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Tim Worstall

Don\’t Panic!

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Paul Fisher, the executive director of markets and a member of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said central bank policymakers would like rates to increase as much as tenfold from their current historic low of 0.5pc as soon as possible.

No, this doesn\’t mean that mortgage rates are about to rise tenfold.

According to separate Bank data, variable rate homeowners are paying interest of 3.28pc on average compared with 4.34pc for those on fixed rates…

It means they might triple though.

Banks don\’t make their money off the total interest paid. They make their money off the difference (minus credit losses of course) between what they borrow at and what they lend at. The margin.

So, if base is 0.5% and floating rates are 3.28, then base rates rise to 5%, we might expect mortgage rates to move to 8.78 %.

This isn\’t an exact calculation, I am not a financial adviser, take this at your own risk etc.

But as an illustration it\’s good enough. Me, I\’m going to be doing a little more freelance work I think (I am indeed one of those lucky people who can pick up extra work as and when desired) to pay down the mortgage a little faster I think.

From the tax justice network

They point us to this article.

The future of socialism in Europe is very much in doubt. Several countries are teetering on the brink of insolvency as a result of decades of excessive government spending for the welfare state. High taxes have handled the burden in the past, but people are now living longer, they are drawing longer pensions and healthcare costs have continued to escalate. At some point, the working population will no longer be able to support everyone else who depends on the government for their general welfare.

Well, yes.

It\’s just I didn\’t expect the TJN to be making this point really.

Interesting point

However, I am now a bit confused about the stated reasons of our progressive left of why they oppose Wal-Mart. After all, leftoids like to educate us that selling food and other necessities to ordinary people for low prices is bad when Wal-Mart does it. But when Hugo Chavez does the exact same thing, except that he also wields the power of the gun to force those capitalist pig farmers and factory owners to give up their products for even less, this suddenly becomes praiseworthy!

On those subsidies for fossil fuels

Yes, they really do exist. Subsidies for the use of fossil fuels. Obviously this is insane when we\’ve also got huge subsidies for the use of non-fossil fuels.

The thing is though, it\’s different countries offering the different subsidies. It\’s the rich western countries subsidising non-fossil while the fossil fuel subsidies are all in poor and developing nations.

Like Iran for example:

However, one area that could lead to serious damage to the economy is the price of diesel. As of Sunday, the Iranian government increased its price from 1.6c to 15c a litre – a 900% increase. It is envisaged that soon this will increase to 35c.

It\’s said (by a real international agency, not mere scuttlebutt) that Iran actually coughs up $100 billion a year in such subsidies to gas and oil use. It\’s an entirely insane level of subsidy in an economy of that size: some 25% of the economy at market exchange rates, perhaps 10% at PPP.

Removing such a distortion is obviously good economics. But as so often is true, it could well be what turns the masses against the Islamic government and is therefore bad politics.

Update for Matthew.

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That\’s the Tehran skyline. I\’d take it as a resonable argument against the Iranian Govt subsidising the use of fossil fuels.

Well, yes

The evidence is plain enough. In the wake of the election the proportion of new MPs educated privately stood at 35%, against 13% in 1997.

Tories are more likely to have been privately educated, Labour to have been State so.

So we\’d expect the ratio to change between the Tories going down under a Labour landslide and the Tories (just about) winning an election.

The Big Society spotted in the wild

Lieutenant Mark Kent, who popped out of a red Salvation Army lorry marked \”Emergency Response Unit\” to fetch more polystyrene cups for tea and coffee, thought people were cheerier than they had been the previous day.

He and his colleagues had handed out around 800 free teas and coffees this morning and were in it for the long haul.

\”We were here from 4am to 7pm yesterday and we\’ll be doing the same today,\” he said. \”But people are in a good mood today. They appear to know the score today and they know they\’re here to wait.\”

It\’s not like this sort of thing is going to replace the NHS but it is both the Big Society thing and also Burke\’s little platoons.

You know, just peeps doing things for other peeps without the government either telling them to or paying them to do so.

The European Commission speaks out!

Heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures were still severely disrupting air traffic in Europe on Tuesday, with Germany particularly badly hit as European officials criticized airport authorities for failing to prepare for the bad weather…….Brussels airport cancelled flights because it was running out of deicing fluid,…….

As the disruption continued, the European Commission criticized airport operators in western Europe for being ill-prepared to cope with bad weather.

The commission, the European Union\’s executive arm, may draft new rules if airport operators can\’t voluntarily take action to plan better for severe weather, Siim Kallas, the commission\’s transport-policy chief, said in a statement.

\”I am extremely concerned about the level of disruption to travel across Europe caused by severe snow,\” Mr. Kallas said. \”It is unacceptable and should not happen again.\”

Would it be impolite of me to point out that the European officials, European Commission and Siim Kallas are all highly likely to be trying to use that closed Brussels airport to get home for the holidays?

Economic tradeoffs about extreme and rare weather be damned when it\’s only the taxpayers\’ money being wasted to reunite a politician with his Saturnalia Feast, eh?

No, really, this is glorious

So, the auditors to the big banks were worried, back in financial crisis time, that they might not in fact be going concerns.

And they were right to be so of course. Banking is an inherently frail industry and even more so when bank runs are breaking out. For of course bank runs are what make frational reserve banking fragile.

Now, if an auditor thinks that the company he/she is auditing is not a going concern they\’re supposed to say so. Except, of course, saying that a bank is not a going concern is exactly what precipitates that bank run and thus makes it not a going concern. The simple qualification of the accounts is all that is required to cause the run (or at least possibly this is so).

So, what did our auditors do at this point? They went off to the government and said, in effect, \”well, you know, these banks might not be going concerns. We might have to qualify their acounts. And that, of course, would precipitate the runs. So Mr. Government, whadda\’ ya\’ gonna do about it, eh?\”

To which the response was \”we\’ll make sure they don\’t go bust as a result of bank runs\”.

Phew, right, so they are going concerns then and no qualification to the accounts is necessary, no qualification that would cause the bank runs to occur.

Now, this looks to me like the auditors using their judgement. You know, checking with the Government about support for the banks before they bring the entire financial system crashing down around all our heads sorta\’ thing?

And what does our favourite retired accountant from Wandsworth have to say about this?

But what is becoming increasingly clear is that a society where playing by the rules is the aim is not sustainable. Auditors and tax accountants are meant to exercise their professional judgement. And candidly I don’t think they are. And that is dragging down the whole basis of the corporate edifice with risk to the entire market system, at cost to us all.

Those with a neoliberal bent who argue otherwise threaten us all. The time for a revival of the exercise of sound judgement is now.

Eh?

No, not quite Richard

Oh what silly boys you are

Yes I’ve run companies and there is nothing to stop me doing so

And yes my wife has owned shares in them

Fulcrum Publishing was set up to publish her articles and my software. It was owned 50 / 50 as a result

It turned out – I agree – software made more. She decided that writing was not for her. It’s one reason the company stopped trading. But the intention was right throughout. It’s why |I now argue that limited companies are not suitable for use in such situations.

The Tax Gap and its successor – Tax Research LLP – have both had massive input form my wife. She reads much of what I write, comments extensively, edits, helps make strategic decisions, is fully aware of financial activity and more besides. The real question is why she has been underpaid.

Except as you note she’s a part time GP – but GPs are rightly well paid and do pay NIC and so income was not shifted to secure tax advantage but reflected work done and NIC was not paid as the alternative measure was self employment where NIC was being paid in full as required by law – a point I have made before

No, not really. For the income was paid as dividends from the company, not as pay from the company. Which alleviates the need to pay employers\’ national insurance. Some 12 or 13% of income.

Now, I do agree absolutely that there are (at least) three possible ways of handling this income stream. As self-employment income, attracting a very light to none at all NI charge and standard income tax or higher rate income tax.

As a company, with the income being paid out as wages. This would attract at least one set of NI payments and possibly two (depends upon total income in the year) and that income tax.

The third, which is the one chosen, is as a company and then a small amount is paid as wages. This attracts no NI charges. But the usual income tax at whatever rate. The rest of the income being paid as dividends, which attract no NI and the usual income taxes.

Except, no, not quite. For in the years Fulcrum was operating (or at least some of them) there was a £10,000 tax free profit allowance for small companies. Thus that share of the profits was not taxed as profits to the company. However, when those profits were paid out as a dividend they were, in common with all dividend payments, regarded as having already paid basic rate income tax. So the only income tax to be paid upon that dividend income would be higher rate such, if total income in that year was sufficient to make such payable.

Now, all three of these structures are entirely valid, all three are entirely legal. My point is simply that the one chosen was the one which made the most of the available options to reduce, entirely legally, the tax due on said income.

And this is the personal behaviour of the man who tells us that using all of the entirely legal available options to reduce tax paid is immoral.

That\’s the dichotomy. Not that a retired accountant and his wife have used every Englishman\’s right to order their affairs so as to reduce the amount sent to The Treasury. But that that same retired accountant and his wife are running a highly vocal campaign to insist that the rest of us may not use those same laws so as to order our affairs and reduce the amount sent to The Treasury.

I suppose we could invoke St Augustine of Hippo and his \”Not yet Oh Lord\” but even he regarded that as a wry commentary upon human desires, not the way to really organise our affairs.

Terribly amusing press release of the day

Via, this

The cold snap may have only just bitten but Heathrow\’s snow team has been working for months to ensure the UK\’s hub airport will once again be prepared for the onset of winter.

With an extra half a million pounds invested in equipment this year, Heathrow’s airside department run constant checks of runway and taxiway areas, applying de-icing and of course clearing any snow and debris away.

Heathrow\’s specialist teams – which includes 50 highly trained staff and more than 60 hi-tech vehicles – have been preparing since the end of last winter to do everything they can to minimise delays in the face of wintry conditions.

The airport employs a fleet of snow ploughs and de-icing vehicles to clear and prepare runways and taxiways at the airport\’s specialist snow base which sits in between the two runways. Heathrow\’s airside operations teams have spent the summer refreshing their training with plans being discussed with airlines, baggage handlers and air traffic control to ensure a coordinated response.

On the true meaning of indigenous peoples

Quite lovely to see Guardianistas tying themselves up in knots trying to prove that there are indeed indigenous peoples who do and should have special rights but that Britons are not such.

Even if they are indigenous.

The distinction seems to be that indigenous people must be an oppressed minority struggling for their rights, not just the people who were there first or who have historically been there, wherever there is.

Which would seem to make Britons an indigenous people when considering the EU for example: we are an oppressed minority fighting for our historical rights of fair trial by jury, the Common Law, truth and honesty in governance and so on. Oh, and hanging bureaucrats of course.

Further, just to further the BNP\’s sort of racial twattery, that would make Britons an indigenous people worthy of having their rights fought for if as and when they are a minority.

It\’s a rather strange way of making the definition don\’t you think?

Better rather to say that all the citizens of a polity have the same rights, all of which should be fought for all the time, no?

Here endeth the labour theory of value

Mr. Chakrabortty has a write up of an interesting little experiment on e-Bay.

Yet monetary cost and true worth are not the same thing at all, which is one reason why accountants, loss-adjusters and Alan Yentob all come in for such stick. It\’s also why Rob Walker and Josh Glenn were able to conduct one of the most life-affirmingly cheeky studies I have seen for ages.

Two American writers interested in how objects are valued, Walker and Glenn have spent the last couple of years flogging stuff on eBay. I say stuff, but what I really mean is utter tosh: an old Pez dispenser, an ugly mug that last saw light of day in 1976, an abandoned jam jar of marbles. This is the sort of loft-dwelling detritus your mum wouldn\’t even ask your permission before chucking away. Yet each item they put on sale on the internet was accompanied by a story meant to add a bit of context or interest.

Paired with their new biographies, here\’s what happened: a Utah snow globe that originally cost 99 cents fetched $59; an old shot glass was snapped up for $76, and even the jar of marbles took in $50. In all, 100 items that cost the authors $128.74 were sold for a total of $3,612.51.

The secret was that they attatched stories to these homely items and it was the story which raised the prices on offer.

Now it is an interesting story but of course Mr. Chakrabortty, being the economics leader writer for The Guardian, entirely misses the point of it.

This kills the labour theory of value stone dead, buries it at the crossroads, head cut off and a stake through its heart. It does the same to any theory of \”true value\”, from Plato through to Marx, by way of Thomas Aquinas and even Adam Smith\’s flirtations with the ltov.

And in the process it kills the major underlying moral justification for communism, many flavours of socialism and similar nonsense from the right (Poujadism for example) and even retail price maintenance schemes.

The exchange value of an item does not depend upon the labour that went into its manufacture. Nor the resources used to make it. Nor any other calculable absolute: it depends entirely upon the always subjective and often arbitrary value put upon it by the participant(s) in the exchange. And that\’s it, there is no other possible method of valuation.

Thus things are worth what they can get in a market. There is no other possible or achievable method of calculation.

And yes, this does mean the value of the environment, the value of life, the value of a nesting area for wading birds and so on. They are worth what people value them at, no more, no less. A statistical life in the US is worth $5-$8 million, because this is what, by their actions, people value such a statistical life at. A statistical life in DR Congo is worth less than that because that is what people value a statistical life in DR Congo at.

We can certainly say that the moral value of a life in the UK is equal to the moral value of one in DR Congo. But we cannot say that the economic value of such is: for by their very actions human beings do not place equal economic values on the two. Similarly we can say that, as many environmentalists do, that the value of publicly owned forests is huge, vast, far greater than any amount that could be paid for them. And that might even be true of said environmentalists. But it\’s not true of humanity in aggregate and thus is in fact not true.

For the value of an item is its exchange value: no more and no less.

There\’s an easy solution to this Polly

How many people live in Britain? The census next March is supposed to tell us. Population matters desperately for fair distribution of the wretchedly dwindling sums handed out to councils, police and the health service.

Simply move to a system where local services are paid for by locally raised taxes.

As happens in Denmark and Sweden of course.

We do want to be more like the Nordic social democracies, don\’t we?

Fairly starkly put

Andrew Bosomworth, head of Pimco\’s portfolio management in Europe, said current policies are untenable in the absence of fiscal union and will lead to a break-up of the euro.

\”Greece, Ireland and Portugal cannot get back on their feet without either their own currency or large transfer payments,\” he told German newspaper Die Welt.

Those really are the only two choices available.

Either the richer countries have to pour money in, in the same way that the richer parts of the UK or US have to pour money into the poorer parts, or different currencies are needed.

And this is nothing, nothing at all, to do with Keynesian or neo-liberal solutions to anything at all. With left or right.

There is one more thing though. How much will those richer areas have to pour in? I know I\’ve asked this before but I haven\’t been given a good answer.

It obviously has to be more than 1 or 2% of GDP: for those are the sorts of amounts that the EU budget already shifts around and we\’re all clear that that isn\’t enough.

So it will have to be more than that. 5% of GDP maybe? 10% of GDP?

But here\’s the real crunch point. Given the generally high tax regime in those richer areas of the eurozone already, is there actually room to lift another 5 or 10% of GDP in taxation? Don\’t forget, this won\’t be a transfer within that domestic economy, it\’d be a transfer out of it.

Is there room to tax 5% of GDP in, say, Sweden?

Update

I am told by my man in the know that the numbers are:

Bigger than Versailles as a share of German GDP. Perhaps 4pc, or 100bn euros a year from Germany alone. About 160bn for the teutonic bloc, forever.

Is this economically viable? Raising another 4% of GDP in taxation in the rich countries without entirely screwing over economic growth?

And if not, what should be cut from what government currently does to pay for it?

And finally, does anyone at all think this is politically viable?

Echoes of George Best here

Leslie Baleham, 64, was jailed for a year after raking in thousands after turning his home in Radford, Notts, into a den for sexual encounters.

When investigators raided the brothel, they discovered the married accountant in bed with his Chinese madame Ping Ping Li with cash strewn across the bed sheets.

Police counted more than 400 punters visiting the brothel during three months, which earned Baleham more than £57,000.

Waiter carries bottle of champagne up to George Best\’s hotel room, to find him in/on the bed, surrounded with cash, accompanied by a naked Miss World.

\”What went wrong George?\” was his anguished cry.

To the more serious point: why are we jailing someone whio has facilitated consensual commerce? I thought we were trying to get this economy thing moving again?

On the price of scrap metal these days

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€30 of steel scrap or €800,000 of artwork?

It is thought that one of the pieces the thieves were trying to offload for scrap was a steel sculpture by Basque artist Chillida titled \”Topos IV\”, valued at 800,000 euros (£675,000).

Detectives at the time said the robbery had the hallmarks of \”an inside job\” and were likely to have been stolen to order for a collector.

But the discovery of the intact collection in a lock-up in Getafe, close to the industrial estate from where they were stolen, and the attempts to sell the sculptures for scrap have led police to reconsider their initial theory.

\”It now appears more likely that we are dealing with amateurs,\” a police spokesman said.

Bloody right they were amateurs. Steel scrap is more like €300 a tonne these days…..

The sound of wind and fury, signifying nothing

Mr Cable says that, behind the scenes, the Tories and Liberal Democrats are fighting a “constant battle”, including over tax proposals. Likening the conflict to a war, he says he can always use the “nuclear option” of resignation. His departure from the Government would spell the end of the Coalition, he claims.

Vince is about the age to do a really convicing Lear isn\’t he?