of artics. That guy will literally risk his life to be the car in front of you.
Holborn Tube advises passengers to go up two by two like the animals.
Reasoning to avoid congestion underground.
Likewise, roundabouts are great, until you reach a certain level of congestion, when the system glues up and you get something like the Place de l’Etoile.
When I was working in London in a sedentary job and living in hotels I had a policy of walking up the stairs in the office it was only e floors
I feel bad for the people whose offices were on the (i+1)th floor.
BinD and Grikath above, I have committed both those heinous crimes in Clogland: walked in a cycle lane and spoke kraut, and remember the looks of utter contempt I received from the natives…….
“ When I was working in London in a sedentary job and living in hotels I had a policy of walking up the stairs in the office it was only e floors
I feel bad for the people whose offices were on the (i+1)th floor.”
Damn, 3,
‘…underground there is no risk of tornados …’
Nonsense, you just can’t see them because of all the dirt in the way. Quicksand is really people being sucked into underground tornados.
If you shpeak German with a lishp, it’s as close to D(e)ut(s)ch as makes no difference. 🙂